848
FXUS63 KGLD 131727
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83/23 AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES IN COLORADO.
- FOG AND FREEZING FOG RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, 60S, AND MAYBE 70S RETURN NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER RISKS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 18Z TODAY. A COMBINATION OF FREEZING FOG AND LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT HAS LEFT A GLAZING OF ICE ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 36 AND EAST OF KS 25, ACCORDING TO PUBLIC AND
DISPATCH REPORTS. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
16-18Z, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY MORE ICE ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND FREEZING, SO THERE'S A CHANCE
LITTLE TO NO MELTING WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN RED WILLOW AND
NORTON COUNTIES. EXPECT PATCHES OF DENSE FOG TO ALSO OCCUR IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS MORNING, BUT MOST VISIBILITIES WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 SM.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
DUE TO DENSE FOG OCCURRING AND TO MATCH UP WITH NEIGHBORS.
FREEZING FOG IS OCCURRING IN THIS AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN CLOSER TO FREEZING OVERNIGHT, LIKELY LEADING TO LESS ICE
ACCUMULATION. THIS LEADS US TO BELIEVE THE DENSE FOG IS THE
BIGGER THREAT THAN THE ICING POTENTIAL. SLICK PATCHES ARE STILL
LIKELY IN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG SHOULD START LIFTING BY
1530-1600Z.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DENSE
FOG HAS BEEN RATHER PATCHY THUS FAR, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OBSERVATIONS SINCE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. AFTER 12Z, SURFACE WINDS TURN WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83), WHICH
WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, BUT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER FURTHER EAST. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS (MCCOOK, NORTON, HILL
CITY) MAY BE STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY, WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THERE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S,
WHILE IN WESTERN AREAS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE
LOW CLOUDS GET PUSHED SOUTH THIS EVENING BY BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS, BUT AFTER 06Z THE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO RETURN TO THE AREA. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW THE FAVORED AREA FOR FOG WEST OF HIGHWAY 25
INCLUDING NORTHEAST COLORADO, PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS. THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STUBBORN SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WHILE WESTERN AREAS SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN COLORADO AND MIXED LAYER WINDS SHOW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. SINCE BOTH PARAMETERS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, ELEVATED RATHER THAN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 20S AND 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A PRECIPITATION THREAT AND THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND HIGHER PERCENTILES SHOWING
70S POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BE IN RECORD TERRITORY. AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS BOTH DAYS
WITH A FIRE WEATHER RISK. MIXED LAYER WINDS ON TUESDAY LOOK
MARGINAL THOUGH POSSIBLY COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. WINDS
APPEAR TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF COOL DOWN
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH HIGHS AROUND
50. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY BOUNCE
BACK INTO THE 60S/70S WITH ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER DAY POSSIBLE DUE
TO LOW HUMIDITY AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE MIXED LAYER WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOR KMCK, CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE, GETTING BACK TO MVFR
AROUND 21Z, AND TO VFR AROUND 0Z. ONCE THE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON CLEARS, KMCK SHOULD BE IN DECENT SHAPE FOR THE NEXT
30 HOURS. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS RETURN
TONIGHT, EXPANDING FROM THE WEST. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS WILL
BE BETWEEN 03-12Z.
KGLD IS FORECAST TO GET TO VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT RETURN TO IFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ONCE WE GET SOME MORE CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO BE GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THE SKY REMAINS OVERCAST OR BROKEN, THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER,
BUT WE WOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE'S A 15% CHANCE
OF THIS HAPPENING. THE SKY SHOULD START SLOWLY CLEARING AFTER
7Z, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG RETURN TOMORROW
MORNING.
BOTH LOCATIONS WILL SEE A HIGH THREAT FOR ICING IN AND AROUND
ANY CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ002>004.
CO...NONE.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ080-081.
UPDATE...CA
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
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