404
FXUS63 KGLD 140727
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1227 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING WEST OF HIGHWAY 25
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO.
- LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83/23 AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN COLORADO.
- MILDER TEMPERATURES AND SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO START
THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS, WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 AND NORTHEAST COLORADO, ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. HOWEVER, AS WINDS TURN TO SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL
BE WORKING AGAINST THE FOG AND DENSE FOG, IF ANY AT ALL, SHOULD
BE PATCHY. THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS THOSE SOUTHWEST
WINDS SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES TRICKY ONCE AGAIN, BUT HAVE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD
THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF
CLOUDS HAVE LESS INFLUENCE. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LIGHT WEST WINDS. HRRR SUGGESTS
PATCHY FOG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH IN EASTERN AREAS TOWARDS 12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO THE UNFAVORABLE WESTERLY WINDS. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WOULD
BE PATCHY IN NATURE.
MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD TEMPERATURES
AS THE COLD AIR MASS MOVES OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON IN COLORADO AND THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER
AREA. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN THOSE AREAS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z, BUT THEN MODELS SHOW
WINDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS INTO
THE TEENS AS THE WINDS ARE DECREASING, CASTING SOME DOUBT ON
WHETHER THE TWO PARAMETERS CAN OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME FOR FIRE
WEATHER. FOR NOW, WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THOSE WINDS CAN PERSIST A
LITTLE LONGER BEFORE ADDRESSING WITH ANY PRODUCTS. MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY,
BUT LACKS MOISTURE AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT MORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FIRE WEATHER MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN, MAINLY IN WESTERN
AREAS, WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AXIS PASSES. MODELS SHOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30-40 MPH
POSSIBLE IF FULL MIXING TO 1 KM CAN BE REALIZED AS SUGGESTED BY
MIXING HEIGHT FORECASTS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW THROUGH
THE AREA. WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA,
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S REMAIN FORECAST FOR THE AREA. WE
STILL MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME 70S IF IT THE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY AND
NOT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE COLORADO BORDER
AS THE SYSTEM ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO CREEP CLOSER TO 25 MPH WHILE THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES DROPS RELATIVE HUMIDITY INTO THE TEENS.
WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS, BUT
DIP LOWER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS FORECAST TO BRING A
MORE POTENT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO
KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR STRONG
WINDS. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THAT WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50 MPH FOR
COUNTIES AROUND THE COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW, THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON ENSEMBLES AS THERE ARE SCENARIOS THAT HELP AND HURT HOW
STRONG THE WINDS WILL GET. THE 500MB SPREADS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH
COULD BE FARTHER NORTH (LOWERING IMPACTS), AND/OR THAT IT COULD MOVE
THROUGH FASTER AND EARLIER IN THE DAY (INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
WINDS). OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AN OVERALL ZONAL PATTERN IS FORECAST
WHICH WOULD FAVOR SEASONABLE/MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, SOME UPPER TROUGHS MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE FLOW AND BRING MORE SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. SO WHILE THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR MILD CONDITIONS TO RETURN, THIS MAY CHANGE ONCE
IT BECOMES APPARENT ON WHICH SMALLER TROUGHS CAN INFLUENCE THE
AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
AT KGLD...IFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS. PATCHY FOG AROUND 12Z MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
LESS THAN 1 MILE FOR A FEW HOURS. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AROUND 18Z WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SCOURING OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. VFR THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AT KMCK...MVFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS, MAINLY THIS MORNING. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
AROUND 21Z WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SCOURING OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS. VFR THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
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