934
FXUS63 KGLD 021740
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF HWY 83.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE ENERGY SITUATED OVER NEVADA AT 07 UTC THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS ESE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS (TODAY) AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS (TONIGHT). AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES (TONIGHT) WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (SAT).
TODAY: SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ESE-SE FROM THE 4-CORNERS
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS (TX PANHANDLE/OK) WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA (I.E. UNLIKELY TO AFFECT SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE GOODLAND CWA). FURTHER NORTH,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MODEST LEE CYCLONE
IN EASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MAY AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA (NORTH OF I-80, WELL NORTH OF THE GOODLAND CWA) LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WEAK E TO NE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
(REFERENCE SPC MESOANALYSIS 925 MB THERMAL ADVECTION) WILL
ADVECT A SHALLOW, COOLER AIRMASS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING.. WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE ~13-17Z TIME FRAME, MAINLY IN NORTON/GRAHAM
COUNTIES. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.. EXCEPT EAST OF HWY 83 (ESP ALONG/EAST OF
HWY 283) WHERE A SHALLOW, COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT AND LOW
STRATUS/FOG (IF PRESENT) MAY IMPEDE/DELAY DIURNAL HEATING.. AND
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50'S.
TONIGHT: STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS) ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND DECREASING
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL FOSTER RELATIVELY COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (THE 00Z
HRRR, IN PARTICULAR) SUGGESTS THAT A NOURTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG, ~50-75 MILES IN WIDTH (WEST TO EAST), MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN HWY 23 AND HWY 281 (POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS
RED WILLOW, DECATUR, SHERIDAN AND GOVE COUNTIES) LATE THIS
EVENING (~03-06Z SAT) AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE SAT MORNING.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL FOSTER CLEAR SKIES. ANY STRATUS/FOG IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT/VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA, EXCEPT IN EASTERN CO.. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DIURNALLY DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES..
WHERE A MODEST (~15-20 MPH) SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY ARISE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT RELATIVELY UNIFORM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60'S
AND OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS IN THE 30'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
OVERVIEW: A PRONOUNCED.. ALBEIT INCREASINGLY BROAD/FLATTENED..
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COMPLEX PATTERN TRANSITION WILL FOLLOW, MID-
LATE WEEK.
SUN-TUE: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.
FOR REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGHS IN EARLY JANUARY ARE 41-43F.
WED-FRI: POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST SPECIFICS. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL UNDERGO A COMPLEX
TRANSITION TO CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
CONSIDERABLE MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN VARIATION PERSISTS,
ENOUGH-SO THAT.. LITTLE MORE CAN BE DIVINED AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES IMPACTING MCK AND
LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IMPACTING THE TERMINAL.
FOR MCK, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SOME STRATUS AND FOG
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY
DOWN TO 3SM AND CEILINGS FALLING TO 015. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
THAT VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN FALL FURTHER HOWEVER. FOR
GLD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...TRIGG
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