207
FXUS63 KGLD 050512
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1012 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, A BREEZY WINTER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS AND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
MAY LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE THE AREA IS CURRENTLY VOID OF ANY PRESSURE GRADIENTS
LEADING TO WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW.
TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EAST WHERE DEW
POINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER AND HAVE BEEN UNDER SOME CLOUD COVER
A LITTLE LONGER THAN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
DUE THE LACK OF CLOUDS, DO THINK THAT MIXING WILL BE A LITTLE
DEEPER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED WHICH HAS LED ME
INCREASE WIND GUSTS MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DO THINK HOWEVER THAT THESE WIND GUSTS WILL BE MAINLY SPORADIC
IN NATURE AND CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WHERE SOME POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT. ANY WIND POTENTIAL FOR
TODAY IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FALL OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH AND THE WIND FIELD IN WHICH THE WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN
FROM WANES LEADING TO WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. RAP AND NAM CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS
BOTH SHOW AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME 500MB
VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH DOES LEAD TO VALIDITY IN CLOUD COVER
FORMING. HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY SOME TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S ARE FORECAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY CRITICAL-CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WHERE
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ARE IN PLACE ALONG WITH MIXING HEIGHTS OF
4000-5000 FEET WHICH WOULD MIX INTO A 20-30 KNOT JET RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING DOWN OF SOME 25-30 MPH WIND
GUSTS. CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST ONE HOUR OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IS AROUND 50-60%, BUT FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS
TUESDAY, THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE FORM NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATUS ACROSS NORTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN BE ON THE TABLE AS A STRONGER JET
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH AT THIS TIME. RAP AND NAM DOES TRY TO FORM A LAYER OF
CLOUDS NEAR THE 700MB LEVEL WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER OR NOT HUMIDITY VALUES CAN FALL FURTHER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. MORE OF THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL
AS HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE MID TEENS AGAIN AS OUR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS DAY
HOWEVER IS IN A TRANSITION STAGE SO CURRENTLY NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNALS FOR ANY WINDS TO SUGGEST THAT FIRE WEATHER WOULD BE OF
CONCERN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT, WE HAVE A WINTER SYSTEM MOVING IN
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS 0-15Z THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 2 INCHES, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE'LL START OFF THE LONG TERM THURSDAY MORNING WITH A HEFTY MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE MORNING THURSDAY. GEFS IS SHOWING A BIT
MORE OF A SPREAD REGARDING THE NORTH/SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. IF THE NORTHERN ROUTE IS
TAKEN, AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOUTHERLY
WINDS, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE
IN, ASSISTING IN LATER PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, A MORE SOUTHERN
OR CENTRAL PATH IS MORE LIKELY. THIS WOULD PUT THE LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA OR SOUTH OF THE CWA, LEADING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALL DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S.
EITHER WAY, DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THE LOW LEVEL LOW WILL
PULL IN A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT GFS AND ECMWF
CROSS-SECTIONS, STARTING AT 12Z THURSDAY, THE COLUMN WILL BE
SATURATED ABOVE 700 MB, WITH THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING BY
21-03Z THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY IN THE
WESTERN CWA WITH POPS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS
AS THE 500 MB LOW, WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE VORTICITY, MOVES OVER
THE CWA. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE THAT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
DRY, OR AS THE 500 MB MOVES OVER THE CWA, THE MID- LEVEL
MOISTURE DRIES OUT, WHICH WOULD LIMIT, IF NOT ELIMINATE, OUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. AS IT STANDS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE 0-15Z FRIDAY, EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND
12- 15Z.
MUCH LIKE OUR SNOW SQUALL SYSTEM A FEW WEEKS AGO, WE ARE SEEING
SOME SIGNS OF WEAK INSTABILITY. GFS IS SHOWING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE WITH -5 TO -12 MICROBARS OF OMEGA IN
THE HEART OF THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TIMING.
P-TYPE IS A BIT OF A FICKLE ASPECT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLUMN
BEING SATURATED, AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEING WELL WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SNOW WILL BE FORMED ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE, THE 0C WETBULB ISOTHERM FLOATS AROUND THE SURFACE. THIS
LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
RAIN AND SNOW MIX LOOKS THE MOST LIKELY SO FAR, BUT SLEET CANNOT
BE RULED OUT; FREEZING RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A NOTABLE POTENTIAL OF REFREEZE OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO BLACK ICE FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ANOTHER CONCERN. THURSDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THERE'S NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, BUT WE COULD STILL GUST UP AROUND 25 KTS, MAINLY IN
EASTERN COLORADO. FRIDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE WINDIER DAY AS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND GUSTS UP TO 45-50 KTS HAVE A
10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING. WITH THE WINDS, THERE ARE SOME
COMPOUNDING HAZARDS THAT NEED TO BE ADDRESSED. BLOWING SNOW
FRIDAY MORNING HAS A ~20% CHANCE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS
THAN A MILE. IF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR, THERE IS A 5%
CHANCE PATCHY BLOWING DUST DECREASES AIR QUALITY AND A 2% CHANCE
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO BELOW 3 MILES. ADDITIONALLY, IF THE
STRONG WINDS OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING, THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE A REFREEZE/BLACK ICE
POTENTIAL AS THE WIND WILL EVAPORATE LINGERING LIQUID WATER ON
SURFACES.
THERE IS A 5% CHANCE WE SEE NO PRECIPITATION AND KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY
HOVER AROUND 30, HOWEVER WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MORE
PROLONGED CAA, SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL TO AROUND 20.
FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES HEAVILY DEPEND ON IF THE PRECIPITATION AND
THE CLOUD COVER IS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDAY. IF IT IS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED IN THE 30S. IF THE SKY CLEARS OUT,
THE NBM/NDFD WILL BE CLOSER TO ACCURATE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP WITH SUNDAY
WARMING TO AROUND 50. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW END FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20%. THERE DOESN'T
SEEM TO BE A MAJOR FEATURE SUNDAY TO LEAD TO STRONG WINDS, WHICH
CAPS THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS, WITH CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000
FT AGL. LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW
TO NW AT 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.. POSSIBLY BECOMING
VARIABLE, AT TIMES, DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 04, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (FOR THE DATE)
WERE OBSERVED AT BURLINGTON, GOODLAND, MCCOOK AND HILL CITY. NEW
RECORDS ARE LISTED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE (IN FAHRENHEIT):
==========================================
LOCATION NEW RECORD PRIOR RECORD
==========================================
GOODLAND........76 IN 2026 (70 IN 2001)
MCCOOK..........74 IN 2026 (70 IN 1956)
HILL CITY.......73 IN 2026 (72 IN 2001)
BURLINGTON......73 IN 2026 (71 IN 1987)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...VINCENT
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