142
FXUS63 KGLD 022356
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
456 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER IS FORECAST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING
- FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A HITCHCOCK TO LOGAN COUNTY LINE. DENSE FOG
MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS SHERIDAN, DECATUR,
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS WHERE AN
INCREASE IN THE WIND FIELDS IS SEEN LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS YUMA, DUNDY,
CHEYENNE (KS). WITH THE LOW, AN INCREASE IN 500MB VORTICITY IS
OCCURRING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
CONTINUE TO THINK THAT MAINLY SPRINKLES WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
FORM OF ANY PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS.
WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE 500 MB VORTICITY CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A ROGUE SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY 10% AND WOULD
CONFINED TO HITCHCOCK, RED WILLOW, NORTON, DECATUR COUNTIES.
ANOTHER STRONG 500MB VORTICITY MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TO SE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT AGAIN THINK SPRINKLES OR VIRGA
IS MOST LIKELY AS DRY AIR STILL REMAINS NEAR THE SURFACE.
TONIGHT, FOG REMAINS FORECAST TO FORM STARTING AS EARLY AS 7PM CT.
RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP SATURATED LAYER TO AROUND 1000 FEET AGL
AND CALM WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM COUNTY BY 07Z. 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1/2 MILE OR
LESS ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE
WITH HOW DEEP THE SATURATED LAYER ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS. I DID
EXTEND THE INHERITED FOG AREA BACK A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE
HIGHWAY 25 CORRIDOR AS WINDS MAY BE EASTERLY JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR
SOME FOG TO FORM. THERE IS ONE CAVEAT TO THE FOG POTENTIAL HOWEVER
AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TRENDING TOWARDS WINDS TURNING WESTERLY
QUICKER WHICH IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
DUE TO CONCERNS WITH THIS WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING WHICH IF FOG IS DENSE LONG ENOUGH SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY
FORM ON ELEVATED SURFACES.
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS OUR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. I DID BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CONCERNS OF THE FOG
AND STRATUS LINGERING, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S
SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTON AND GRAHAM WHICH I CURRENTLY
HAVE IN THE MID 50S, BUT IF THE FOG/STRATUS DOES NOT WANT TO LEAVE
THEN THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE MID 40S.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO EVEN POTENTIALLY LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WARMING. WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCE IS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES QUICKER THROUGH THE
AREA THAN WHAT WAS BEING SEEN YESTERDAY. DUE TO THIS, THE 850MB
WIND FIELD LOOKS TO BE WEAKER WHICH DOES LIMIT MY CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER CURRENTLY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS TREND
DOES CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA (CWA). MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WE COULD
SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. TUESDAY, THINGS SLIGHTLY COOL DOWN WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WE REMAIN UNDER A
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW, BUT A SERIES OF TROUGHS WILL ATTEMPT TO
BREAK THAT PATTERN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
OUR CWA WEDNESDAY IS FAIRLY WEAK, SO LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WITH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) OF <5% FOR THE
CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT
LOWS CREEP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A SECOND TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND DEEPENS UNTIL IT PASSES THROUGH OUR CWA
FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH BUILDS WEST OF US AND MOVES TOWARDS OUR CWA,
WE SEE POPS INCREASE TO 15-20% BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LOWS
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY, EXPECT
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S, BUT
WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS. POPS CONTINUE TO BE 15-20%
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IF PRECIPITATION DOES
OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE CURRENT
SET UP AND THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. SOME MODELS WERE
SHOWING A SLOWER MOVING TROUGH AS WELL, WHICH COULD CHANGE TIMING OF
WHEN PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
SHOULD CLEAR OVER KGLD BY 06Z AND KMCK BY 14Z. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE AND THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AT ~5-10 KTS DURING
THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR SOME SPRINKLES IMPACTING
MCK AND LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL THROUGH 02Z. FOR MCK, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SOME
STRATUS AND FOG IMPACTING THE TERMINAL. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE
OF VISIBILITY DOWN TO 3SM AND CEILINGS FALLING BELOW 1500 FT.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN FALL
FURTHER HOWEVER CLOSER TO SUNRISE. FOR GLD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...KMK
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