911
FXUS63 KGLD 021823
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF HWY 83.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE ENERGY SITUATED OVER NEVADA AT 07 UTC THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS ESE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS (TODAY) AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS (TONIGHT). AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES (TONIGHT) WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS (SAT).
TODAY: SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ESE-SE FROM THE 4-CORNERS
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS (TX PANHANDLE/OK) WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA (I.E. UNLIKELY TO AFFECT SENSIBLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE GOODLAND CWA). FURTHER NORTH,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MODEST LEE CYCLONE
IN EASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE MAY AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEBRASKA (NORTH OF I-80, WELL NORTH OF THE GOODLAND CWA) LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WEAK E TO NE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
(REFERENCE SPC MESOANALYSIS 925 MB THERMAL ADVECTION) WILL
ADVECT A SHALLOW, COOLER AIRMASS INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING.. WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE ~13-17Z TIME FRAME, MAINLY IN NORTON/GRAHAM
COUNTIES. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA.. EXCEPT EAST OF HWY 83 (ESP ALONG/EAST OF
HWY 283) WHERE A SHALLOW, COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT AND LOW
STRATUS/FOG (IF PRESENT) MAY IMPEDE/DELAY DIURNAL HEATING.. AND
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50'S.
TONIGHT: STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING (COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS) ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND DECREASING
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL FOSTER RELATIVELY COLDER OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20'S TO LOWER 30'S. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE (THE 00Z
HRRR, IN PARTICULAR) SUGGESTS THAT A NOURTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG, ~50-75 MILES IN WIDTH (WEST TO EAST), MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN HWY 23 AND HWY 281 (POTENTIALLY AS FAR WEST AS
RED WILLOW, DECATUR, SHERIDAN AND GOVE COUNTIES) LATE THIS
EVENING (~03-06Z SAT) AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE SAT MORNING.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION
WILL FOSTER CLEAR SKIES. ANY STRATUS/FOG IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. LIGHT/VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA, EXCEPT IN EASTERN CO.. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DIURNALLY DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES..
WHERE A MODEST (~15-20 MPH) SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY ARISE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT RELATIVELY UNIFORM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60'S
AND OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS IN THE 30'S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA). MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WE COULD
SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. TUESDAY, THINGS SLIGHTLY COOL DOWN WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WE REMAIN UNDER A
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW, BUT A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO
BREAK THAT PATTERN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
OUR CWA WEDNESDAY IS FAIRLY WEAK, SO LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) OF <5% FOR THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT
LOWS CREEP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A SECOND TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND DEEPENS UNTIL IT PASSES THROUGH OUR CWA
FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH BUILDS WEST OF US AND MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA,
WE SEE POPS INCREASE TO 15-20% BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY, EXPECT
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S, BUT
WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS. POPS CONTINUE TO BE 15-20%
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IF PRECIPITATION DOES
OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE CURRENT
SET UP AND THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. SOME MODELS WERE
SHOWING A SLOWER MOVING TROUGH AS WELL, WHICH COULD CHANGE TIMING OF
WHEN PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES IMPACTING MCK AND
LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IMPACTING THE TERMINAL.
FOR MCK, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SOME STRATUS AND FOG
IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY
DOWN TO 3SM AND CEILINGS FALLING TO 015. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE
THAT VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN FALL FURTHER HOWEVER. FOR
GLD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TRIGG/RHOADES
AVIATION...TRIGG
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