154
FXUS63 KGLD 152316
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME BLOWING DUST ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
IT'S BEEN A PLEASANT DAY WEATHER WISE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA SO
FAR. THE UPPER CUT OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AND OVER THE PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
WHILE A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. WITH THIS
PATTERN, DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE AREA WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
AROUND 30% TOMORROW. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD STAY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. LIGHT WINDS REDUCED THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR US TO SEE SOME 25-
30 MPH GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN KIT CARSON AND YUMA
COUNTIES. RIGHT NOW, CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 30% THAT WE COULD SEE AN
HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN YUMA AND
KIT CARSON COUNTIES PRIMARILY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IF WE ARE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN AND DRY OUT A LITTLE MORE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
WEDNESDAY, A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE AREA TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 60S. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THE FRONT
MOVING IN LATER MAY BE TOO LATE IN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND
DROPPING DEWPOINTS TO WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD REACH 15%. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS, MAYBE JUST
BEFORE SUNSET IF SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CORRECT. WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WHILE SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR BLOWING DUST, BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY NOT HAVE STRONG
ENOUGH WINDS WHILE THE EVENING MAY NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH SURFACE
LAPSE RATES TO LIFT THE DUST. ALSO, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT, BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE COOLER AND STILL A BIT WINDY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S WITH
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH.
FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS IT NEAR THE UNITED STATES/CANADA
BORDER, BUT IT COULD DIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TIME THOUGH, THE TROUGH
MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WINDS STAY AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH.
THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO HAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE AREA TO HAVE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS. HIGHS AROUND THE 50S/60S
AND WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 414 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH SITES,
THOUGH KMCK HAS A 10% CHANCE OF COOLING ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE, HIGH CLOUDS OR CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO BE
MORE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND THEN SHIFT
BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW. A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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