443
FXUS63 KGLD 061722
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1022 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA; MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
- ON SATURDAY, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES, ESPECIALLY ON
EAST-TO-WEST ROUTES, SUCH AS INTERSTATE 70, WHERE CROSS WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST.
- NO OBVIOUS SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 348 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION (0348 AM MST): THE THREAT FOR BLOWING
DUST TODAY IS FAIRLY LOW. THE MOST LIKELY PLACE TO SEE BLOWING
DUST WOULD BE NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AROUND 21Z. SURFACE WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO EFFICIENTLY LOFT DUST. IF WIND
GUSTS CONSISTENTLY GO ABOVE ~33 KTS, THERE WOULD BE MORE OF A
CONCERN. AS IT STANDS, MAXIMUM GUST LOOK TO BE A FEW KTS SHY OF
THAT THRESHOLD. ADDITIONALLY, IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO
FALL THIS MORNING, AS THE CAMS ARE KEEN TO BELIEVE, THE BLOWING
DUST THREAT WOULD BE EFFECTIVELY 0.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THANKS TO PRESSURE RISES, THE PBL
HAS REMAINED MIXED AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS ARE BEING REPORTED
AFTER 7Z IN THE CENTRAL CWA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 30S, POTENTIALLY EVEN LOW 40S FOR THE WINDIER AREAS.
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE HAVING LIGHTER WINDS, BUT THE
LLJ AT 850 MB IS FLOWING AROUND 30-40 KTS. WHILE THE ELEVATED
WINDS AREN'T HELPING THE LOW TEMPERATURES MUCH, WHICH ARE STILL
FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, THEY WILL HELP THE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
AS OUR NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN THIS MORNING, A SATURATED MID
LAYER AND 500 MB VORTICITY WILL LEAD TO SOME VIRGA AND POSSIBLY
SPRINKLES. LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING
SPRINKLES THIS MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. 36, BUT
LOCATIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS BURLINGTON, CO TO COLBY, KS MAY SEE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE BIG LIMITING FACTOR IS THE RATHER LARGE
DRY LAYER BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND THE MOIST LAYER. THIS DRY
LAYER WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE UP TO
AROUND 550 MB. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BE BETWEEN 11 AND 21Z.
TODAY, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WINDS WILL
CALM A BIT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AND GUST UP AROUND
20-30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO
AROUND 70 TODAY, THANKS IN PART TO THE OVERNIGHT WAA.
TONIGHT, AS OUR TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST, A RIDGE WILL
START TO BUILD IN. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AROUND 1 MB AND HOUR
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FLOWING PRETTY WELL OVERNIGHT, KEEPING
THE PBL MIXED. THIS WILL WORK TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S. NORTHWESTERLY GUST AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
THIS WILL KEEP WIND GUSTS UNDER THE 25 KTS MARK AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, AS THE HIGH
MOVES OUT TO THE EAST, A LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CLOSE IN
ON THE CWA. ITS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO START IMPACTING THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AROUND 6-12Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
INTO THE LOW 30S IN THE WEST AND LOW 40S IN THE EAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: AN INCREASINGLY SINUOUS AND AMPLIFIED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CULMINATE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A DEEP, FULL-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST.. WHERE A COMPLEX, PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL
PERIPHERALLY AFFECT THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE FORM OF A SERIES
OF DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES ON SATURDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TRANSITION TO A LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY: EXPECT NEAR-AVERAGE HIGHS AND BREEZY TO STRONG NORTH
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A MODEST EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. 00Z 11/06 OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST TWO
DISTINCT 'PULSES' OF COLD ADVECTION, THE FIRST (AND INITIAL
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT) OF WHICH WILL OCCUR BY SUNRISE (~12Z SAT)
AND THE SECOND, STRONGER OF WHICH WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AFTER SUNSET FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA).. AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS (CHARACTERIZED BY 850 MB TEMPS
AROUND -14C) SURGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ASIDE FROM A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/ONSET
AND WESTERN-MOST EXTENT OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION DURING THE
LATE AFT-EVE.. GUIDANCE IS OTHERWISE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-45 KNOT NORTHERLY
FLOW WITHIN/THROUGHOUT A FAIRLY DEEP (6000 TO 8000 FT AGL)
MIXED- LAYER ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.. SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS ~35-45 MPH AND GUSTS TO
50-55 MPH. HOMOGENOUS FLOW (LITTLE/NO VERTICAL VARIATION IN WIND
VELOCITY) IN A MIXED-LAYER (DEEP MIXED-LAYERS, IN PARTICULAR)
TENDS TO FOSTER HOMOGENOUS SURFACE WINDS -- I.E. A LOWER GUST:
SUSTAINED RATIO. WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES ON EAST-
WEST ROUTES, SUCH AS I-70, WHERE CROSS-WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
HAZE AND LOCAL/EPHEMERAL REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH BLOWING DUST MAY LOCALLY EXACERBATE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.
GIVEN THAT [1] THE INITIAL NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED
TO OCCUR BY SUNRISE AND [2] THAT WINDS WILL LIKELY BE UNIFORM IN
BOTH DIRECTION AND MAGNITUDE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.. WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING DUST IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: WEAKENING NORTH WINDS AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS IN THE 40'S) WILL FOLLOW, ON SUNDAY, AS 1035-1040 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION. EXPECT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES (UPPER 30'S TO LOWER 40'S) IN EASTERN /LOWER
ELEVATION/ PORTIONS OF THE AREA.. IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
MODIFIED CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS (850 MB TEMPS -8 TO -10C)
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS-NE.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS THE DEEP, FULL-
LATITUDE EAST CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE FLATTENS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.. WITH NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(IN THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER 70'S) ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE ~58F.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST THU NOV 6 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH
TERMINALS. HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ABOVE 10000FT IS FORECAST
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES.
AFTER THAT, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 KTS. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF EITHER TERMINAL SEES MORE SUNSHINE
AND MIXING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS
THE JET DEVELOPS AGAIN AT A FEW HUNDRED FEET WITH SPEEDS AROUND
40-45 KTS. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE SHORTER LIVED AS AN 850MB HIGH
MOVES IN LATE IN THE NIGHT AND WEAKENS THE FLOW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KAK
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