173
FXUS63 KGLD 052044
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
144 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TODAY.
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL TUESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING BREEZY WINDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
WEST-SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR THE SURFACE A
TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FOR A FEW
HOURS STARTING AROUND 19Z AS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S IS
FORECAST TO LEAD TO HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 15%
ESPECIALLY ACROSS YUMA COUNTY. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN.
ANOTHER WAVE OFF OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING AS WELL LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SPRINKLES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER AS THE 15Z RAP
SHOWS ACTUALLY FAIRLY STRONG OMEGA AROUND 15 MICROBARS
ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMA, BUT A DRY LAYER FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 650MB SEVERELY RAISES MY DOUBTS THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. BEHIND THIS WITH THE WAVE
MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BREEZY OVERNIGHT
GUSTING 20-30 MPH DESPITE VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE WIND FIELD
INCREASES. DUE TO THIS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES WHERE THE WIND IS
FORECASTED TO WANE SOONER.
TUESDAY, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A PERIOD OF STRATUS OR PATCHY
FOG MAY OCCUR ACROSS RED WILLOW, HITCHCOCK, DECATUR COUNTY AREAS
TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS WITH A SUBTLE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT IF THE BREEZY
WINDS CONTINUE THAT IT WON'T COME TO FRUITION SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THAT POTENTIAL. A SHORTWAVE OFF OF THE CHEYENNE
RIDGE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IS FORECAST
TO LEAD TO SOME BREEZY WINDS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST
TO OCCUR WITH WIND GUSTS GUST AROUND 30 MPH. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL THAT IF MIXING CAN BE A LITTLE DEEP THEN WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 MPH CAN OCCUR, CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS AROUND 10-15%.
THE BIGGEST CONCERN I HAVE WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS THE
DURATION OF ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS IF THEY EVEN OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE IN ONE HOURS IS AROUND 30-40% BUT CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR
MORE TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT IS ONLY AROUND 10%.
WEDNESDAY, CONTINUES TO BE A MORE TRANQUIL DAY AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING
TROUGHS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S REMAIN FORECAST.
WINDS FOR THE DAY HOWEVER APPEAR TO BE REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA DUE TO A LACK OF ANY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE AREA. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT
WHICH WILL BE THE START OF THE TRANSITION TO OUR MORE ACTIVE LATTER
WEEK PATTERN WHICH WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT MAY NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON SOME FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPING AS SOME MOISTURE
RETURN DOES LOOK TO OCCUR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL TRANSITION TO AN
OPEN WAVE IS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS.
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN TWO ROUNDS,
THE FIRST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PHASE MAY INITIALLY BE
RAIN FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
(EAST OF HIGHWAY 25), BUT MAINLY SNOW IN WESTERN AREAS
(COLORADO), WITH A TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN. AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN THURSDAY NIGHT PHASE WILL TURN TO ALL SNOW, PROBABLY BY 12Z.
THE SECOND, AND MAIN, SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW. GFS ENSEMBLE AVERAGE SHOWS SNOW AMOUNTS OF LESS
THAN ONE INCH, GENERALLY HIGHEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WHILE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE AVERAGE SHOWS WIDESPREAD 2-3" ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT GENERALLY HIGHEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AS WELL. BOTH
ENSEMBLES SHOW INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY DURING THE
PERIOD OF GREATEST SNOWFALL, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. SO,
IF HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS VERIFY WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL ON FRIDAY. IT IS NOT A PARTICULARLY
COLD SYSTEM, HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S, PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER 40S, SO THAT WILL BE WORKING AGAINST ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW
APPEARS TO WIND DOWN BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS DOES SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES ON SATURDAY WITH A ANOTHER WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW, BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE IMPACTFUL AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1011 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE BRINGING CEILINGS DOWN SOME BUT
STILL REMAINING VFR. AS THIS OCCURS WE COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES
OR A ROGUE SHOWER BUT WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE VERY
SKEPTICAL IF THEY WILL REACH THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE ALSO
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS. IF MIXING
CAN NOT OCCUR THEN LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR EACH TERMINAL
LONGER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH HAS
INCREASED TO AROUND 30-40%. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WHICH TYPICALLY
HANDLES MIXING THE BEST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH OCCURS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5000 FEET ESPECIALLY
ACROSS YUMA, DUNDY, HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW COUNTIES. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON THE DRIER END OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE CURRENT
YIELDING HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID TEENS. DUE TO THIS
CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IN HUMIDITY FALLING WIDESPREAD BELOW 15%
AND FOR MULTIPLE HOURS IS LOW WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEGATING THE
NEED FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. IF THE STRONGER WINDS CAN OCCUR
THEN GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY HIGH RANGE
WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH MULTIPLE HOURS POSSIBLE. AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE PAST MONTH OR TWO.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...TRIGG
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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