137
FXUS63 KGLD 141721
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83/23 AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN COLORADO.
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE NNW WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. THE FOG WILL BE CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS, WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 AND NORTHEAST COLORADO, ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS. HOWEVER, AS WINDS TURN TO SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL
BE WORKING AGAINST THE FOG AND DENSE FOG, IF ANY AT ALL, SHOULD
BE PATCHY. THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE OUT AS THOSE SOUTHWEST
WINDS SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL STILL BE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES TRICKY ONCE AGAIN, BUT HAVE GENERALLY LEANED TOWARD
THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN AREAS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT WARMER IF
CLOUDS HAVE LESS INFLUENCE. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LIGHT WEST WINDS. HRRR SUGGESTS
PATCHY FOG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH IN EASTERN AREAS TOWARDS 12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE
TO THE UNFAVORABLE WESTERLY WINDS. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WOULD
BE PATCHY IN NATURE.
MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND MILD
TEMPERATURES AS THE COLD AIR MASS MOVES OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SOME FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN COLORADO AND THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE IN THE MORNING
IN THOSE AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z,
BUT THEN MODELS SHOW WINDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DROPS INTO THE TEENS AS THE WINDS ARE DECREASING,
CASTING SOME DOUBT ON WHETHER THE TWO PARAMETERS CAN OCCUR AT
THE SAME TIME FOR FIRE WEATHER. FOR NOW, WILL WAIT AND SEE IF
THOSE WINDS CAN PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE ADDRESSING WITH
ANY PRODUCTS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY,
BUT LACKS MOISTURE AND NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WARM A BIT MORE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FIRE WEATHER MAY ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN, MAINLY IN WESTERN
AREAS, WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS DROPPING INTO
THE TEENS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AXIS PASSES. MODELS SHOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30-40 MPH
POSSIBLE IF FULL MIXING TO 1 KM CAN BE REALIZED AS SUGGESTED BY
MIXING HEIGHT FORECASTS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 30.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 150 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
OVERVIEW: ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACCOMPANYING A 150-175 KNOT
NW UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING ASHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WED
MORNING WILL EVOLVE INTO A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT
RAPIDLY PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS
(WED), UPPER MIDWEST (WED NIGHT) AND GREAT LAKES (THU). LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A PROGRESSIVE AND LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WED: EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (60'S) AND POTENTIALLY
BREEZY S TO WSW WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THICK UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (FOR PORTIONS OF THE DAY, AT
LEAST) AND OTHERWISE SHALLOW MIXING MAY PREVENT STRONGER SW-WSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.. LIMITING THE
MAGNITUDE AND/OR EXTENT OF ADVERSE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WED NIGHT-THU: 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST THAT STRONG NW-NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WED NIGHT INTO THU (~06-18Z THU) AS A
DEEP MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE PROGRESSES EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. FROM A PATTERN RECOGNITION
STANDPOINT, STRONG WINDS ARE A GOOD BET. BOTH THE MAGNITUDE AND
AREAL EXTENT OF STRONG WINDS WILL, HOWEVER, HIGHLY DEPEND UPON
THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE..
A SYSTEM THAT WON'T EVEN BEGIN TO DEVELOP UNTIL WED.
FRI-SUN: PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS. BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE W/REGARD TO TEMPERATURES. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AN ACTIVE, PROGRESSIVE (ALBEIT LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL) UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN SUCH A PATTERN -- I.E.
A PATTERN THAT TENDS TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EPISODIC LEE
CYCLONES (THE MODEST AND PROGRESSIVE VARIETY) -- CONSIDERABLE
DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURE AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION
ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE RETURNING TO KMCK AND KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON. KGLD IS SEEING THE CEILING SLOWLY BREAK AND SHOULD
DISSOLVE ENTIRELY BY 19Z. KMCK WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AND MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 2030Z. ONCE BOTH SITES RETURN
TO VFR, THEY WILL STAY THERE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TODAY IN THE 20-30 KTS
RANGE, BUT WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNRISE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...CA
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