309
FXUS63 KGLD 172104
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
204 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT BRINGS SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.
- THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
GUSTS COULD REACH 80 MPH.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY
AS WELL. FIRES COULD EXHIBIT EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO CONTROL.
- BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BE ALERT FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS AND BROWNOUTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 158 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, CAPPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA SO FAR. THERE ARE A FEW
60S AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE AREAS TO
REACH THE 60S. THE CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE
PREVENTED US FROM REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY ABOVE 25%. WINDS STILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND THE SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO NEAR THE AREA.
THIS EVENING, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRIEFLY LET UP AROUND SUNSET
AS THE INVERSION BEGINS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THE REPRIEVE WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
WITH THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ADVANCING EAST. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, IT IS FORECAST TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE
THE SURFACE AND ALLOW FOR BRIEF GUSTS AROUND 50-60 MPH ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS HAS LED TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING BEING PUSHED UP TO THIS
EVENING. ON THE BACK SIDE, PRESSURE RISES OF ~6MB PER 3 HOURS SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO SUSTAIN AROUND 30 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 45-50 MPH. THE
CURRENT TIMING IS FOR THE FRONT TO ENTER THE TRI-STATE BORDER AREA
AROUND 7-8PM MT
/ 8-9PM
CT AND EXIT THE AREA CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD LOWER SLIGHTLY
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND THE FRONT GETS FARTHER AWAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 30S WITH A FEW 20S OUT WEST AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES IN.
FOR THURSDAY, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A MULTIPLE HAZARD DAY. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
AND DIG SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS BETWEEN 850MB AND
500 MB TIGHT, AND ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS
THE SUN COMES UP AND BEGINS TO MIX NEAR THE SURFACE, THE STRONG
WINDS THAT WERE HELD UP BY THE INVERSION SHOULD BEGIN MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS GUSTS AROUND 50-65 MPH, WHILE
SOME OF THE STRONGER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS COULD REACH 80 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHICH MEANS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MAY BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO AVOID THE WORST OF THE GUSTS. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SUSTAIN AROUND 30 MPH AND ARE UNLIKELY TO GET MUCH
STRONGER UNLESS THE FRONT STAY CLOSER TO THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE SUN HEATS THE SURFACE, LAPSE RATES SHOULD
INCREASE ENOUGH TO BEGIN LOFTING DUST, ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONG
WIND SPEEDS. WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN THOUGH, THE LAPSE RATES
AROUND 1-2KM ARE FORECAST TO BE LOW. AS MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5000FT
SUGGEST, THERE MAY BE A CAP IN PLACE TO HOLD THE DUST AND
CONCENTRATION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PLUMES OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT AGAIN FAVORING NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. BE ALERT
FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS AND BROWNOUT CONDITIONS. FINALLY, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA. WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS
WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY AND THE FORECAST OF FAIRLY STRONG WINDS, FIRES
MAY BECOME VERY HARD IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO CONTROL. WITH THIS, FELT A
RED FLAG WARNING IS NEEDED. EITHER WAY, IT WILL NOT BE A GOOD DAY TO
BURN.
THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE THAT THE AREA COULD SEE LIGHTER WINDS AND
LESSER IMPACTS. A COUPLE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SUGGESTING
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PUSH FAST ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT THE
TIGHTER HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. WINDS WOULD STILL BE ELEVATED, BUT MORE LIKELY TO BE 20MPH
GUST 40 TO 45 MPH. IN THIS SCENARIO, BLOWING DUST WOULD BE MUCH MORE
ISOLATED AND THE FIRE DANGER WOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER.
TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT, THE WINDS SHOULD LOWER INITIALLY AS THE
INVERSION SETS UP AND TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN QUICKLY. HOWEVER, WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS SHOULD MIX THE LOWER LEVELS AND EITHER STEADY OR
WARM TEMPERATURES. SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
A PROGRESSIVE, ENERGETIC AND LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.. WHEN A
STRONG (~150 KNOT) WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT OVER
THE NORTHERN CONUS (40-50N LATITUDE). WITH THE TRI-STATE AREA
SITUATED ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE /ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE/ OF A
POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET.. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH A MODEST COOLING
TREND (HIGHS IN THE 50'S) THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
WARMING TREND (HIGHS IN THE 60'S) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 AM MST WED DEC 17 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR AND BREEZY FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD WITH CLOUDS GENERALLY ABOVE 15000FT AND WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 20-35 KTS. ONCE THE SUN SETS, THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD WHERE THE WINDS EITHER LOWER TO 10-15 KTS OR GO CALM.
HOWEVER, BY 02-03Z, A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, FLIPPING WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
AROUND 40-50KTS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT SHORT
LIVED AND LOWER TO AROUND 20-30 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS AROUND
50-60 KTS WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW HUNDRED FEET. AROUND 15Z, WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND PROVIDE GUSTS AROUND
35-50 KTS, FAVORING KMCK FOR THE HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS.
THE WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR BLOWING
DUST. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF BROWN OUT CONDITIONS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 5
PM MST /6 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/ THURSDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 5
PM MST /6 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM MST /8 AM CST/ TO 5 PM MST /6 PM
CST/ THURSDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KAK
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