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FXUS63 KGLD 040726
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1226 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
TODAY: UNIDIRECTIONAL /WESTERLY/ FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION, WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY BROAD/FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LEE TROUGH THIS MORNING, AND
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WILL FOSTER WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS (~67-72F). WHILE THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THE LEE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA TODAY, THE
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL LAG BEHIND AND STALL OVER THE REGION,
LEAVING AN ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT (10-15 MPH)
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W OR NW AT 10-15 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RECENT (00Z
01/04) GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BREEZY (~20-25 KNOT) NW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING 850 MB TROUGH
WILL EXIT THE GOODLAND CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON (~18-19Z). PRIOR
TO THAT (DURING THE LATE MORNING), SHALLOW VERTICAL MIXING MAY
ALLOW SOMEWHAT BREEZY (~15-25 MPH) NW WINDS TO BRIEFLY OR
INTERMITTENTLY MIX TO THE SURFACE, MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 36.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON, AS AN 850 MB RIDGE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER (TODAY): THE RELATIVE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SPORADIC 15-25 MPH NW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE IN FAR
N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MAINLY SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA), WHERE
MINIMUM RH READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM-OUT AT 20-30%. NO
APPRECIABLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE GOODLAND CWA.
TONIGHT: EXPECT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (MAINLY
AFTER 06Z MON) IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING NE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH OVERNIGHT (MONDAY MORNING)
LOWS IN THE 30'S.
MON-MON NIGHT: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST. MODEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ASHORE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
CA TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS (MONDAY
MORNING) THEN ENE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (MONDAY
AFTERNOON) AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY (MONDAY NIGHT). AN
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER (MONDAY AFTERNOON) AND TRACK EAST
TOWARD IOWA/MINNESOTA (MONDAY EVE/NIGHT). FURTHER SOUTH, A
BROAD/BAGGY SURFACE-850 MB TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, THEN PROGRESS EAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS MAY
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE DAY, EXCEPT
(PERHAPS) IN GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES.. IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO ~20-30 KNOT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL (850 MB) FLOW OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.. WHERE WESTERLY
WINDS MAY REACH 15-20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER (MONDAY): WESTERLY WINDS MAY REACH 15-20 MPH
ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 96 (SOUTHERN GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES) FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (~20-22Z), WHEN AND WHERE
MINIMUM RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT ~20-25%. WARMER
TEMPERATURES, DRIER CONDITIONS AND BREEZIER W WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS AND THE TX-OK PANHANDLES. NO
APPRECIABLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE GOODLAND CWA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE MID PART OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO START OUT
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. RIGHT NOW THOUGH, THEY ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO BRING IN SOME MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH
WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND REMAIN FORECAST TO SEE A STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. AS THE PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM
THE DAY MENTIONED, GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
WHAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD LOOK LIKE AND WHERE IT WILL PROGRESS.
IN MOST CASES, THE TROUGH SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS,
MORE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION, WITH RAIN AS THE MORE LIKELY TYPE WITH SOME SNOW
MAYBE MIXING IN. THE ISSUE IS THE TIMING. THE FASTER SOLUTIONS
WOULD LIKELY MOVE THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND LEAD TO
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER SYSTEMS WOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW WITH A LATE PASSAGE MORE OVER THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS A MIX OF THE TWO WHILE
FAVORING THE SLOWER BASED ON ENSEMBLE SPREADS. WHILE THE RECENT
CONSISTENCY HAS HELPED, STILL GOING TO BE WATCHING FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK OR SHAPE OF THE TROUGH IN THE COMING DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
SCENARIO, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA AS WELL. MOST CASES KEEP WIND
GUSTS BELOW 50 MPH, BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTING AT A HIGH WIND
DAY(S). CURRENTLY THE CHANCE FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 10-15%, WHETHER WIND, SNOW, OR BOTH.
THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE COLD TREND AS ANOTHER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE LIKELY TO
LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES, STRONGER WINDS, AND MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE INTENSITY IS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EARLIER TROUGH. SO LOOK FOR MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM MST SAT JAN 3 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000 FT AGL. S TO SW
WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE W A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE (BY ~15Z SUN). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A BROAD LEE SURFACE
TROUGH STALLS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, ALBEIT WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC NW WINDS AT ~12-17 KNOTS.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000 FT AGL. S TO SW
WINDS AT 7-13 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW OR NW DURING THE MID-
LATE MORNING (~15-18Z SUN). WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGH STALLS OVER
THE REGION, WITH THE CAVEAT THAT.. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
ASSOC/W MODEST VERTICAL MIXING MAY ALLOW OCCASIONAL/SPORADIC NW
WINDS AT 10-20 KNOTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...VINCENT
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