444
FXUS63 KGLD 060711
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1211 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA; MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- ON SATURDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ON
EAST-TO-WEST ROUTES, SUCH AS INTERSTATE 70, WHERE CROSS WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST.
- NO OBVIOUS SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THANKS TO PRESSURE RISES, THE PBL HAS
REMAINED MIXED AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS ARE BEING REPORTED AFTER
7Z IN THE CENTRAL CWA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S,
POTENTIALLY EVEN LOW 40S FOR THE WINDIER AREAS. EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ARE HAVING LIGHTER WINDS, BUT THE LLJ AT 850 MB IS FLOWING
AROUND 30-40 KTS. WHILE THE ELEVATED WINDS AREN'T HELPING THE LOW
TEMPERATURES MUCH, WHICH ARE STILL FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S, THEY WILL HELP THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN THIS MORNING, A SATURATED MID LAYER
AND 500 MB VORTICITY WILL LEAD TO SOME VIRGA AND POSSIBLY SPRINKLES.
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SPRINKLES THIS MORNING
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36, BUT LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS
BURLINGTON, CO TO COLBY, KS MAY SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE BIG
LIMITING FACTOR IS THE RATHER LARGE DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND THE MOIST LAYER. THIS DRY LAYER WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 550 MB. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE BETWEEN 11 AND 21Z.
TODAY, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WINDS WILL CALM A
BIT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND GUST UP AROUND 20-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO AROUND 70 TODAY,
THANKS IN PART TO THE OVERNIGHT WAA.
TONIGHT, AS OUR TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, A RIDGE WILL START TO
BUILD IN. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AROUND 1 MB AND HOUR WILL KEEP
SURFACE WINDS FLOWING PRETTY WELL OVERNIGHT, KEEPING THE PBL MIXED.
THIS WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
NORTHWESTERLY GUST AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THIS
WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS UNDER THE 25 KTS MARK AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT TO THE
EAST, A LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CLOSE IN ON THE CWA. ITS COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO START IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 6-12Z
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOW 30S IN THE WEST AND LOW
40S IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
FRIDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS SWINGING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE
UPSTREAM, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LEAVES THE AREA INBETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS, LIKELY
WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND WINDS THAT ARE GENERALLY BELOW
15 MPH.
SATURDAY, A FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING WITH
THE CURRENT CONSENSUS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE AND A COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
AREA. PRESSURE RISES OF ABOUT 1 TO 2MB PER HOUR SHOULD HELP WINDS
STRENGTHEN TO BE AROUND 15-30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE, BUT HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE IF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS CLOSE TO THE AREA AND
TIGHTENS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND MAYBE A LOCALIZED PLUME OF DUST
WOULD BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL IMPACTS. WITH STRONGER WINDS, THE WINDS
THEMSELVES COULD BECOME A HAZARD, THOUGH THE DUST MAY STILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO MIXING HEIGHTS OF ABOUT 6000-8000FT. THE HIGH MIXING
HEIGHTS WOULD LIKELY HELP DUST STAY DIFFUSE. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S, UNLESS THE FRONT DELAYS WHICH WOULD ALSO
FOR SOME 60S IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO START OFF COOL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT MORE INTO THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN WARM BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. WINDS WOULD BE A BIT LIGHTER UNLESS A SHORTWAVE CAN
BRING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW. EVEN THEN, IT IS UNLIKELY WE
WOULD SEE GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH. PRECIPITATION IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS
TIME WITH THE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL AT BOTH SITES FOR THE PERIOD. KMCK
WILL SPEND THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH LLWS OVERHEAD AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE. AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES BY AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL WEAKEN,
INCLUDING SURFACE WINDS. BY 19Z, EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DOMINATE.
KGLD CAN EXPECT TO SEE GUSTY CONDITIONS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT. AROUND
SUNRISE, A MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT WILL MIX CLOSER TO THE SURFACE,
LEADING TO LLWS FROM DIRECTIONAL CHANGE. DURING THIS TIME, THE
SURFACE GUSTS SHOULD WEAKEN, BUT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
ADDITIONAL 20 KTS WILL MIX DOWN. ONCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
PASSES KGLD, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20-28 KTS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET, THEN GUSTS WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 15-22
KTS.
ADDITIONAL LLWS IS POSSIBLE AFTER 6Z FRIDAY, BUT NOT CERTAIN.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page