946
FXUS63 KGLD 122120
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA MAY LEAD TO SLICK SURFACES AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES,
IMPACTING TRAVEL.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83/23 AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES IN COLORADO.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, 60S, AND MAYBE 70S RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE CWA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE
LEFT THE AREA, BUT NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STICK AROUND
OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH, THE EASTERN 1/3 OF
THE CWA COULD SEE SOUTHEASTERN FLOW INTO THE MORNING SATURDAY. IF
THIS OCCURS, FOG WILL LIKELY FORM. IF THE AXIS SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA BEFORE SUNRISE, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AND FOG WOULD
BE UNLIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, IF THE SURFACE LEVEL MOISTURE DOES REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND THE FORECAST -1 TO -3 MICROBARS OF OMEGA
OCCUR, DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR. IN THIS SCENARIO, THERE IS A 70% CHANCE A
LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE WILL FORM OVER NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES FROM
FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS COULD EXTEND TO THE WEST, AS FAR TRENTON, NE.
IT'S ALSO WORTH NOTING GUIDANCE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S, LARGELY KEPT THIS
"WARM" FROM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A 25-30% CHANCE THE
MOISTURE CLEARS OUT AND LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA.
BOILED DOWN, THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON, NE TO HOXIE, KS AND A 40% CHANCE OF
PATCHY FREEZING FOG EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SATURDAY MORNING. EITHER OF
THESE WOULD LEAD TO A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE, CAUSING IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL SATURDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, A HIGH WILL BE COMING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, LEADING TO NORTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-30
KTS ACROSS THE AREA. WE EXPECT TO SEE A PRETTY SHARP TEMPERATURE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE EASTERN CWA, HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 30S, BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S. IT'S
POSSIBLE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD EXPAND FARTHER SOUTHWEST AND
HIGHS NEAR MCCOOK AND NORTON MAY NOT COME ABOVE FREEZING.
SATURDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE FOG EARLY ON, POTENTIALLY FREEZING, HOW
QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING WILL DETERMINE IF THIS
IS FREEZING FOG, BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING FOG IS AROUND
10%. BY SUNDAY MORNING, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE CROSSING THE
CWA AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD! LOWS ARE FORECAST TO COOL AROUND
10 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN CWA WHILE THE WESTERN CWA WILL REMAIN
AROUND 20 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 0 ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S. HIGHS IN THE
EAST WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WHILE HIGHS IN THE WEST WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRYING TO GET WARMER
WITH SOUTHERLY WAA. SUNDAY COULD ALSO SEE SOME 20-25 KTS GUSTS, BUT
NOT AS MANY AS SATURDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA, BUT LOWS WILL BE WARMER, THANKS TO THE WAA EARLIER IN THE DAY.
ACROSS THE CWA, LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S, POTENTIALLY UPPER TEENS
IN THE EASTERN CWA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN
THE EASTERN CWA AS RH VALUES WILL REACH NEAR 100%. HOWEVER, WITH A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND WESTERLY WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS
LESS THAN 5%.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MILD AS THE AREA SITS
UNDER ZONAL/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE A FEW SHORTWAVES MAY MOVE
THROUGH, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH WITH MAYBE A
FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH A FEW 70S POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA. THE ONLY POTENTIAL CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS SOME BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE ZONAL,
BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY. SHOULD THE TROUGH SWING LOW ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND INCREASE WINDS A BIT.
WINDS WOULD BE CLOSER TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO LOWER INTO THE 50S BEHIND THE SYSTEM (LIKELY
ON THURSDAY). FRIDAY WOULD THEN SEE THE AREA WARM UP AHEAD OF
ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM SHOULD THE UPPER TROUGH WEDNESDAY STAY FAR
ENOUGH NORTH, THEN CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S AND WINDS AROUND 5-15 MPH SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST AS DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO BE
IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IF THE SYSTEM DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY, A FEW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING OF NOTE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE THE MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS WILL SPREAD WEST AND IMPACT KGLD AROUND 8-18Z TOMORROW
MORNING.
KMCK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL TOMORROW
MORNING WHEN THEY WILL WORSEN TO IFR OR LIFR BETWEEN 11-17Z.
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, CONDITIONS WILL START IMPROVING.
FREEZING FOG OR FREEZING DRIZZLE, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY LOW
LEVEL ICING, ARE EXPECTED AT KMCK TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
VISIBILITIES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 2-3
SM, HOWEVER THERE IS A 30% CHANCE LESS THAN 1/2 SM VISIBILITIES
OCCUR TOMORROW MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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