865
FXUS63 KGLD 052315
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
415 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
- ON SATURDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ON
EAST-TO-WEST ROUTES, SUCH AS INTERSTATE 70, WHERE CROSS WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST.
- NO OBVIOUS SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MST WED NOV 5 2025
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
SHIFT TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. SPEEDS SHOULD SUSTAIN AROUND 10-20 MPH, WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
THE 25-40 MPH RANGE FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER WITH THEM
CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE. DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO HOLD,
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. EVEN WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL MAX OUT AROUND 60 DUE TO THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA.
TONIGHT, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR NW KANSAS AND SW
NEBRASKA. EASTERN COLORADO AND COUNTIES NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER
ARE LIKELY TO SEE WINDS BEGINS TO SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST
LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA.
WITH THE WINDS AND SOME APPROACHING HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH
THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S.
FOR FRIDAY, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS, THE
FRONT SHOULD ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS TIMING AND
THE LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY BROAD, NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AT THIS TIME. PARTS OF EASTERN
COLORADO WILL LIKELY APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA, BUT
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD LIMIT HOW LONG RH WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND HOW LONG THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE WHEN THE RH IS
LOW. WIND SPEEDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
TODAY, WITH MOST OF THE AREA SEEING 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH, SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR LOCALES IN THE WEST. MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING, WHICH LEADS TO DECENT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND IMPACTS. A LOWER CHANCE SCENARIO
HAS THE FRONT AND 850MB LOW MOVING THROUGH QUICKER, PUTTING THE
AREA INTO THE STRONGER WIND GRADIENT FASTER. WITH THIS, WINDS
WOULD PROBABLY BE ABOUT 10 MPH FASTER THAN LISTED ABOVE. ANOTHER
SMALL THING IS THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES THAT MOVE IN
NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER, THE TRI-STATE BORDER MAY SEE SOME
700-500MB MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH. WHILE TOO DRY AT THE SURFACE
FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION, IT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
TOMORROW NIGHT, WINDS SHOULD START AROUND 10-20 MPH, BUT LOWER AS
THE LOW PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY START IN THE 40S AND 50S, BUT COOL INTO THE
30S AS WINDS WEAKEN AND SKIES CLEAR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
FRIDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE
UPSTREAM, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LEAVES THE AREA INBETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS, LIKELY
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND WINDS THAT ARE GENERALLY BELOW
15 MPH.
SATURDAY, A FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
AREA. PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 1 TO 2MB PER HOUR SHOULD HELP WINDS
STRENGTHEN TO BE AROUND 15-30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE, BUT HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS CLOSE TO THE AREA AND
TIGHTENS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MAYBE A LOCALIZED PLUME OF DUST
WOULD BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WITH STRONGER WINDS, THE WINDS
THEMSELVES COULD BECOME A HAZARD, THOUGH THE DUST MAY STILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO MIXING HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 6000-8000FT. THE HIGH MIXING
HEIGHTS WOULD LIKELY HELP DUST STAY DIFFUSE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S, UNLESS THE FRONT DELAYS WHICH WOULD ALSO
FOR SOME 60S IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO START OFF COOL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT MORE INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN WARM BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. WINDS WOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER UNLESS A SHORTWAVE CAN
BRING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW. EVEN THEN, IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD SEE GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH. PRECIPITATION IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS
TIME WITH THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 413 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AT BOTH TERMINALS AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
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