216
FXUS63 KGLD 180841
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
141 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT STARTING THIS EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT BRINGS SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.
- THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 55 AND 65 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME GUSTS COULD REACH 80 MPH.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY
AS WELL. FIRES WILL EXHIBIT EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO CONTROL.
- BLOWING DUST IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY. BE ALERT FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS AND BROWNOUTS.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
INITIAL ROUND OF WINDS ARE FINALLY "LETTING UP" HOWEVER STILL SOME
GUSTS OF 45-55 KNOTS REMAINS AS OF 0731Z. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOWEVER WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH CONTINUING AS
WE LOSE RESPONSE TO THE INITIAL COLD FRONT.
TODAY, CONTINUES TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT MULTIPLE
HAZARD DAY. WINDS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO RE-STRENGHTEN AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION BREAKS. I HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND TAILORED THEM
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WIND WHICH DID A PRETTY DECENT JOB AT THE WIND
FIELD WITH THE OVERACHIEVING WINDS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED
OVERNIGHT. BASING OFF OF THIS I CONTINUE TO HAVE CONCERNS FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 65- 75 MPH AGAIN BASED OFF OF WINDS IN THE UPPER
TIER OF THE MIXING LAYER REMAIN AROUND 60-70 KNOTS. THINK THAT
WINDS THIS STRONG MAY BE A BIT MORE SPORADIC AND NOT AS
CONSISTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONSISTENTLY BE IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST BEING
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHERE THE JET IS STRONGEST. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECLINE WEST TO EAST STARTING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE COMPLETELY ERODING AROUND 5PM MT TO 6PM CT AS
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION RESETS IN.
BLOWING DUST IS AGAIN A CONCERN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BUT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN BEING ALONG AND EAST OF A HITCHCOCK TO LOGAN
COUNTY LINE. THIS IS WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST ALONG
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 9-10 C/KM AND CAPPING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 4-5 C/KM. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
HABOOB POTENTIAL BUT HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT PLUMES PERHAPS NUMEROUS
PLUMES OF DUST WITH LESS THAN QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE PEAK TIME FOR CONCERN WILL
START AROUND 10AM CT AND LAST THROUGH AROUND 4PM CT WHEN WINDS
BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
AS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER, WENT AHEAD AND STARTED THE RED FLAG WARNING
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MULTIPLE FIRES ALREADY IN YUMA COUNTY. HAVE BROUGHT
DEW POINTS DOWN SOME DUE TO ANTICIPATED MIXING LEADING TO
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY BEING IN THE MID 20S WITH WINDS OF 60-75
MPH ANY FIRE THAT STARTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD VERY
QUICKLY AND BE DANGEROUS.
FRIDAY, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS STATE LINE. WATCHING FOR SOME
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE COLORADO
COUNTIES ALONG WITH HUMIDITY IN THE MID TEENS WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF THE LOW SETS UP TO FAR
SOUTH THEN WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BE LIGHTER THUSLY MITIGATING ANY
FURTHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT WHICH IS WHAT THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS. WILL LET ANOTHER ROUND OF GUIDANCE
COME IN BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY PRODUCT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE DAY ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S TO THE EAST AND LOW 70S. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES IS CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY "FURNACE WIND" IN PLACE LEADING TO RECORD
HIGHS BEING IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR SATURDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
FRIDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ALONG
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA. WHILE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND
LIMITING IMPACTS, IT IS STILL FORECAST TO HELP DEVELOP THE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND INCREASE THE WINDS TO AROUND 10-
20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY
IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE FOR COUNTIES
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. SIMILAR TO TODAY THOUGH, THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT CLOUD COVER MAY MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND SHIELD
THE AREA. IN THIS CASE, RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY NOT BE ABLE TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH, A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE, BUT
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR AS THE AREA SITS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S AND 30S. AS LONG AS A SHORTWAVE DOESN'T MOVE THROUGH AND
STAYS NORTH, WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
CHRISTMAS WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY NICE AND MILD FOR NOW AS
THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS MORE TO A ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY RIDGED
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 MPH ARE
FORECAST, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST WED DEC 17 2025
CURRENT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS AT KGLD ARE FORECAST TO
WANE THROUGH 07Z WHEN THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK BELOW 50
KNOTS. DONT'T LET YOUR GUARD UP AS WINDS WILL RE-INTENSIFY AGAIN
AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WANES MID MORNING WITH GUSTS OF
45-50 KNOTS AGAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE FULLY SUBSIDING AROUND 23Z.
AS FOR MCK WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT DELAYED BUT ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGEST PERHAPS TOMORROW
WHEN 50-55 KNOT GUSTS ARE FORECAST. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
FROM THE NNW.
BE AWARE FOR BLOWING DUST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY LEADING TO
LOCALIZED BROWNOUT POTENTIAL FOR EACH TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
NE...BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 2 AM MST /3 AM CST/ EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR NEZ079>081.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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