356
FXUS63 KGLD 132021
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
121 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83/23 AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES IN COLORADO.
- FOG AND FREEZING FOG RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, 60S, AND MAYBE 70S RETURN NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER RISKS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOG AND FREEZING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DENSE
FOG HAS BEEN RATHER PATCHY THUS FAR, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OBSERVATIONS SINCE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. AFTER 12Z, SURFACE WINDS TURN WEST THEN NORTHWEST IN
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA (GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83), WHICH
WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, BUT IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER FURTHER EAST. THE FAR EASTERN AREAS (MCCOOK, NORTON, HILL
CITY) MAY BE STUCK IN THE CLOUDS ALL DAY, WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THERE WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S,
WHILE IN WESTERN AREAS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE
LOW CLOUDS GET PUSHED SOUTH THIS EVENING BY BRISK NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS, BUT AFTER 06Z THE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO RETURN TO THE AREA. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW THE FAVORED AREA FOR FOG WEST OF HIGHWAY 25
INCLUDING NORTHEAST COLORADO, PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS. THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETS UP AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
STUBBORN SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WHILE WESTERN AREAS SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S
AND 50S. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY
WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS
WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS IN COLORADO AND MIXED LAYER WINDS SHOW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. SINCE BOTH PARAMETERS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST, ELEVATED RATHER THAN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 20S AND 30S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW THROUGH
THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA,
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE AREA. WE
STILL MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME 70S IF IT THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY AND
NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE COLORADO BORDER
AS THE SYSTEM ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO CREEP CLOSER TO 25 MPH WHILE THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES DROPS RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS.
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS, BUT
DIP LOWER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS FORECAST TO BRING A
MORE POTENT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
WINDS. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50 MPH FOR
COUNTIES AROUND THE COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW, THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON ENSEMBLES AS THERE ARE SCENARIOS THAT HELP AND HURT HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. THE 500MB SPREADS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH
COULD BE FARTHER NORTH (LOWERING IMPACTS), AND/OR THAT IT COULD MOVE
THROUGH FASTER AND EARLIER IN THE DAY (INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
WINDS). OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AN OVERALL ZONAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
WHICH WOULD FAVOR SEASONABLE/MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, SOME UPPER TROUGHS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE FLOW AND BRING MORE SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. SO WHILE THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR MILD CONDITIONS TO RETURN, THIS MAY CHANGE ONCE
IT BECOMES APPARENT ON WHICH SMALLER TROUGHS CAN INFLUENCE THE
AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOR KMCK, CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE, GETTING BACK TO MVFR
AROUND 21Z, AND TO VFR AROUND 0Z. ONCE THE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON CLEARS, KMCK SHOULD BE IN DECENT SHAPE FOR THE NEXT
30 HOURS. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS RETURN
TONIGHT, EXPANDING FROM THE WEST. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS WILL
BE BETWEEN 03-12Z.
KGLD IS FORECAST TO GET TO VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT RETURN TO IFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ONCE WE GET SOME MORE CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO BE GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THE SKY REMAINS OVERCAST OR BROKEN, THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER,
BUT WE WOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE'S A 15% CHANCE
OF THIS HAPPENING. THE SKY SHOULD START SLOWLY CLEARING AFTER
7Z, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG RETURN TOMORROW
MORNING.
BOTH LOCATIONS WILL SEE A HIGH THREAT FOR ICING IN AND AROUND
ANY CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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