186
FXUS63 KGLD 190815
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
115 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
- 10-20% OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
TODAY, OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL, AND GENERALLY REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 0-12Z
SATURDAY. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, THERE IS
A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AT THAT TIME, SO
PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY.
TODAY, AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WE WILL SEE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATE. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG WAA IN THE MID
LEVELS AND MODERATE DOWNSLOPE WARMING AT THE SURFACE. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE MID LEVEL WAA WILL BE SO STRONG, WE KEEP A MODERATELY
STRONG (3-5C DEGREE) INVERSION ALL DAY. THIS INVERSION WILL PREVENT
THE STRONGER 35-45 KTS GUST FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE
INVERSION IN PLACE, WHICH IS EXPECTED, GUSTS WILL GENERALLY PEAK
AROUND 20-25 KTS, BUT A FEW 30 KTS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
25% CHANCE THE INVERSION DOES NOT HOLD. IN THIS CASE, AROUND 17-20Z,
TYPICAL GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30-35 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 45 KTS. EITHER WAY, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 18Z.
WITH THE WARMING MECHANICS IN PLACE TODAY, TEMPERATURES COULD BREAK
SOME RECORD HIGHS! MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. TEMPERATURES BETWEEN WRAY
AND WALLACE WILL WARM TO AROUND 70 AND NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF
KS 25 WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S. EAST OF KS 25, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY, TOO. OUR KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA AREAS WILL SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASES IN DEW POINTS, BUT
EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO VERY LOW 20S. COMBINED WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES, RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID TEENS FOR
A COUPLE HOURS TODAY. THE WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ARE LEADING TO
CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT MORE INFORMATION
ABOUT THAT CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
TONIGHT, PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 30S, EXCEPT NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY WHICH WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER
20S. LOCATIONS IN KANSAS SOUTH OF I-70 ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT. AROUND 3-9Z A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND SHIFT WINDS TO BE COMING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY, AN 850 MB HIGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN TODAY, AS WE WILL
BE RECEIVING SOME CAA AHEAD OF THE HIGH. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP HIGHS
CAPPED IN THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHERN CWA TO LOW 50S IN THE SOUTHERN
CWA.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND START
SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL COOL INTO
THE 20S OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL, NOT A NOTEWORTHY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD SUNDAY, ZONAL SYNOPTIC FLOW IS FORECAST
TO IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. TOWARDS THE SURFACE A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING 850MB JET LOOKS TO BRING BREEZY TO
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INCREASE IN WIND FIELDS
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF HAS IT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. AT THIS TIME
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS INCREASE CLOSER TOWARDS 40-45 MPH
IS THE FEATURE CAN HOLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. THANKFULLY WITH THESE WINDS HUMIDITY IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 30% HELPING TO MITIGATE ANY FIRE
THREAT. BUT WITH THE CONTINUED DRY SPELL CONTINUE TO USE CAUTION
WITH ANY ACTIVITIES THAT INVOLVES SPARKS.
INTO THE WORK WEEK; SUBTLE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL
BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING LIKELY AT LEAST MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE HOWEVER SOME POTENTIALLY THICK
CIRRUS MAY MITIGATE HOW MUCH WE DO WARM UP. IF WE DO WARM WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A RUN TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER 70S CAN
OCCUR. OF COURSE WITH THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
HUMIDITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AS WELL.
CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY OVERLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR WINDS BUT SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER.
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE THE 850MB JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BUT
CURRENTLY IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW STRONG THE WINDS MAY BE
AS HANDFUL OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE LOW MOVING EVEN
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA QUICKER. OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY HAZARDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY BUT MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE
TABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MST THU DEC 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS
AROUND 400-600 FEET AGL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 40-50 KTS IS
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING, AND COULD RETURN TOMORROW (FRIDAY)
NIGHT FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. KGLD COULD SEE SOME OF THE LLWS
WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE AROUND 8-10Z, BUT THESE GUSTS WOULD BE
PRETTY INFREQUENT. LATER THIS MORNING, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP. MOST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20 KTS, BUT A FEW 30 KTS
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SUNSET WILL SEE THE WINDS WEAKEN, AS
NORMAL. THERE IS A 5% CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN SATURDAY
MORNING, AROUND 12Z. THE TAFS IN 6 HOURS SHOULD HAVE MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
EASTERN COLORADO, MAINLY KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES, IS
FORECAST TO SEE RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON DROP TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS. AS THE FORECAST STANDS, HUMIDITY WILL ONLY FALL TO
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR LESS THAN 2 HOURS, AROUND 20-22Z. AS FAR AS THE
WINDS ARE CONCERNED, PEAK WINDS WILL BE AROUND 17-20Z, SUSTAINED AT
15-20 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS. EVEN WITHOUT
THE HUMIDITY BEING CRITICAL, THESE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF CAUSING
RAPID GROWTH OF WILDFIRES.
IN KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES, CONFIDENCE IN BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IS 90%, BUT CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG (CRITICAL FOR 3
HOURS) CONDITIONS IS ONLY ABOUT 40%. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE BRIEFLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT ADJACENT COUNTIES,
INCLUDING YUMA COUNTY.
THERE IS A PERSISTENT 10-20% CHANCE OF BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OCCURRING EACH DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1245 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY FRIDAY THE 19TH.
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 68 IN 2023.... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 63 IN 1941, 1966 2023.... CURRENT FORECAST
64.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 1949... CURRENT FORECAST 61.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 70 IN 1979.... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY THE 22ND
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 73 IN 2024.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 73 IN 2024.... CURRENT FORECAST 62.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 69 IN 2019... CURRENT FORECAST 62.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 71 IN 2019.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THE 24TH
GOODLAND: RECORD HIGH 77 IN 1955.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
MCCOOK: RECORD HIGH 74 IN 1964.... CURRENT FORECAST 66.
HILL CITY: RECORD HIGH 67 IN 2021... CURRENT FORECAST 69.
BURLINGTON: RECORD HIGH 79 IN 1955.... CURRENT FORECAST 71.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...CA
CLIMATE...TRIGG
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