252
FXUS63 KGLD 181713
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1013 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60-75 MPH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT
SOME GUSTS COULD REACH 80 MPH.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY
AS WELL. FIRES WILL EXHIBIT EXPLOSIVE GROWTH AND BE
IMPOSSIBLE TO CONTROL.
- A BLOWING DUST WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
BROWNOUT CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
THE BLOWING DUST WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED WEST AGAIN ONE ROW OF
COUNTIES, INCLUDING MOST OF THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA COUNTIES IN
OUR AREA. YUMA IS ALSO INCLUDED. THE FORECAST OTHERWISE REMAINS
ON TRACK WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUING UNTIL 2-4PM TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 139 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
INITIAL ROUND OF WINDS ARE FINALLY "LETTING UP" HOWEVER STILL SOME
GUSTS OF 45-55 KNOTS REMAINS AS OF 0731Z. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOWEVER WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH CONTINUING AS
WE LOSE RESPONSE TO THE INITIAL COLD FRONT.
TODAY, CONTINUES TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH IMPACT MULTIPLE
HAZARD DAY. WINDS ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO RE-STRENGHTEN AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION BREAKS. I HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND TAILORED THEM
MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WIND WHICH DID A PRETTY DECENT JOB AT THE WIND
FIELD WITH THE OVERACHIEVING WINDS THAT WERE EXPERIENCED
OVERNIGHT. BASING OFF OF THIS I CONTINUE TO HAVE CONCERNS FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 65- 75 MPH AGAIN BASED OFF OF WINDS IN THE UPPER
TIER OF THE MIXING LAYER REMAIN AROUND 60-70 KNOTS. THINK THAT
WINDS THIS STRONG MAY BE A BIT MORE SPORADIC AND NOT AS
CONSISTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WIND GUSTS SHOULD
CONSISTENTLY BE IN THE 55-65 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST BEING
EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WHERE THE JET IS STRONGEST. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECLINE WEST TO EAST STARTING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE COMPLETELY ERODING AROUND 5PM MT TO 6PM CT AS
THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION RESETS IN.
BLOWING DUST IS AGAIN A CONCERN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BUT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF CONCERN BEING ALONG AND EAST OF A HITCHCOCK TO LOGAN
COUNTY LINE. THIS IS WHERE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONGEST ALONG
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 9-10 C/KM AND CAPPING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 4-5 C/KM. STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
HABOOB POTENTIAL BUT HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT PLUMES PERHAPS NUMEROUS
PLUMES OF DUST WITH LESS THAN QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. THE PEAK TIME FOR CONCERN WILL
START AROUND 10AM CT AND LAST THROUGH AROUND 4PM CT WHEN WINDS
BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
AS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER, WENT AHEAD AND STARTED THE RED FLAG WARNING
OVERNIGHT DUE TO MULTIPLE FIRES ALREADY IN YUMA COUNTY. HAVE BROUGHT
DEW POINTS DOWN SOME DUE TO ANTICIPATED MIXING LEADING TO
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY BEING IN THE MID 20S WITH WINDS OF 60-75
MPH ANY FIRE THAT STARTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD VERY
QUICKLY AND BE DANGEROUS.
FRIDAY, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST
NORTH OF THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS STATE LINE. WATCHING FOR SOME
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE COLORADO
COUNTIES ALONG WITH HUMIDITY IN THE MID TEENS WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF THE LOW SETS UP TO FAR
SOUTH THEN WINDS MAY ACTUALLY BE LIGHTER THUSLY MITIGATING ANY
FURTHER FIRE WEATHER THREAT WHICH IS WHAT THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS. WILL LET ANOTHER ROUND OF GUIDANCE
COME IN BEFORE INTRODUCING ANY PRODUCT. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE DAY ARE FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S TO THE EAST AND LOW 70S. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES IS CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE
WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY "FURNACE WIND" IN PLACE LEADING TO RECORD
HIGHS BEING IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR SATURDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SATURDAY; THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN A BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR AS THE AREA SITS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE LIGHTER WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 30-35 MPH
WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 30% AND NOT SEEING ANY
OTHER SIGNAL OF THEM DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY.
CHRISTMAS WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK RELATIVELY NICE AND MILD FOR NOW AS
THE UPPER PATTERN TRANSITIONS MORE TO A ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY RIDGED
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND PERHAPS SOME RECORD HIGH
POTENTIAL ON MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 20 MPH ARE FORECAST,
ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AROUND 50-60 KTS ARE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT 21Z. AROUND THAT TIME, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN
TO LOWER AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KTS AROUND 00Z. BLOWING DUST
HAS BEEN OBSERVED AND CAUSING VISIBILITY TO VARY BETWEEN 3-7SM.
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR 1SM OR LESS, ESPECIALLY FOR
KMCK. THE DUST THREAT SHOULD ALSO LOWER AND END BETWEEN 21-00Z.
ONCE EVERYTHING CALMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THE WINDS
HOWEVER, SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY AGAIN LATE IN THE NIGHT AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25-30 KTS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE CLOSE TO 12Z AS
THE TROUGH FINISHES SWINGING EAST AND BRINGS A NARROW AREA OF
45-50 KTS WINDS AROUND 300FT THROUGH THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN HIGH FOR TODAY AS WINDS ARE AGAIN
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WANES AROUND
9-10AM MT. DESPITE HUMIDITY VALUES BEING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WHICH IS ABOVE OUR HUMIDITY CRITERIA OF 15% WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH ANY FIRE THAT WERE TO START WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD RAPIDLY AND BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
AS GFDI (GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX) IN THE EXTREME VALUES FOR
MOST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. I DO HAVE CONCERNS
OF THE HIGHER END OF THE WIND GUST SPECTRUM PANNING OUT FOR
TODAY DUE TO MIXING HEIGHTS OF 4500-5000' WHICH WOULD PUT THE
TOP OF THE MIXING LEVEL IN A 60-70 KNOT JET. SO WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME 75-80 MPH GUSTS OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. BLOWING DUST IS A CONCERN
AS WELL FOR THE AREA WHICH WOULD MAKE RESPONDING TO ANY FIRE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A FEW CASES OVER THE
PAST FEW YEARS WHERE STATIC BUILDUP FROM DUST HAS LED TO NEW
FIRE STARTS SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
FRIDAY, AGAIN WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS YUMA, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE WINDS HOWEVER WHICH WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AT. SO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY THE 19TH.
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 68 IN 2023.... CURRENT FORECAST 70.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 63 IN 1941, 1966 2023.... CURRENT FORECAST 63.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 1949... CURRENT FORECAST 61.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 70 IN 1979.... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ252>254.
BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ090.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ079>081.
BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 2 PM MST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...KAK
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG/KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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