766
FXUS63 KGLD 190755
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1255 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
- 10-20% OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 504 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
DUE TO DECREASING WINDS AND THE INCREASED RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ACROSS THE AREA, THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. THE TRI-STATE AREA IS NOW HAZARD FREE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING
IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST, DRAGGING THE SURFACE LOW INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND THE
CLOUD COVER INHIBITS MIXING, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH WIND AND BLOWING DUST HAZARDS
WILL STILL CONTINUE FOR NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA UNTIL ABOUT 2-3PM
MT / 3-4PM CT. AS THE AREA GETS CLOSER TO SUNSET, THE INVERSION
SHOULD KICK IN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE THE WINDS
GO CALM FOR A BIT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE 40S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
THE EVENING IS FORECAST TO HAVE CALM CONDITIONS WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND CLEAR SKIES. AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARER SKIES SHOULD COOL A BIT
MORE INTO THE 20S. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THOUGH, ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS IT
DOES SO, THE WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE BIT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. THIS SHOULD MIX THE LOWER LEVELS
AND EITHER STEADY TEMPERATURES, OR WARM THEM A BIT INTO THE 30S.
TOMORROW, ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND HELP PUSH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE AREA. THE SAVING GRACE THIS TIME IS THAT THE
TROUGH SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING HOW INTENSE THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS. THE LOW WILL LIKELY BE BROAD ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH. AS LONG AS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ISN'T OVER THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY GUST
AROUND 25-35 MPH. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO
BORDER THAT COULD HAVE RH IN THE MID-TEENS. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY
LIES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT IS FORECAST TO STREAM
OVER THE AREA. IF IT IS THICK ENOUGH, TEMPERATURES WON'T BE ABLE TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S, KEEPING RH ABOVE 17%. STILL, MIGHT WANT
TO BE CAREFUL WITH FIRE AS RECENT DRYNESS AND THE CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST ELEVATED CONDITIONS.
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BE MOVING OVER THE AREA. AS IT
DOES, THE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN A BIT TO AROUND 5-15 MPH. WHILE THE
WINDS MAY LIGHTEN A BIT, THE CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
STREAM OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES IN THE
30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THE BACKSIDE OF
FRIDAY'S FRONT. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY MIGHT BE A BIT
HIGHER ON THE WINDS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST, BUT
CURRENTLY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. SKIES
ARE FORECAST TO HAVE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES AS THE
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS FOR SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO FORM DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN MOVE INTO AND CONCENTRATE OVER THE AREA.
CHRISTMAS WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK MAINLY DRY AND WARM AS THE UPPER
FLOW SHOULD EITHER BE ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY RIDGED. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND THE 5 TO 15
MPH RANGE WITH OVERALL LIGHTER FLOW. NO PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST AS DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, IT WOULDN'T BE UNREASONABLE FOR A TROUGH TO
SNEAK INTO THE ZONAL FLOW AND BRING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE
THERE IS NOT A CLEAR SIGNAL AT THIS TIME, THERE MAY BE A DAY OR TWO
NEXT WEEK THAT IS COOLER AND A BIT WINDIER COMPARED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST. EVEN SO, I'M NOT OVERLY CONCERNED THAT THERE WILL BE
ANYTHING HAZARDOUS AT THIS POINT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY, ZONAL SYNOPTIC FLOW IS FORECAST
TO IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. TOWARDS THE SURFACE A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING 850MB JET LOOKS TO BRING BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INCREASE IN WIND FIELDS
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. AT THIS TIME
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS INCREASE CLOSER TOWARDS 40-45 MPH
IS THE FEATURE CAN HOLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. THANKFULLY WITH THESE WINDS HUMIDITY IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 30% HELPING TO MITIGATE ANY FIRE
THREAT. BUT WITH THE CONTINUED DRY SPELL CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION
WITH ANY ACTIVITIES THAT INVOLVES SPARKS.
INTO THE WORK WEEK; SUBTLE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL
BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING LIKELY AT LEAST MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE HOWEVER SOME POTENTIALLY THICK
CIRRUS MAY MITIGATE HOW MUCH WE DO WARM UP. IF WE DO WARM WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A RUN TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN
OCCUR. OF COURSE WITH THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
HUMIDITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AS WELL.
CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY OVERLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR WINDS BUT SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE THE 850MB JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BUT
CURRENTLY IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW STRONG THE WINDS MAY BE
AS HANDFUL OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE LOW MOVING EVEN
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA QUICKER. OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HAZARDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
TABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS
AROUND 400-600 FEET AGL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING, AND COULD RETURN TOMORROW (FRIDAY)
NIGHT FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. KGLD COULD SEE SOME OF THE LLWS
WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE AROUND 8-10Z, BUT THESE GUSTS WOULD BE
PRETTY INFREQUENT. LATER THIS MORNING, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP. MOST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KTS, BUT A FEW 30 KTS
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SUNSET WILL SEE THE WINDS WEAKEN, AS
NORMAL. THERE IS A 5% CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN SATURDAY
MORNING, AROUND 12Z. THE TAFS IN 6 HOURS SHOULD HAVE MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM MST THU DEC 18 2025
FRIDAY, AGAIN WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS YUMA, KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
COLORADO. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE WINDS HOWEVER WHICH WILL
BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AT. SO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY THE 19TH.
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 68 IN 2023.... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 63 IN 1941, 1966 2023.... CURRENT FORECAST
64.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 1949... CURRENT FORECAST 61.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 70 IN 1979.... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY THE 22ND
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 73 IN 2024.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 73 IN 2024.... CURRENT FORECAST 62.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 69 IN 2019... CURRENT FORECAST 62.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 71 IN 2019.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THE 24TH
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 77 IN 1955.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 74 IN 1964.... CURRENT FORECAST 66.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 2021... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 79 IN 1955.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...KMK
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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