685
FXUS63 KGLD 041516
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
816 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 759 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR TODAY AS
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH A
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER SIGNAL FOR THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS. CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AREA WIDE ALONG
WITH MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS
MIXING MAY BE A LITTLE DEEPER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WHICH
IS AROUND 5500-6000 FEET AGL ACROSS YUMA, KIT CARSON, CHEYENNE
(CO). IF THIS PROVE TO BE TRUE THEN WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER
SO HAVE INCREASED THAT AS WELL. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THE FV3 FOR TODAY AS THE 00Z RUN IS DEPICTING THE
CURRENT SHORTWAVE POSITION, CURRENT DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY DECENTLY. SINCE THE FV3 IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS MIXING IS
HANDLED DECENTLY AS WELL AND IS SHOWING A PERIOD OF BREEZIER
WINDS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES STARTING AS EARLY
AS 17Z. SIMILAR TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE WINDS DO LOOK TO WANE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AROUND 19-20Z OR SO. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW (25%) IN 3 OR MORE HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO OCCUR TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
TODAY: UNIDIRECTIONAL /WESTERLY/ FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION, WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY BROAD/FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LEE TROUGH THIS MORNING, AND
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WILL FOSTER WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS (~67-72F). WHILE THE 850 MB REFLECTION OF THE LEE
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA TODAY, THE
SURFACE REFLECTION WILL LAG BEHIND AND STALL OVER THE REGION,
LEAVING AN ILL-DEFINED MSLP GRADIENT OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT (10-15 MPH)
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W OR NW AT 10-15 MPH LATE THIS
MORNING AND BECOME VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. RECENT (00Z
01/04) GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BREEZY (~20-25 KNOT) NW LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING 850 MB TROUGH
WILL EXIT THE GOODLAND CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON (~18-19Z). PRIOR
TO THAT (DURING THE LATE MORNING), SHALLOW VERTICAL MIXING MAY
ALLOW SOMEWHAT BREEZY (~15-25 MPH) NW WINDS TO BRIEFLY OR
INTERMITTENTLY MIX TO THE SURFACE, MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 36.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THIS
AFTERNOON, AS AN 850 MB RIDGE DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE TRI-
STATE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER (TODAY): THE RELATIVE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SPORADIC 15-25 MPH NW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE IN FAR
N AND NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MAINLY SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA), WHERE
MINIMUM RH READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BOTTOM-OUT AT 20-30%. NO
APPRECIABLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE GOODLAND CWA.
TONIGHT: EXPECT INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (MAINLY
AFTER 06Z MON) IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING NE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH OVERNIGHT (MONDAY MORNING)
LOWS IN THE 30'S.
MON-MON NIGHT: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST. MODEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ASHORE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN
CA TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS NE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS (MONDAY
MORNING) THEN ENE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE (MONDAY
AFTERNOON) AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY (MONDAY NIGHT). AN
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER (MONDAY AFTERNOON) AND TRACK EAST
TOWARD IOWA/MINNESOTA (MONDAY EVE/NIGHT). FURTHER SOUTH, A
BROAD/BAGGY SURFACE-850 MB TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE TRI-STATE
AREA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, THEN PROGRESS EAST INTO EASTERN
KANSAS/NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS MAY
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE DAY, EXCEPT
(PERHAPS) IN GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES.. IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO ~20-30 KNOT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL (850 MB) FLOW OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.. WHERE WESTERLY
WINDS MAY REACH 15-20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER (MONDAY): WESTERLY WINDS MAY REACH 15-20 MPH
ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 96 (SOUTHERN GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES) FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (~20-22Z), WHEN AND WHERE
MINIMUM RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT ~20-25%. WARMER
TEMPERATURES, DRIER CONDITIONS AND BREEZIER W WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS AND THE TX-OK PANHANDLES. NO
APPRECIABLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE GOODLAND CWA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE MID PART OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO START OUT
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. RIGHT NOW THOUGH, THEY ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO BRING IN SOME MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH
WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND REMAIN FORECAST TO SEE A STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. AS THE PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM
THE DAY MENTIONED, GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
WHAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD LOOK LIKE AND WHERE IT WILL PROGRESS.
IN MOST CASES, THE TROUGH SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS,
MORE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION, WITH RAIN AS THE MORE LIKELY TYPE WITH SOME SNOW
MAYBE MIXING IN. THE ISSUE IS THE TIMING. THE FASTER SOLUTIONS
WOULD LIKELY MOVE THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND LEAD TO
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER SYSTEMS WOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW WITH A LATE PASSAGE MORE OVER THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS A MIX OF THE TWO WHILE
FAVORING THE SLOWER BASED ON ENSEMBLE SPREADS. WHILE THE RECENT
CONSISTENCY HAS HELPED, STILL GOING TO BE WATCHING FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK OR SHAPE OF THE TROUGH IN THE COMING DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
SCENARIO, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA AS WELL. MOST CASES KEEP WIND
GUSTS BELOW 50 MPH, BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTING AT A HIGH WIND
DAY(S). CURRENTLY THE CHANCE FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 10-15%, WHETHER WIND, SNOW, OR BOTH.
THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE COLD TREND AS ANOTHER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE LIKELY TO
LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES, STRONGER WINDS, AND MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE INTENSITY IS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EARLIER TROUGH. SO LOOK FOR MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000 FT AGL. S TO SW
WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE W A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE (~15Z). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS A BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGH
STALLS OVER THE REGION. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, ALBEIT WITH A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC NW WIND GUSTS UP TO ~12-17 KNOTS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000 FT AGL. S TO SW
WINDS AT 7-13 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW OR NW DURING THE MID-
LATE MORNING (~15-18Z). WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGH STALLS OVER THE REGION,
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT.. DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT ASSOC/W
MODEST VERTICAL MIXING MAY ALLOW OCCASIONAL/SPORADIC NW WINDS AT
10-20 KNOTS. LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. FOR
REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGHS IN EARLY JANUARY ARE 41-43F.
===============================
RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 04
===============================
HILL CITY............72 IN 2001
BURLINGTON...........71 IN 1987
GOODLAND.............70 IN 2001
MCCOOK...............70 IN 1956
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...VINCENT
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