541
FXUS63 KGLD 041940
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1240 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY.
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MAYBE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE THE AREA IS CURRENTLY VOID OF ANY PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LEADING TO WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AND HAVE BEEN UNDER SOME CLOUD
COVER A LITTLE LONGER THAN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. DUE THE LACK OF CLOUDS, DO THINK THAT MIXING WILL BE A
LITTLE DEEPER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED WHICH HAS LED ME
INCREASE WIND GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DO THINK HOWEVER THAT THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE MAINLY SPORADIC
IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WHERE SOME POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT. ANY WIND POTENTIAL FOR
TODAY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FALL OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH AND THE WIND FIELD IN WHICH THE WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN
FROM WANES LEADING TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. RAP AND NAM CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS BOTH SHOW AN
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
WHICH LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
WHICH DOES LEAD TO VALIDITY IN CLOUD COVER FORMING. HAVE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS ARE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MIXING HEIGHTS OF 4000-5000
FEET WHICH WOULD MIX INTO A 20-30 KNOT JET RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING DOWN OF SOME 25-30 MPH WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST ONE HOUR OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IS AROUND 50-60%, BUT FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS
TUESDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE FORM NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN BE ON THE TABLE AS A STRONGER JET
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH AT THIS TIME. RAP AND NAM DOES TRY TO FORM A LAYER OF
CLOUDS NEAR THE 700MB LEVEL WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER OR NOT HUMIDITY VALUES CAN FALL FURTHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MORE OF THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
AS HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE MID TEENS AGAIN AS OUR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS DAY
HOWEVER IS IN A TRANSITION STAGE SO CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNALS FOR ANY WINDS TO SUGGEST THAT FIRE WEATHER WOULD BE OF
CONCERN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE MID PART OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO START OUT
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. WITH SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW
FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA, THERE COULD BE A FEW SHORTWAVES
THAT MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. RIGHT NOW THOUGH, THEY ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO BRING IN SOME MID TO HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH
WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND REMAIN FORECAST TO SEE A STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. AS THE PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM
THE DAY MENTIONED, GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
WHAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD LOOK LIKE AND WHERE IT WILL PROGRESS.
IN MOST CASES, THE TROUGH SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH THIS,
MORE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME
PRECIPITATION, WITH RAIN AS THE MORE LIKELY TYPE WITH SOME SNOW
MAYBE MIXING IN. THE ISSUE IS THE TIMING. THE FASTER SOLUTIONS
WOULD LIKELY MOVE THE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND LEAD TO
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE SLOWER SYSTEMS WOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW WITH A LATE PASSAGE MORE OVER THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS A MIX OF THE TWO WHILE
FAVORING THE SLOWER BASED ON ENSEMBLE SPREADS. WHILE THE RECENT
CONSISTENCY HAS HELPED, STILL GOING TO BE WATCHING FOR CHANGE IN
TRACK OR SHAPE OF THE TROUGH IN THE COMING DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
SCENARIO, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING SOME COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND STRONGER WINDS TO THE AREA AS WELL. MOST CASES KEEP WIND
GUSTS BELOW 50 MPH, BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTING AT A HIGH WIND
DAY(S). CURRENTLY THE CHANCE FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 10-15%, WHETHER WIND, SNOW, OR BOTH.
THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THE COLD TREND AS ANOTHER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH. WHILE LIKELY TO
LEAD TO COLDER TEMPERATURES, STRONGER WINDS, AND MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE INTENSITY IS IN QUESTION DUE TO THE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE EARLIER TROUGH. SO LOOK FOR MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME IMPACTFUL WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR EACH TERMINAL FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON WINDS AND WIND DIRECTIONS FOR
EACH TERMINAL. VERY SHALLOW MIXING IS LEADING TO A CONCERN
STILL FOR MCK OF LLWS AT LEAST THROUGH 20Z VIA FORECAST
SOUNDINGS BEFORE ENOUGH MIXING SHOULD OCCUR TO LESSEN THAT RISK.
FOR GLD A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW FOR WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND 19Z BEFORE BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT
AROUND 21Z. WINDS FOR EACH TERMINAL ARE FORECAST TO VARY IN
DIRECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. FOR
REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGHS IN EARLY JANUARY ARE 41-43F.
===============================
RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 04
===============================
HILL CITY............72 IN 2001
BURLINGTON...........71 IN 1987
GOODLAND.............70 IN 2001
MCCOOK...............70 IN 1956
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
CLIMATE...VINCENT
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