967
FXUS63 KGLD 050849
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
149 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF, LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION NEAR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST. MODEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY (AT 06Z) LOCATED OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROGRESS ENE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS
(THIS MORNING) THEN ENE-E ACROSS NEBRASKA (THIS AFTERNOON) AND
IOWA (TONIGHT). AN ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH (OR WEAK/BROAD LEE
CYCLONE) OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS (TODAY) WILL TRACK
EASTWARD TO IOWA (THIS EVENING) AND ILLINOIS (TONIGHT). CURRENT
AND RECENT (00-06Z) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ~20 KNOT NW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD, EASTWARD
ADVANCING 850 MB TROUGH MAY FOSTER A MODEST (15-20 MPH) NNW TO
NW BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY-MID AFTERNOON..
WEAKENING TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS
5-10F COOLER THAN SUNDAY, IN THE LOWER TO MID 60'S.. AND
OVERNIGHT (TUE MORNING) LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20'S (EASTERN
CO) TO MID 30'S (EAST OF HWY 83).
FIRE WEATHER (TODAY): POTENTIAL FOR ~15-20 MPH NW WINDS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY-MID AFTERNOON (DEPENDING ON VERTICAL
MIXING, AMONG OTHER FACTORS). LOW CONFIDENCE THAT OCCASIONAL
GUSTS WOULD EXCEED 20-25 MPH. MINIMUM RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM-OUT AROUND 15-30%, LOWEST IN EASTERN CO AND GREELEY-
WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS MARGINAL (LOW END
OF THE SPECTRUM).
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NW-WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
DURING THE DAY.. AS A MODEST LEE TROUGH SUPPLANTS A SURFACE TO
850 MB RIDGE (LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENTLY DEPARTED
SURFACE TO 850 MB TROUGH). EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FIRE WEATHER (TUESDAY): POTENTIAL FOR NW TO WSW WINDS AT 15-25
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. MINIMUM RH
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT AROUND 15-25%, LOWEST WEST
AND SOUTH OF GOODLAND WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL (LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM), ALBEIT SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
TODAY/MONDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT, WE HAVE A WINTER SYSTEM MOVING IN
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LIKELY
SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR
PRECIPITATION IS 0-15Z THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 2 INCHES, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WE'LL START OFF THE LONG TERM THURSDAY MORNING WITH A HEFTY MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NEAR THE
SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE FORMING IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES EARLY IN THE MORNING THURSDAY. GEFS IS SHOWING A BIT
MORE OF A SPREAD REGARDING THE NORTH/SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THIS
ENTIRE SYSTEM VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. IF THE NORTHERN ROUTE IS
TAKEN, AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE SOUTHERLY
WINDS, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WOULD BRING MORE MOISTURE
IN, ASSISTING IN LATER PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, A MORE SOUTHERN
OR CENTRAL PATH IS MORE LIKELY. THIS WOULD PUT THE LOW SOMEWHERE
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA OR SOUTH OF THE CWA, LEADING TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALL DAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S.
EITHER WAY, DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THE LOW LEVEL LOW WILL
PULL IN A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOOKING AT GFS AND ECMWF
CROSS-SECTIONS, STARTING AT 12Z THURSDAY, THE COLUMN WILL BE
SATURATED ABOVE 700 MB, WITH THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING BY
21-03Z THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY IN THE
WESTERN CWA WITH POPS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING HOURS
AS THE 500 MB LOW, WITH MORE AGGRESSIVE VORTICITY, MOVES OVER
THE CWA. THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE THAT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
DRY, OR AS THE 500 MB MOVES OVER THE CWA, THE MID- LEVEL
MOISTURE DRIES OUT, WHICH WOULD LIMIT, IF NOT ELIMINATE, OUR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. AS IT STANDS, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE 0-15Z FRIDAY, EXITING TO THE EAST AROUND
12- 15Z.
MUCH LIKE OUR SNOW SQUALL SYSTEM A FEW WEEKS AGO, WE ARE SEEING
SOME SIGNS OF WEAK INSTABILITY. GFS IS SHOWING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE WITH -5 TO -12 MICROBARS OF OMEGA IN
THE HEART OF THE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TIMING.
P-TYPE IS A BIT OF A FICKLE ASPECT. WITH THE BULK OF THE COLUMN
BEING SATURATED, AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT BEING WELL WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SNOW WILL BE FORMED ALOFT. AT THE
SURFACE, THE 0C WETBULB ISOTHERM FLOATS AROUND THE SURFACE. THIS
LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR.
RAIN AND SNOW MIX LOOKS THE MOST LIKELY SO FAR, BUT SLEET CANNOT
BE RULED OUT; FREEZING RAIN SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A NOTABLE POTENTIAL OF REFREEZE OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO BLACK ICE FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ANOTHER CONCERN. THURSDAY, AS THE
LOW LEVEL FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THERE'S NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, BUT WE COULD STILL GUST UP AROUND 25 KTS, MAINLY IN
EASTERN COLORADO. FRIDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE WINDIER DAY AS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS ARE EXPECTED AND GUSTS UP TO 45-50 KTS HAVE A
10% CHANCE OF OCCURRING. WITH THE WINDS, THERE ARE SOME
COMPOUNDING HAZARDS THAT NEED TO BE ADDRESSED. BLOWING SNOW
FRIDAY MORNING HAS A ~20% CHANCE OF REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS
THAN A MILE. IF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT OCCUR, THERE IS A 5%
CHANCE PATCHY BLOWING DUST DECREASES AIR QUALITY AND A 2% CHANCE
VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO BELOW 3 MILES. ADDITIONALLY, IF THE
STRONG WINDS OCCUR OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING, THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE A REFREEZE/BLACK ICE
POTENTIAL AS THE WIND WILL EVAPORATE LINGERING LIQUID WATER ON
SURFACES.
THERE IS A 5% CHANCE WE SEE NO PRECIPITATION AND KEEP MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY IN THE EASTERN CWA WILL LIKELY
HOVER AROUND 30, HOWEVER WESTERN LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MORE
PROLONGED CAA, SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY COOL TO AROUND 20.
FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES HEAVILY DEPEND ON IF THE PRECIPITATION AND
THE CLOUD COVER IS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDAY. IF IT IS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUNTED IN THE 30S. IF THE SKY CLEARS OUT,
THE NBM/NDFD WILL BE CLOSER TO ACCURATE.
OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM UP WITH SUNDAY
WARMING TO AROUND 50. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW END FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20%. THERE DOESN'T
SEEM TO BE A MAJOR FEATURE SUNDAY TO LEAD TO STRONG WINDS, WHICH
CAPS THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS, WITH CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000
FT AGL. LIGHT/VARIABLE OR SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW
TO NW AT 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.. POSSIBLY BECOMING
VARIABLE, AT TIMES, DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 04, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (FOR THE DATE)
WERE OBSERVED AT BURLINGTON, GOODLAND, MCCOOK AND HILL CITY. NEW
RECORDS ARE LISTED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE (IN FAHRENHEIT):
==========================================
LOCATION NEW RECORD PRIOR RECORD
==========================================
GOODLAND........76 IN 2026 (70 IN 2001)
MCCOOK..........74 IN 2026 (70 IN 1956)
HILL CITY.......73 IN 2026 (72 IN 2001)
BURLINGTON......73 IN 2026 (71 IN 1987)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...VINCENT
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