651
FXUS63 KGLD 051137
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
437 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING BREEZY WINDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 147 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST. MODEST SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY (AT 06Z) LOCATED OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL PROGRESS ENE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS
(THIS MORNING) THEN ENE-E ACROSS NEBRASKA (THIS AFTERNOON) AND
IOWA (TONIGHT). AN ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH (OR WEAK/BROAD LEE
CYCLONE) OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS (TODAY) WILL TRACK
EASTWARD TO IOWA (THIS EVENING) AND ILLINOIS (TONIGHT). CURRENT
AND RECENT (00-06Z) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ~20 KNOT NW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD, EASTWARD
ADVANCING 850 MB TROUGH MAY FOSTER A MODEST (15-20 MPH) NNW TO
NW BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY-MID AFTERNOON..
WEAKENING TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS
5-10F COOLER THAN SUNDAY, IN THE LOWER TO MID 60'S.. AND
OVERNIGHT (TUE MORNING) LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20'S (EASTERN
CO) TO MID 30'S (EAST OF HWY 83).
FIRE WEATHER (TODAY): POTENTIAL FOR ~15-20 MPH NW WINDS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY-MID AFTERNOON (DEPENDING ON VERTICAL
MIXING, AMONG OTHER FACTORS). LOW CONFIDENCE THAT OCCASIONAL
GUSTS WOULD EXCEED 20-25 MPH. MINIMUM RH READINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM-OUT AROUND 15-30%, LOWEST IN EASTERN CO AND GREELEY-
WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS MARGINAL (LOW END
OF THE SPECTRUM).
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NW-WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE W-SW
DURING THE DAY.. AS A MODEST LEE TROUGH SUPPLANTS A SURFACE TO
850 MB RIDGE (LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENTLY DEPARTED
SURFACE TO 850 MB TROUGH). EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ROUGHLY SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALBEIT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
FIRE WEATHER (TUESDAY): POTENTIAL FOR NW TO WSW WINDS AT 15-25
MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-70. MINIMUM RH
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM-OUT AROUND 15-25%, LOWEST WEST
AND SOUTH OF GOODLAND WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN APPEARS TO BE
MARGINAL (LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM), ALBEIT SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
TODAY/MONDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL TRANSITION TO AN
OPEN WAVE IS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN TWO ROUNDS,
THE FIRST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PHASE MAY INITIALLY BE
RAIN FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
(EAST OF HIGHWAY 25), BUT MAINLY SNOW IN WESTERN AREAS
(COLORADO), WITH A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN THURSDAY NIGHT PHASE WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW, PROBABLY BY 12Z.
THE SECOND, AND MAIN, SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW. GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGE SHOWS SNOW AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE INCH, GENERALLY HIGHEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WHILE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AVERAGE SHOWS WIDESPREAD 2-3" ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT GENERALLY HIGHEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS WELL. BOTH
ENSEMBLES SHOW INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY DURING THE
PERIOD OF GREATEST SNOWFALL, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SO,
IF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS VERIFY WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL ON FRIDAY. IT IS NOT A PARTICULARLY
COLD SYSTEM, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S, PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER 40S, SO THAT WILL BE WORKING AGAINST ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW
APPEARS TO WIND DOWN BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS DOES SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ON SATURDAY WITH A ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IMPACTFUL AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000 FT AGL. WNW TO NW
WINDS AT ~10-15 KNOTS MAY SPORADICALLY GUST UP TO ~20-22 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET (~23-03Z).. AFTER
WHICH ~8-13 KNOT WNW TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000 FT AGL. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND SPORADICALLY/INTERMITTENTLY GUST UP TO
~25 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE WNW OR W
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN LIGHT AT ~8-13 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
ON SUNDAY JANUARY 04, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (FOR THE DATE)
WERE OBSERVED AT BURLINGTON, GOODLAND, MCCOOK AND HILL CITY. NEW
RECORDS ARE LISTED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE (IN FAHRENHEIT):
==========================================
LOCATION NEW RECORD PRIOR RECORD
==========================================
GOODLAND........76 IN 2026 (70 IN 2001)
MCCOOK..........74 IN 2026 (70 IN 1956)
HILL CITY.......73 IN 2026 (72 IN 2001)
BURLINGTON......73 IN 2026 (71 IN 1987)
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLIMATE...VINCENT
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