334
FXUS63 KGLD 161442
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
742 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME BLOWING DUST ALSO
POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 737 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
BASED ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE DATA FOR TODAY, CONCUR WITH THE
PRIOR SHIFT REGARDING CONFIDENCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERING DEW POINTS TO THE
25TH PERCENTILE AND RAISING WINDS TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE ONLY
RESULTS IN AN AREA SMALLER THAN A COUNTY MEETING THE TIME
REQUIREMENTS FOR A WARNING TODAY. TWO OTHER COMPLICATING FACTORS
ARE THE INCOMING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST, AND THE SLIGHT INCREASE
IN DEW POINTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE TWO FACTORS WERE
NOT HAPPENING, WOULD HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WARNING.
CONFIDENCE FOR WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET CONTINUES TO BE 50%.
HOWEVER THE AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE WINDY WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY, A BAD DAY TO BURN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1258 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
TREACHEROUS FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, THEN STRONG TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS, AS WELL AS BLOWING DUST, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FOR TODAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION BREAKING
AROUND 17Z AND DEEP MIXING TO AROUND 2.5 KFT BETWEEN 19-21Z.
DURING THAT TIME, WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AND LOW DEW POINTS
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS WELL INTO THE
TEENS MAY OCCUR IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHWEST KANSAS. BASED ON YESTERDAY'S MODEL PERFORMANCE,
TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S. PUTTING ALL OF
THIS TOGETHER, MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. CONFIDENCE LEVELS ARE
AROUND 50% THAT ALL OF THE PARAMETERS CAN COME TOGETHER, WHICH
IS THE ONLY REASON FOR NOT ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING AT THE
PRESENT TIME. THE INVERSION QUICKLY SETS IN AROUND 21-22Z,
ENDING ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS WINDS DIMINISH. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A
SIMILAR SCENARIO SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY. WHILE MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL BE LOWER, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE HIGHER AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN COLORADO. GRADIENT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN
COLORADO. MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN MUCH OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE WARMER AND DEW POINTS
LOWER THAN MODELS SUGGEST DUE TO THE IDEAL DOWNSLOPING WINDS,
RESULTING IN POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE IN WESTERN AREAS, NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND A COLUMN OR TWO INTO KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S THOUGH A FEW 70S
POSSIBLE, WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND 30S.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
MODELS SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-60 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE
INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EVENING AND FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTERWARDS. WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT BUT STILL STAY
GUSTY. ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY STRONGER, AS DEEP MIXING UP TO
6 KFT TAPS INTO WINDS POTENTIALLY IN THE 60-80 MPH RANGE, THEN
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON TO 40-60 MPH
BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHTS SUPPORT
BLOWING DUST AND DUST STORMS, ESPECIALLY IF WINDS OF THAT
MAGNITUDE MATERIALIZE. SOILS WILL BE PRIMED WITH THE RECENT
WARMTH AND ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS THAT OCCURRED IN
EARLY DECEMBER. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES, MOST
NOTABLY THE ECMWF. WHILE IT DOES SHOW STRONG WINDS WITH THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT KEEPS THE STRONGER WINDS ON THURSDAY
FURTHER EAST, MORE IN CENTRAL KANSAS, THOUGH EVEN IN THE ECMWF
SCENARIO STRONG WINDS WOULD OCCUR IN EASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. AND SHOULD ALSO NOT FORGET ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH
THOSE KIND OF WINDS, THOUGH WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S), HUMIDITY MINIMUMS MAY STAY JUST ABOVE THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 15%. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.
ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. MIXING HEIGHTS
ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS TO AROUND 1.5 KFT,
WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE WIND POTENTIAL. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
ML WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. NONETHELESS, MODELS TYPICALLY
UNDERDO BOTH WIND GUSTS AND DEW POINTS IN THIS PATTERN AND MAY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 255 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A PROGRESSIVE, ENERGETIC AND
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.. WHEN A STRONG (~150 KNOT) WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
(40-50N LATITUDE). IN SUCH A PATTERN, I.E. A PATTERN THAT TENDS
TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EPISODIC LEE CYCLONES (THE MODEST
AND PROGRESSIVE VARIETY), CONSIDERABLE DAY-TO-DAY FLUCTUATIONS
IN TEMPERATURE AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION ARE POSSIBLE. ON THE
WHOLE, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.. AND THAT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON FRI WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND (SAT-SUN) THEN A WARMING TREND
(MON-TUE). WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA SITUATED ON THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE /ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE/ OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET..
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT BOTH
SITES AROUND 17Z AS THE INVERSION BREAKS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
ABOUT 22Z WITH SURFACE COOLING. GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE MAY
OCCUR AT EITHER TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024
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