596
FXUS63 KGLD 160758
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1258 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME BLOWING DUST ALSO
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
TREACHEROUS FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, THEN STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS, AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FOR TODAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION BREAKING
AROUND 17Z AND DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 2.5 KFT BETWEEN 19-21Z.
DURING THAT TIME, WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND LOW DEW POINTS
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WELL INTO THE
TEENS MAY OCCUR IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S MODEL PERFORMANCE,
TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S. PUTTING ALL OF
THIS TOGETHER, MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE
AROUND 50% THAT ALL OF THE PARAMETERS CAN COME TOGETHER, WHICH
IS THE ONLY REASON FOR NOT ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING AT THE
PRESENT TIME. THE INVERSION QUICKLY SETS IN AROUND 21-22Z,
ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS WINDS DIMINISH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY. WHILE MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL BE LOWER, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE HIGHER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN COLORADO. GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO. MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WARMER AND DEW POINTS
LOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST DUE TO THE IDEAL DOWNSLOPING WINDS,
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE IN WESTERN AREAS, NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND A COLUMN OR TWO INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S THOUGH A FEW 70S
POSSIBLE, WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND 30S.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS
SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-60 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING AND FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTERWARDS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT STILL
STAY GUSTY. ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
FOLLOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY STRONGER, AS DEEP MIXING
UP TO 6 KFT TAPS INTO WINDS POTENTIALLY IN THE 60-80 MPH RANGE,
THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 40-60
MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS
SUPPORT BLOWING DUST AND DUST STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF WINDS OF
THAT MAGNITUDE MATERIALIZE. SOILS WILL BE PRIMED WITH THE RECENT
WARMTH AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT OCCURRED IN
EARLY DECEMBER. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES, MOST
NOTABLY THE ECMWF. WHILE IT DOES SHOW STRONG WINDS WITH THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT KEEPS THE STRONGER WINDS ON THURSDAY
FURTHER EAST, MORE IN CENTRAL KANSAS, THOUGH EVEN IN THE ECMWF
SCENARIO STRONG WINDS WOULD OCCUR IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. AND SHOULD ALSO NOT FORGET ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH
THOSE KIND OF WINDS, THOUGH WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S), HUMIDITY MINIMUMS MAY STAY JUST ABOVE THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 15%. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS TO AROUND 1.5 KFT,
WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
ML WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. NONETHELESS, MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERDO BOTH WIND GUSTS AND DEW POINTS IN THIS PATTERN AND MAY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
WEDNESDAY, A STRONG TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS, THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE AREA TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 60S. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. WE ARE WATCHING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THE FRONT
MOVING IN LATER MAY BE TOO LATE IN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND
DROPPING DEWPOINTS TO WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD REACH 15%. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS, MAYBE JUST
BEFORE SUNSET IF SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CORRECT. WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH WHILE SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR BLOWING DUST, BUT THE AFTERNOON MAY NOT HAVE STRONG
ENOUGH WINDS WHILE THE EVENING MAY NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH SURFACE
LAPSE RATES TO LIFT THE DUST. ALSO, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT, BUT NOTHING IMPACTFUL IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BE COOLER AND STILL A BIT WINDY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S WITH
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH.
FRIDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS IT NEAR THE UNITED STATES/CANADA
BORDER, BUT IT COULD DIP A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE, FRIDAY IS
FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TIME THOUGH, THE TROUGH
MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT WINDS STAY AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH.
THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO HAVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE AREA TO HAVE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS. HIGHS AROUND THE 50S/60S
AND WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES AROUND 17Z TUESDAY AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 22Z WITH SURFACE COOLING. GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT
RANGE MAY OCCUR AT EITHER TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
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