311
FXUS63 KGLD 151111
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
411 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME BLOWING DUST ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND A RIDGE
WHICH HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AND IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (MAINLY 60S) AND A COOL
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY (UPPER 40S) BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALMOST EVERY DAY. ON MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS) IN THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND TAPS
INTO SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN ABOUT 15-18Z. THOSE WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS WHEN HUMIDITY WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS IN THE SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SINCE THE TWO PARAMETERS DO NOT OCCUR AT
THE SAME TIME. ON TUESDAY, THE WINDS COULD BE STRONGER DUE TO
HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS (2.5-3 KFT) WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY TAP
INTO WINDS OF 40 KTS OR GREATER. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO/ADJACENT KANSAS COUNTIES WHICH IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF MEETING CRITERIA WILL RESIDE. MIXING
HEIGHTS DROP A BIT ON WEDNESDAY (1.5-2 KFT), BUT THE WINDS ALOFT
ARE STRONGER AND MAY STILL MANAGE TO TAP INTO GUSTS OVER 40
KTS. FORECAST AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS ARE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S, BUT MODELS TYPICALLY DON'T MIX ENOUGH AND
HUMIDITY MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. AS A RESULT, THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY
THE WINDS WILL DEFINITELY BE THERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND
HUMIDITY IS NOT FAR BEHIND IN THE LOWER 20S, SO MAY HAVE YET
ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
REGARDING THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, MODELS
STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. INITIALLY THE WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 3-HR PRESSURE RISES OF UP TO 7 MB
CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE MODELS WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO WIND
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. VERY DEEP MIXING IS ALSO FORECAST
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH COULD ALSO BRING DOWN STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH
ALOFT. BLOWING DUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL WITH EITHER THE
INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE OR WITH THE FAVORABLE MIXING HEIGHTS ON
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY THEN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH TOWARDS BAJA
CALIFORNIA. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY BACK TO AROUND 70 AND HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE 50S
AND 60S. MAY HAVE MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE SLIGHT COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
APPEARS AT THIS POINT TO IMPROVE HUMIDITY TO LEVELS ABOVE FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS. SUNDAY MAY BE BREEZY WITH DEEP MIXING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AS
THE INVERSION BREAKS BETWEEN ABOUT 15-18Z THIS MORNING, THEN
QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...024
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