144
FXUS63 KGLD 132058
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
158 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS ACTIVE UNTIL TONIGHT.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83/23 AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES IN COLORADO.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, 60S, AND MAYBE 70S RETURN NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER RISKS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
FREEZING FOG IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WITHIN THIS FOG, EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO REDUCE TO LESS THAN A MILE, DOWN TO 1/4 MILE. THIS
FREEZING FOG WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. TRAVEL WILL BE
HAZARDOUS TODAY, WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA UNTIL 6Z.
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS EVENT AT ALL, SO OUR BEST PREDICTIONS
ARE AS FOLLOWS. AS FAR AS ICE ACCUMULATIONS GO, LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF U.S. 36 AND ALONG AND EAST OF KS 25 WILL RECEIVE THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT. THANKFULLY MOST OF THIS ICE FORMED
THIS MORNING AND ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS ARE LIKELY TO
ACCRETE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF U.S.
36 IN KANSAS WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE NEW ICE ACCUMULATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY GET BETWEEN 0.01 TO 0.1
INCH OF ICING BY THE END OF THE EVENT. MOST PLACES WILL GET THE
LOWER END AMOUNTS, BUT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH, PUSHING
THIS FREEZING FOG TO THE SOUTHWEST, LIGHT FORCING IS EXPECTED. THE
LIGHT FORCING, WHICH SHOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED, BUT WILL LEAD TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF SNOWFALL. IN EASTERN
COLORADO, THE FREEZING FOG COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT, BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 3-9Z MAY DRY OUT THE SURFACE AND END THE FOG
IN THIS TIME FRAME. WE ARE EXPECTING A LIGHT GLAZING OF ICE
ACCRETION IN THIS AREA, WHICH WILL MAKE SURFACES SLICK.
THE FOG AND ICING THREAT WILL BE ENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
AS OF 2030Z, KMCK AND KNRN ARE SHOWING IMPROVEMENT, BUT PATCHY FOG
IS REPORTED UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST. BY 0Z, LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF
TRENTON, NE TO HILL CITY, KS SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE BULK OF THE
FREEZING FOG. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE FOG WILL SLOWLY CREEP TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE EAST SIDE CLEARS OUT. MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THE OVERNIGHT FOG IS FOUND AFTER THE NEXT PARAGRAPH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE LIKELY ALREADY HIT THEIR APEX, WHICH IS MUCH
COOLER THAN WAS EXPECTED. THIS FREEZING FOG AND STRATUS DECK ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ALL DAY, WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMB ANY MORE THAN THEY ALREADY HAVE.
OVERNIGHT, AN INVERTED RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WILL BRING IN COLD, DRIER AIR TO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AND WILL KEEP
THE COLD MOIST AIR OVER THE WESTERN CWA. PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ALL NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF KS 25. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SLICK PATCHES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA.
STRATUS WILL ALSO PERSIST ALONG AND WEST OF KS 25, PREVENTING THE
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE DAMP PARTS OF THE
CWA WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. IN THE DRIER HALF OF
THE CWA, LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE LOW TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
THERE IS A 20% CHANCE NORTON AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES DROP TO AROUND
7 DEGREES IF DRIER DEW POINTS MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SUNDAY, THE LINGERING FOG SHOULD LIFT IN THE MORNING AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL WARM UP THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO THE 40S TO LOW
50S. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL ALSO HAVE SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT
DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CAA OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE 30S. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME 20-25 KTS GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SUNDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWA, BUT LOWS WILL BE WARMER, THANKS TO THE WAA EARLIER IN THE DAY.
ACROSS THE CWA, LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S, POTENTIALLY UPPER TEENS
IN THE EASTERN CWA. WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IN
THE EASTERN CWA AS RH VALUES WILL REACH NEAR 100%. HOWEVER, WITH A
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND WESTERLY WINDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IS
LESS THAN 5%.
MONDAY, WE WILL BE WARMING QUICKLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL LOWER RH
VALUES INTO THE MID TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND 20-30% ELSEWHERE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT OVERLY CONCERNING AS NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 21 KTS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW THROUGH
THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA,
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE AREA. WE
STILL MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME 70S IF IT THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY AND
NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE COLORADO BORDER
AS THE SYSTEM ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO CREEP CLOSER TO 25 MPH WHILE THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES DROPS RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS.
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS, BUT
DIP LOWER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS FORECAST TO BRING A
MORE POTENT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
WINDS. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50 MPH FOR
COUNTIES AROUND THE COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW, THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON ENSEMBLES AS THERE ARE SCENARIOS THAT HELP AND HURT HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. THE 500MB SPREADS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH
COULD BE FARTHER NORTH (LOWERING IMPACTS), AND/OR THAT IT COULD MOVE
THROUGH FASTER AND EARLIER IN THE DAY (INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
WINDS). OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AN OVERALL ZONAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
WHICH WOULD FAVOR SEASONABLE/MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, SOME UPPER TROUGHS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE FLOW AND BRING MORE SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. SO WHILE THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR MILD CONDITIONS TO RETURN, THIS MAY CHANGE ONCE
IT BECOMES APPARENT ON WHICH SMALLER TROUGHS CAN INFLUENCE THE
AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
FOR KMCK, CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE, GETTING BACK TO MVFR
AROUND 21Z, AND TO VFR AROUND 0Z. ONCE THE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON CLEARS, KMCK SHOULD BE IN DECENT SHAPE FOR THE NEXT
30 HOURS. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS RETURN
TONIGHT, EXPANDING FROM THE WEST. MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS WILL
BE BETWEEN 03-12Z.
KGLD IS FORECAST TO GET TO VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT RETURN TO IFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ONCE WE GET SOME MORE CLEAR SKIES, EXPECT WINDS FROM
THE NORTHEAST TO BE GUSTING AROUND 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THE SKY REMAINS OVERCAST OR BROKEN, THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER,
BUT WE WOULD REMAIN IFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE'S A 15% CHANCE
OF THIS HAPPENING. THE SKY SHOULD START SLOWLY CLEARING AFTER
7Z, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG RETURN TOMORROW
MORNING.
BOTH LOCATIONS WILL SEE A HIGH THREAT FOR ICING IN AND AROUND
ANY CLOUDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
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