036
FXUS63 KGLD 121850
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1150 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA MAY OCCASIONALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE MILE.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83/23 AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES IN COLORADO.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, 60S, AND MAYBE 70S RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
IT OVER APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
18Z. RAP DEVELOPS FOG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT NORTHWEST KANSAS
COUNTIES THIS MORNING, WITH SATURATION DEEP ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE
AS WELL. HOWEVER, HRRR DOES NOT SHOW THIS, AND LAMP VISIBILITIES
DO NOT EITHER, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT WILL MENTION SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THAT AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STALLS OUT IN FAR NORTHEAST CORNER
FROM MCCOOK TO NORTON WHERE THEY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT. LEANED
TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THOSE AREAS
WHERE TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S, BUT STAYED NEAR
GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 50S
IN COLORADO WHICH WILL SEE THE MOST AFTERNOON SUN. COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL
WHERE WIND DIRECTION HAS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT, BUT WESTERLY
WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL PREVENT FOG FORMATION. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 20S.
THE FRONT SURGES SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY WITH BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BY THE AFTERNOON GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW ONLY LIMITED MIXING WITH A STOUT INVERSION ABOVE 850 MB,
SO DO NOT THINK WINDS WILL GET MUCH HIGHER. THERE WILL BE A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S FROM MCCOOK TO NORTON,
TO AROUND 60 IN CHEYENNE COUNTY, COLORADO. LOW TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS, PERHAPS SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN FAR EASTERN AREAS FROM MCCOOK TO NORTON AND HILL CITY.
ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT WHICH ESSENTIALLY BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
HIGHWAYS 25/83. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S, WHILE WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
AND 50S, POSSIBLY LOWER 60S IN COLORADO. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT ONCE AGAIN
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE LIMITED BY AN INVERSION AROUND 800 MB.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MILD AS THE AREA SITS
UNDER ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE A FEW SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE
THROUGH, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH A FEW 70S POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA. THE ONLY POTENTIAL CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS SOME BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ZONAL,
BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD THE TROUGH SWING LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND INCREASE WINDS A BIT.
WINDS WOULD BE CLOSER TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO LOWER INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE SYSTEM (LIKELY
ON THURSDAY). FRIDAY WOULD THEN SEE THE AREA WARM UP AHEAD OF
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM SHOULD THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY STAY FAR
ENOUGH NORTH, THEN CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST AS DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF THE SYSTEM DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE THE MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD WEST AND IMPACT KGLD AROUND 8-18Z TOMORROW
MORNING.
KMCK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING WHEN THEY WILL WORSEN TO IFR OR LIFR BETWEEN 11-17Z.
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, CONDITIONS WILL START IMPROVING.
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY LOW
LEVEL ICING, ARE EXPECTED AT KMCK TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
VISIBILITIES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2-3
SM, HOWEVER THERE IS A 30% CHANCE LESS THAN 1/2 SM VISIBILITIES
OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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