101
FXUS63 KGLD 051830
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1130 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- ON SATURDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ON
EAST-TO-WEST ROUTES, SUCH AS INTERSTATE 70, WHERE CROSS WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST.
- NO OBVIOUS SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. SPEEDS SHOULD SUSTAIN AROUND 10-20 MPH, WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 25-40 MPH RANGE FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WITH THEM
CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO HOLD,
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL MAX OUT AROUND 60 DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA.
TONIGHT, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA. EASTERN COLORADO AND COUNTIES NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER
ARE LIKELY TO SEE WINDS BEGINS TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WITH THE WINDS AND SOME APPROACHING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH
THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FOR FRIDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS, THE
FRONT SHOULD ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS TIMING AND
THE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY BROAD, NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AT THIS TIME. PARTS OF EASTERN
COLORADO WILL LIKELY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA, BUT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT HOW LONG RH WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND HOW LONG THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE WHEN THE RH IS
LOW. WIND SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
TODAY, WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH, SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR LOCALES IN THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING, WHICH LEADS TO DECENT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND IMPACTS. A LOWER CHANCE SCENARIO
HAS THE FRONT AND 850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH QUICKER, PUTTING THE
AREA INTO THE STRONGER WIND GRADIENT FASTER. WITH THIS, WINDS
WOULD PROBABLY BE ABOUT 10 MPH FASTER THAN LISTED ABOVE. ANOTHER
SMALL THING IS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES THAT MOVE IN
NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THE TRI-STATE BORDER MAY SEE SOME
700-500MB MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH. WHILE TOO DRY AT THE SURFACE
FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION, IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
TOMORROW NIGHT, WINDS SHOULD START AROUND 10-20 MPH, BUT LOWER AS
THE LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY START IN THE 40S AND 50S, BUT COOL INTO THE
30S AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES CLEAR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN
INCREASINGLY SINUOUS AND AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE
CONUS LATE THIS WEEK.. CULMINATING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP,
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.. WHERE EPISODIC
PROGRESSIVE CYCLONES WILL PERIPHERALLY AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FRIDAY: SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, I.E. MODEST DAY-TO-DAY
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION AND TEMPERATURE. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES (COMPARED TO THU), ALBEIT STILL
ABOVE-AVERAGE.. WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60'S.
SATURDAY: EXPECT NOTICEABLY COOLER (ALBEIT NEAR-AVERAGE) HIGHS
AND BREEZY TO STRONG NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE HIGHLY
SENSITIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A COMPLEX, PROGRESSIVE MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS (FRI NIGHT) AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY (SAT), LENDING CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY TO WIND MAGNITUDE (HOW STRONG?) IN THE NWS GOODLAND
COUNTY WARNING AREA.. ESPECIALLY AT THIS RANGE. 00Z 11/05
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST SEVERAL WAVES
OR 'PULSES' OF COLD ADVECTION, THE FIRST (AND INITIAL NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT) OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR BY SUNRISE (~12Z SAT) AND THE
STRONGEST OF WHICH WOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFT-EVE. AT PRESENT,
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS (E.G. 00Z GFS) SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30-40 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH. WIND
OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-WEST ROUTES, SUCH
AS I-70, WHERE CROSS-WINDS WOULD BE STRONGEST. HAZE AND
LOCALIZED/EPHEMERAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ASSOC/W BLOWING
DUST MAY EXACERBATE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. GIVEN THAT THE INITIAL
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BY (OR AROUND)
SUNRISE.. AND THAT UNIFORM NORTH WINDS WOULD BE PRESENT
THEREAFTER, THROUGHOUT THE DAY.. WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ASSOC/W BLOWING DUST ARE NOT EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: WEAKENING NORTH WINDS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW, ON SUNDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. HOW MUCH BELOW-AVERAGE WILL HIGHLY
DEPEND UPON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE AND MAGNITUDE/WESTERN-EXTENT OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SATURDAY AFT-EVE. HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE VARIES BY A SOLID
~10F, RANGING ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 30'S AND LOWER 40'S TO
UPPER 40'S AND LOWER 50'S.. WARMEST IN COLORADO.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS THE DEEP, FULL-
LATITUDE EAST CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SPEEDS SHOULD BE
AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS. TONIGHT, A LOW
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND BRING WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND
40-45 KTS BETWEEN 200-600FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH THIS, BE
CAUTIOUS AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 03-12Z. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS TO BE MORE FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST
AS THE MORNING GOES ON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KAK
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