535
FXUS63 KGLD 030758
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1258 AM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP EAST OF HWY 83 EARLY THIS MORNING,
MAINLY IN RED WILLOW, DECATUR, SHERIDAN, GOVE, NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES. DENSE FOG, IF/WHERE PRESENT, WOULD DISSIPATE
A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
THIS MORNING: AS OF 0745 UTC, FOG PERSISTS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MCK-OIN-NRN-HLC), WHERE VISIBILITIES RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 MILES. CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER A LIMITED PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, MAINLY IN RED WILLOW,
DECATUR, SHERIDAN, GOVE, NORTON, AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. A FEW
SLICK SPOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES,
MAINLY IN NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
RELATIVELY COLDER (UPPER 20S). A SHORT-FUSED DENSE FOG ADVISORY
MAY BE NECESSARY IF OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES. DENSE FOG (IF/WHERE PRESENT) WOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (BY ~15-16 UTC).
TODAY-TONIGHT: A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL FOSTER CLEAR SKIES. ANY STRATUS/FOG IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, EXCEPT IN EASTERN CO.. ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES.. WHERE A MODEST (~15-20 MPH) SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY ARISE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT RELATIVELY UNIFORM HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50'S TO LOWER 60'S. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING LEE
TROUGH.. AND A THICK VEIL OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS..
WILL FOSTER RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS
RANGING FROM ~32-40F.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: UNIDIRECTIONAL /WESTERLY/ FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.. WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY BROAD/FLATTENED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.. AND DECREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.. WILL FOSTER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS (~65-70F).
COMPLICATED WIND FORECAST. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH
(AT 850 MB) WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY ON SUN.. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS FEATURE (A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH) WILL LAG BEHIND AND STALL
OVER WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.. LEAVING AN ILL-
DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND, IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE A FUNCTION OF
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ASSOC/W VERTICAL MIXING. WHILE
~20-30 KNOT NW-WNW FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EASTWARD DEPARTING 850 MB TROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL
MIXING WILL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE.. AND MAY NOT FAVORABLY OVERLAP
WITH THE BREEZIEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND,
EXPECT WSW TO NW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-20 MPH. OCCASIONAL/
SPORADIC NW GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE, MOST
LIKELY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.. WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS
WILL BOTTOM-OUT ~15-20% DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE WARM
TREND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S. THAT BEING SAID, THE PATTERN COULD BREAK DOWN AS AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND POTENTIALLY SENDS
SOME SHORTWAVES THROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE WAVES THOUGH, TEMPERATURES
WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER AND ALLOW US TO
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE WITH DRY AIR STILL FORECAST TO BE PRESENT AT THE
SURFACE. THE MAIN THING THAT COULD CHANGE IS WE MAY HAVE MORE CLOUD
COVER IF THESE WAVES MOVES THROUGH WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE MID PART OF THE WEEK IS FORECAST TO BRING A PATTERN SHIFT AS A
LARGER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. LIKELY, WEDNESDAY WILL STILL HAVE THE TROUGH FAR ENOUGH
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THAT WE WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS
IN THE 50S/60S ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY IS IF PART OF THE TROUGH EJECTS OFF AND BRINGS A SMALLER
SYSTEM THROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. LIKELY, IT WOULD JUST LEAD
TO SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS THE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE ISSUE IS THAT ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND THE NBM ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD IN POSSIBILITIES WITH
THIS TROUGH, FROM IT EJECTING QUICKLY AND LIFTING NORTH, TO IS
SLOWING AND DIGGING SOUTH. IN MOST CASES, THE AREA IS LIKELY JUST
GOING TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS, HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S, AND
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS. IN THE WORSE CASES, SOME SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
WOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA AROUND LATE THURSDAY. I'M NOT OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT ANY
PARTICULAR SCENARIO GIVEN THAT THERE IS SIZABLE SPREAD IN THE
TROUGH INTENSITY AND TIMING, SO STUCK WITH THE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
FOR NOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED AT OR ABOVE ~10,000 FT AGL. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS (THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON) WILL SHIFT TO THE SSW
AND INCREASING TO ~9-14 KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON
(~21Z) AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
MCK: IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH DENSE FOG AND/OR LOW
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD
(06-12Z SAT). OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE MCCOOK TERMINAL MAY BE AT OR NEAR THE
FAR WESTERN EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL, WITH CEILINGS CONFINED AT
OR ABOVE ~15,000 FT AGL AND PREDOMINANTLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...VINCENT
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