336
FXUS63 KGLD 030529
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP EAST OF HWY 83 EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
MAINLY IN RED WILLOW, DECATUR, SHERIDAN, GOVE, NORTON, AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. A FEW SLICK SPOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, MAINLY IN NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND FREEZING FOG
IS POSSIBLE. FOG WILL LIFT/DISSIPATE BY LATE SAT MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 117 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA LEADING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS WHERE AN
INCREASE IN THE WIND FIELDS IS SEEN LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ESPECIALLY ACROSS YUMA, DUNDY,
CHEYENNE (KS). WITH THE LOW, AN INCREASE IN 500MB VORTICITY IS
OCCURRING LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE. CONTINUE
TO THINK THAT MAINLY SPRINKLES WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY FORM OF
ANY PRECIPITATION DUE TO DRYNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE 500 MB VORTICITY CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
ROGUE SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS ONLY 10% AND WOULD
CONFINED TO HITCHCOCK, RED WILLOW, NORTON, DECATUR COUNTIES.
ANOTHER STRONG 500MB VORTICITY MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TO SE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT AGAIN THINK SPRINKLES OR VIRGA
IS MOST LIKELY AS DRY AIR STILL REMAINS NEAR THE SURFACE.
TONIGHT, FOG REMAINS FORECAST TO FORM STARTING AS EARLY AS 7PM
CT. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP SATURATED LAYER TO AROUND 1000
FEET AGL AND CALM WINDS ACROSS GRAHAM COUNTY BY 07Z. 12Z HREF
PROBABILITIES SHOW AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES
FALLING TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS ACROSS NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
WHICH SEEMS VERY REASONABLE WITH HOW DEEP THE SATURATED LAYER
ACCORDING TO SOUNDINGS. I DID EXTEND THE INHERITED FOG AREA BACK
A LITTLE CLOSER TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 25 CORRIDOR AS WINDS MAY BE
EASTERLY JUST LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG TO FORM. THERE IS ONE
CAVEAT TO THE FOG POTENTIAL HOWEVER AS SOME GUIDANCE HAS STARTED
TRENDING TOWARDS WINDS TURNING WESTERLY QUICKER WHICH IS NOT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO CONCERNS
WITH THIS WILL OPT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WHICH IF
FOG IS DENSE LONG ENOUGH SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY FORM ON ELEVATED
SURFACES.
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS OUR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. I DID BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES A FEW DEGREES
DUE TO CONCERNS OF THE FOG AND STRATUS LINGERING, SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAPPENED TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE LOW 60S SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTON
AND GRAHAM WHICH I CURRENTLY HAVE IN THE MID 50S, BUT IF THE
FOG/STRATUS DOES NOT WANT TO LEAVE THEN THEY MAY STRUGGLE TO GET
TO THE MID 40S.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO EVEN POTENTIALLY LOW 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WARMING. WITH
THE WARM TEMPERATURES HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES QUICKER
THROUGH THE AREA THAN WHAT WAS BEING SEEN YESTERDAY. DUE TO
THIS, THE 850MB WIND FIELD LOOKS TO BE WEAKER WHICH DOES LIMIT
MY CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CURRENTLY. WILL BE INTERESTING TO
SEE IF THIS TREND DOES CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA). MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BUT WE COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. TUESDAY, THINGS SLIGHTLY
COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WE
REMAIN UNDER A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW, BUT A SERIES OF TROUGHS
WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK THAT PATTERN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA WEDNESDAY IS FAIRLY WEAK, SO
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION (POPS) OF <5% FOR THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL IN THE MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT LOWS CREEP DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S.
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A SECOND TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND DEEPENS UNTIL IT PASSES THROUGH
OUR CWA FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH BUILDS WEST OF US AND MOVES
TOWARDS OUR CWA, WE SEE POPS INCREASE TO 15-20% BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. LOWS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY, EXPECT MORE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S,
BUT WIND CHILL VALUES DROP TO SINGLE DIGITS. POPS CONTINUE TO BE
15-20% FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IF PRECIPITATION
DOES OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE
CURRENT SET UP AND THE INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. SOME
MODELS WERE SHOWING A SLOWER MOVING TROUGH AS WELL, WHICH COULD
CHANGE TIMING OF WHEN PRECIPITATION OCCURS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED AT OR ABOVE ~10,000 FT AGL. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS (THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW
AND INCREASING TO ~9-14 KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
(~21Z) AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
MCK: IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD
(06-12Z SAT). OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE MCCOOK TERMINAL MAY BE AT OR NEAR THE
FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL, WITH CEILINGS CONFINED AT
OR ABOVE ~15,000 FT AGL AND PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
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