409
FXUS63 KGLD 152055
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
155 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME BLOWING DUST ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW HAS RETURNED TO THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND A RIDGE
WHICH HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AND IS NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY (MAINLY 60S) AND A COOL
DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY (UPPER 40S) BEHIND
A COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ALMOST EVERY DAY. ON MONDAY THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS) IN THE
KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER AREA AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND TAPS
INTO SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN ABOUT 15-18Z. THOSE WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS WHEN HUMIDITY WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS IN THE SAME AREA. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SINCE THE TWO PARAMETERS DO NOT OCCUR AT
THE SAME TIME. ON TUESDAY, THE WINDS COULD BE STRONGER DUE TO
HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS (2.5-3 KFT) WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY TAP
INTO WINDS OF 40 KTS OR GREATER. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
MINIMUMS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST COLORADO/ADJACENT KANSAS COUNTIES WHICH IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF MEETING CRITERIA WILL RESIDE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
WEDNESDAY, A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE AREA TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 60S. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THE FRONT
MOVING IN LATER MAY BE TOO LATE IN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND
DROPPING DEWPOINTS TO WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD REACH 15%. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS, MAYBE JUST
BEFORE SUNSET IF SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CORRECT. WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WHILE SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR BLOWING DUST, BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY NOT HAVE STRONG
ENOUGH WINDS WHILE THE EVENING MAY NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH SURFACE
LAPSE RATES TO LIFT THE DUST. ALSO, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT, BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE COOLER AND STILL A BIT WINDY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S WITH
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH.
FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS IT NEAR THE UNITED STATES/CANADA
BORDER, BUT IT COULD DIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TIME THOUGH, THE TROUGH
MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WINDS STAY AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH.
THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO HAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE AREA TO HAVE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS. HIGHS AROUND THE 50S/60S
AND WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 22 KTS
OVER KGLD THROUGH 20Z THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHERLY. AROUND SUNSET,
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY OVER BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH ~15-17Z
WHEN LLWS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 200 FT WITH SPEEDS
OF 40-45 KTS. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-10 KTS
FOR BOTH TERMINALS DURING THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KMK
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