301
FXUS63 KGLD 141920
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH MONDAY BEING THE DAY OF LOWEST CONCERN.
- WARM, DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT WEEK.
- WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY BEFORE AND AFTER A COLD FRONT; GUSTS
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT COULD GUST AROUND 40-60 MPH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
TODAY, A HIGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS IS LEADING
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS FLOW IS WORKING TO
CLEAR OUT THE REMAINING STRATUS, WHICH SHOULD DISSOLVE BY SUNSET.
HOWEVER, WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS LEADING
TO WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KTS RANGE, AND A FEW 30-35 KTS GUSTS
COULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, TOO. HIGHS TODAY ARE AT THE WHIM OF THE
CLOUDS. THE WESTERN CWA HAS CLEARED BEFORE THE REST OF THE AREA, SO
THEY WILL BE THE WARMEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST SHOULD CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN CWA WILL SEE THE STRATUS
LAST THE LONGEST, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S TODAY.
A FEW PLACES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING TODAY, MAINLY NEAR
NORTON COUNTY.
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE WARMER,
THANKS TO THE WAA EARLIER IN THE DAY, MOSTLY REMAINING IN THE 20S,
POTENTIALLY UPPER TEENS IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING FOG IN THE MORNING IS BASICALLY 0 AT THIS POINT WITH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR.
TOMORROW, AS THE TROUGH DRIVING THE EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST, WINDS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK, GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 15
KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING QUICKLY, INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL LOWER RH
VALUES INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND 20-30%
ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY NIGHT, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AND REALLY NOTHING OF NOTE
LOOKS TO OCCUR. LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WITH THE
EASTERN CWA STILL BEING THE COOLEST.
GOING INTO TUESDAY, THERE IS A SHORTWAVE 500MB TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. 850 MB FLOW FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
LOOKS TO RANGE AROUND 20-30 KTS, WHICH GIVEN THE MID 60
TEMPERATURES, COULD EASILY MIX TO THE SURFACE.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT OVERLY CONCERNING MONDAY WITH THE
WEAK WINDS, BUT IT WILL WORK TO DRY OUT THE AREA. TUESDAY IS THE DAY
OF GREATER CONCERN. NBM SHOWS MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE IN THE MID
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THERE IS A 40% CHANCE DEW
POINTS ARE LOWER THAN THE NBM IS EXPECTING, WHICH WOULD LEAD RH
VALUES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. WINDS WILL LIKELY (70%)
REMAIN UNDER 23 KTS, BUT THAT LEAVES A 30% CHANCE OF STRONGER GUSTS,
UP TO 30 KTS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN MEETING RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS CURRENTLY AROUND
25-30% FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE OVER KANSAS AND
START SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. EVEN WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW US TO COOL TO AROUND 30. THERE IS A HINT WE COULD
GET SOME MOIST AIR ADVECTION INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT, WHICH WOULD
HELP WEDNESDAY'S RHS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE SITTING UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A SLIGHT
NORTHWESTERN FAVORING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PERSISTENT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. WE WILL SEE A PRETTY POWERFUL LOW MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE 850 MB LOW WILL
COME OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY, AND BY THE AFTERNOON
START UP A LLJ OVER THE CWA. THIS LLJ WILL CREATE A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF 30-40+ KTS AT 850 MB. WE SHOULD MIX MODERATELY WELL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, MEANING THESE 30-40+ KTS GUSTS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE. THE NBM SHOWS RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 20S, BANKING
ON THE EARLY MORNING MOIST AIR ADVECTION. IF THE MOIST ADVECTION
DOES NOT OCCUR OR THE TEMPERATURES WARM UP PAST THE MID 60S, RH
VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS IS LEADING TO SOME
MODERATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. IF WE GET A STRONGER SIGNAL RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
LOW TEENS, WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY NEED A RED FLAG WARNING.
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BULK OF
THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THE COLD FRONT, WE'RE EXPECTING TO SEE PRESSURE RISES OF 1-2 MB PER
HOUR OVER 6-12 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, 850 MB FLOW IS SCREAMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 40-55 KTS. THERE IS A ~30% CHANCE THESE WINDS
MIX DOWN, LEADING TO SURFACE GUSTS OF A SIMILAR SPEED.
THERE IS A ~10% CHANCE THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS, WE COULD SEE SOME BLOWING
DUST. EVEN THOUGH WE'RE WARMING UP NICELY WEDNESDAY, LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, SITTING IN THE 5-7 C/KM RANGE. THIS IS LIKELY
TOO LOW OF A LAPSE RATE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD BLOWING DUST. AT THIS
POINT, THE BLOWING DUST CONCERN IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN THE BACK OF
THE MIND AS THE WINDS LOOK TO BE THE BIGGER IMPACT.
THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES,
MOSTLY JUST IMPACTING THURSDAY'S HIGHS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE LONG-TERM, TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S. ONCE THE LOW
AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY, ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT, WE ARE SEEING SIGNS OF A BROAD, FAIRLY
WEAK, TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. IF THIS TROUGH
DOES IMPACT US, EXPECT SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT SUNDAY, BUT
THERE'S A 60% CHANCE THE TROUGH DOESN'T FORM.
OVERALL, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER, AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY
HAVE SOME CLOUDS, KEEPING US IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION REMAINS
UNLIKELY THROUGH THE LONG-TERM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE RETURNING TO KMCK AND KGLD THIS
AFTERNOON. KGLD IS SEEING THE CEILING SLOWLY BREAK AND SHOULD
DISSOLVE ENTIRELY BY 19Z. KMCK WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER AND MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AROUND 2030Z. ONCE BOTH SITES RETURN
TO VFR, THEY WILL STAY THERE FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TODAY IN THE 20-30 KTS
RANGE, BUT WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNRISE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA
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