318
FXUS63 KGLD 031702
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1002 AM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 AM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
QUICKLY ERODED THE FOG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SATELLITE
SUGGESTS SOME LINGERING FOG ACROSS FAR EASTERN GRAHAM AND NORTON
COUNTIES BUT SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS DON'T SUGGEST DENSE FOG AS
VISIBILITIES RANGE FROM 2-5SM. ANY LINGERING FOG ACROSS THOSE
COUNTIES ARE FORECAST TO END IN THE NEXT 30-60 MINUTES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
THIS MORNING: AS OF 0745 UTC, FOG PERSISTS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MCK-OIN-NRN-HLC), WHERE VISIBILITIES RANGE
FROM 2 TO 5 MILES. CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER A LIMITED PORTION
OF THE AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, MAINLY IN RED WILLOW,
DECATUR, SHERIDAN, GOVE, NORTON, AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. A FEW
SLICK SPOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES,
MAINLY IN NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
RELATIVELY COLDER (UPPER 20S). A SHORT-FUSED DENSE FOG ADVISORY
MAY BE NECESSARY IF OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATES RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES. DENSE FOG (IF/WHERE PRESENT) WOULD
DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (BY ~15-16 UTC).
TODAY-TONIGHT: A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL FOSTER CLEAR SKIES. ANY STRATUS/FOG IN EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA, EXCEPT IN EASTERN CO.. ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES.. WHERE A MODEST (~15-20 MPH) SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAY ARISE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT RELATIVELY UNIFORM HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50'S TO LOWER 60'S. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING LEE
TROUGH.. AND A THICK VEIL OF OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CIRRUS..
WILL FOSTER RELATIVELY WARMER OVERNIGHT (SUN MORNING) LOWS
RANGING FROM ~32-40F.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: UNIDIRECTIONAL /WESTERLY/ FLOW ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.. WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY BROAD/FLATTENED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.. AND DECREASING UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER.. WILL FOSTER WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS (~65-70F).
COMPLICATED WIND FORECAST. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH
(AT 850 MB) WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA DURING THE
DAY ON SUN.. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THIS FEATURE (A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH) WILL LAG BEHIND AND STALL
OVER WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.. LEAVING AN ILL-
DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND, IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE A FUNCTION OF
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ASSOC/W VERTICAL MIXING. WHILE
~20-30 KNOT NW-WNW FLOW WILL BE PRESENT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EASTWARD DEPARTING 850 MB TROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL
MIXING WILL BE SHALLOW IN NATURE.. AND MAY NOT FAVORABLY OVERLAP
WITH THE BREEZIEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND,
EXPECT WSW TO NW WINDS GENERALLY AT 10-20 MPH. OCCASIONAL/
SPORADIC NW GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE, MOST
LIKELY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.. WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS
WILL BOTTOM-OUT ~15-20% DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 PM MST FRI JAN 2 2026
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE WARM
TREND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S. THAT BEING SAID, THE PATTERN COULD BREAK
DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER AND
POTENTIALLY SENDS SOME SHORTWAVES THROUGH. EVEN WITH THESE WAVES
THOUGH, TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY ONLY BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER AND ALLOW US TO CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WITH DRY AIR
STILL FORECAST TO BE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. THE MAIN THING THAT
COULD CHANGE IS WE MAY HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER IF THESE WAVES
MOVES THROUGH WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE MID PART OF THE WEEK IS FORECAST TO BRING A PATTERN SHIFT
AS A LARGER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS AS
THE WEEK PROGRESSES. LIKELY, WEDNESDAY WILL STILL HAVE THE
TROUGH FAR ENOUGH UPSTREAM OF THE AREA THAT WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. THE THING TO WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY IS IF PART OF THE
TROUGH EJECTS OFF AND BRINGS A SMALLER SYSTEM THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM. LIKELY, IT WOULD JUST LEAD TO SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE ISSUE IS THAT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND THE NBM ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD IN POSSIBILITIES WITH THIS
TROUGH, FROM IT EJECTING QUICKLY AND LIFTING NORTH, TO IS
SLOWING AND DIGGING SOUTH. IN MOST CASES, THE AREA IS LIKELY
JUST GOING TO SEE SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS, HIGHS IN THE
40S/50S, AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS. IN THE WORSE CASES, SOME SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS WOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE
LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AROUND LATE THURSDAY. I'M NOT OVERLY
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT ANY PARTICULAR SCENARIO GIVEN THAT THERE IS
SIZABLE SPREAD IN THE TROUGH INTENSITY AND TIMING, SO STUCK WITH
THE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT TO INITIALLY START THE
PERIOD FOR GLD BEFORE AN INCREASE TO AROUND 12KTS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR STARTING AROUND 20Z AS SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP
TO THE WEST. MCK IS FORECAST TO BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
TROUGH FOR THE WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE TROUGH HOWEVER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT LEADING TO BREEZY
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS AS SOME MIXING IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR. IF THE WINDS DO NOT MIX DOWN THEN LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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