885
FXUS63 KGLD 042307
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
407 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A BREEZY WINTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS AND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
MAY LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE THE AREA IS CURRENTLY VOID OF ANY PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LEADING TO WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST WHERE
DEW POINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AND HAVE BEEN UNDER SOME CLOUD
COVER A LITTLE LONGER THAN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING. DUE THE LACK OF CLOUDS, DO THINK THAT MIXING WILL BE A
LITTLE DEEPER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED WHICH HAS LED ME
INCREASE WIND GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DO THINK HOWEVER THAT THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE MAINLY SPORADIC
IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WHERE SOME POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT. ANY WIND POTENTIAL FOR
TODAY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FALL OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH AND THE WIND FIELD IN WHICH THE WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN
FROM WANES LEADING TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE MONDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. RAP AND NAM CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS BOTH SHOW AN
INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
WHICH LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMA
WHICH DOES LEAD TO VALIDITY IN CLOUD COVER FORMING. HAVE
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE
FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL-CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS ARE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MIXING HEIGHTS OF 4000-5000
FEET WHICH WOULD MIX INTO A 20-30 KNOT JET RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING DOWN OF SOME 25-30 MPH WIND GUSTS.
CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST ONE HOUR OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IS AROUND 50-60%, BUT FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS
TUESDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE FORM NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN BE ON THE TABLE AS A STRONGER JET
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH AT THIS TIME. RAP AND NAM DOES TRY TO FORM A LAYER OF
CLOUDS NEAR THE 700MB LEVEL WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER OR NOT HUMIDITY VALUES CAN FALL FURTHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MORE OF THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
AS HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE MID TEENS AGAIN AS OUR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS DAY
HOWEVER IS IN A TRANSITION STAGE SO CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNALS FOR ANY WINDS TO SUGGEST THAT FIRE WEATHER WOULD BE OF
CONCERN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT, WE HAVE A WINTER SYSTEM MOVING IN THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LIKELY SOME WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR PRECIPITATION IS 0-15Z
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW 2 INCHES, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE'LL START OFF THE LONG TERM THURSDAY MORNING WITH A HEFTY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY IN
THE MORNING THURSDAY. GEFS IS SHOWING A BIT MORE OF A SPREAD
REGARDING THE NORTH/SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM VERSUS 24
HOURS AGO. IF THE NORTHERN ROUTE IS TAKEN, AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THIS
WOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE IN, ASSISTING IN LATER PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER, A MORE SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL PATH IS MORE LIKELY. THIS WOULD
PUT THE LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA OR SOUTH OF THE CWA,
LEADING TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALL DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
EITHER WAY, DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THE LOW LEVEL LOW WILL PULL IN
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT GFS AND ECMWF CROSS-SECTIONS,
STARTING AT 12Z THURSDAY, THE COLUMN WILL BE SATURATED ABOVE 700 MB,
WITH THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING BY 21-03Z THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY THURSDAY IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH POPS INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS AS THE 500 MB LOW, WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE
VORTICITY, MOVES OVER THE CWA. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE THAT THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN DRY, OR AS THE 500 MB MOVES OVER THE CWA, THE MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE DRIES OUT, WHICH WOULD LIMIT, IF NOT ELIMINATE, OUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. AS IT STANDS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE 0-15Z FRIDAY, EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND 12-
15Z.
MUCH LIKE OUR SNOW SQUALL SYSTEM A FEW WEEKS AGO, WE ARE SEEING SOME
SIGNS OF WEAK INSTABILITY. GFS IS SHOWING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE WITH -5 TO -12 MICROBARS OF OMEGA IN THE HEART OF
THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TIMING.
P-TYPE IS A BIT OF A FICKLE ASPECT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLUMN
BEING SATURATED, AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEING WELL WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SNOW WILL BE FORMED ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE,
THE 0C WETBULB ISOTHERM FLOATS AROUND THE SURFACE. THIS LEADS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR. RAIN AND SNOW MIX
LOOKS THE MOST LIKELY SO FAR, BUT SLEET CANNOT BE RULED OUT;
FREEZING RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
NOTABLE POTENTIAL OF REFREEZE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO BLACK
ICE FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ANOTHER CONCERN. THURSDAY, AS THE LOW
LEVEL FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THERE'S NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
BUT WE COULD STILL GUST UP AROUND 25 KTS, MAINLY IN EASTERN
COLORADO. FRIDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE WINDIER DAY AS THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 35-40
KTS ARE EXPECTED AND GUSTS UP TO 45-50 KTS HAVE A 10% CHANCE OF
OCCURRING. WITH THE WINDS, THERE ARE SOME COMPOUNDING HAZARDS THAT
NEED TO BE ADDRESSED. BLOWING SNOW FRIDAY MORNING HAS A ~20% CHANCE
OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE. IF PRECIPITATION DOES
NOT OCCUR, THERE IS A 5% CHANCE PATCHY BLOWING DUST DECREASES AIR
QUALITY AND A 2% CHANCE VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO BELOW 3 MILES.
ADDITIONALLY, IF THE STRONG WINDS OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
ARE DROPPING BELOW FREEZING, THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE A
REFREEZE/BLACK ICE POTENTIAL AS THE WIND WILL EVAPORATE LINGERING
LIQUID WATER ON SURFACES.
THERE IS A 5% CHANCE WE SEE NO PRECIPITATION AND KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED TO LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY HOVER
AROUND 30, HOWEVER WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MORE PROLONGED CAA,
SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL TO AROUND 20. FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES
HEAVILY DEPEND ON IF THE PRECIPITATION AND THE CLOUD COVER IS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDAY. IF IT IS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STUNTED IN THE 30S. IF THE SKY CLEARS OUT, THE NBM/NDFD WILL BE
CLOSER TO ACCURATE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP WITH SUNDAY
WARMING TO AROUND 50. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW END FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20%. THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE A
MAJOR FEATURE SUNDAY TO LEAD TO STRONG WINDS, WHICH CAPS THE FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. COULD SEE SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS AT BOTH SITES BETWEEN 19-22Z
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. FOR
REFERENCE, AVERAGE HIGHS IN EARLY JANUARY ARE 41-43F.
===============================
RECORD HIGHS FOR JANUARY 04
===============================
HILL CITY............72 IN 2001
BURLINGTON...........71 IN 1987
GOODLAND.............70 IN 2001
MCCOOK...............70 IN 1956
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...VINCENT
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