568
FXUS63 KGLD 040450
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
950 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SHORT PERIOD OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS ENCROACHING UPON THE AREA LEADING TO
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA TODAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MAINLY AROUND 5-10 MPH.
SOME WINDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AS WINDS TAKE ON MORE OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE EVENING AS WINDS REMAIN
SUSTAINED AROUND 10-15 MPH. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS AT SOME POINT TONIGHT AS WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS SHOULD HELP TO LEAD SOME MIXING DESPITE LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
AS A 25-30 KNOT JET RESIDES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS LONG AS
THE WEAK MIXING OCCURS AND THE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY NOT EVEN FALL
OUT OF THE 40S. IF THE WINDS WERE TO LIGHTEN UP THEN
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE PRONE TO FALLING CLOSER TO FREEZING.
SUNDAY, CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST AS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. I WENT
WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE DUE TO DOWNSLOPING
WESTERLY WINDS BUT OPTED TO CAP IT AT THE CURRENT FORECAST DUE
TO AN INCREASE IN MID- UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH MAY TEMPER HOW
WARM TEMPERATURES DO GET. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES HUMIDITY IS
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS MAINLY FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE
COUNTIES HOWEVER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SOME SITES ACROSS YUMA
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES MEETING CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH AROUND 18-19Z THEN WINDS QUICKLY FALLING OFF.
THERE IS A 5%-10% CHANCE THAT THE WAVE SLOWS DOWN LEADING TO A
LONGER DURATION OF OVERLAP OF THESE CONDITIONS AND LESS THAN 5%
CHANCE THE TROUGH STALLS OVER THE AREA AND LEADS TO EVEN WINDIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY.
WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO ENSUE FOR MONDAY AS WE HAVE
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WINDS ARE FORECAST BE LIGHTER AGAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE LATTER PART OF THAT RANGE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
A STRONG 500MB VORTICITY MAX MONDAY EVENING MAY LEAD TO
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE AREA AS DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS A POTENTIAL PATTERN
CHANGE AND SYSTEM MID TO LATE WEEK. LATEST 12Z GEFS MEAN SPREAD
AND SPAGHETTI MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PATH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WHICH HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE CAVEAT STILL LIES
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE
TROUGH. A FURTHER EAST POSITIONING WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHEREAS A SLOWER
PROGRESSION WOULD IMPACT MORE SO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z
RUN OF THE GEFS MEAN MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE 12Z RUN OF THE
GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF-AIFS WHICH IS WHAT IS WHAT THE CURRENT
DISCUSSION WILL BE MORE TIED TO. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN OF
THE ECMWF PULLS THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH LOOKS TO BE
OUTLIER TRACK BASED ON SPAGHETTI MODELS. OVERALL DO AGREE WITH
THE RECENT UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA BUT HAVE
ALSO NOTED A GRADUAL NORTHWARD NUDGE WITH THE PREVIOUS 3 RUNS
OF THE ECMWF-AI WHICH IF CONTINUES MAY KEEP THE BETTER FORCING
AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST NUISANCE TO
MINOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SEE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE COOL DOWN WITH THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE DAY OF
MOST VARIABILITY BEING THURSDAY DUE TO SPREAD OF TIMING WITH THE
SYSTEM. WITH AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM MORE NORMAL FOR EARLY
JANUARY TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AT LEAST FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000 FT AGL. S TO SW
WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE W A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE (BY ~15Z SUN). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A BROAD LEE SURFACE
TROUGH STALLS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, ALBEIT WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC NW WINDS AT ~12-17 KNOTS.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000 FT AGL. S TO SW
WINDS AT 7-13 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW OR NW DURING THE MID-
LATE MORNING (~15-18Z SUN). WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGH STALLS OVER
THE REGION, WITH THE CAVEAT THAT.. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
ASSOC/W MODEST VERTICAL MIXING MAY ALLOW OCCASIONAL/SPORADIC NW
WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1241 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
WATCHING A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S, THIS WILL HELP LOWER HUMIDITY INTO THE MID
TEENS FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO LINE. A
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 15 AND
18Z RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME INSTANCES OF WIND GUSTS OF 25-35
MPH TO OCCUR. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE THAT THE WAVE IS DELAYED
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE OF A PROLONGED OVERLAP OF THE STRONGER
WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES POTENTIALLY FALLING EVEN LOWER. THERE
IS AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE LESS THAN 5% OF THE WAVE STALLING OVER
THE AREA LEADING BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING FOR THE DURATION OF THE
AFTERNOON LEADING TO MORE OF A PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. THE TRICKY PART OF THIS FORECAST IS MOST IF NOT
ALL OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST AS THE AFTERNOON
GOES ON WHICH SEVERELY LIMITS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN IF EITHER
OF THE TWO ABOVE LISTED SCENARIOS PANS OUT. WITH OUR CONTINUED
DRY SPELL OUTSIDE OF THE LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE THAT OCCURRED
LAST WEEKEND HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED 10 HOUR FUELS CLOSER TO
13-15% ACCORDING TO KANSAS MESONET DATA BUT 100 HOUR FUELS STILL
REMAINS AROUND 11% DUE TO DORMANCY VEGETATION WHICH DOES LEAD
TO ME SOME CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE GROWTH IF
ENOUGH OF AN OVERLAP DOES OCCUR. IF THE WAVE DOES SLOW DOWN AND
WINDS DO CONTINUE LONGER THEN MULTIPLE HOURS OF VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES WOULD OCCUR. OVERALL THOUGH,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH DUE TO THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF
THIS SETUP TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT AT
THIS TIME BUT IF GUIDANCE DOES TREND TO FAVOR A SLOWER SHORTWAVE
THEN A SHORT LEAD TIME RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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