043
FXUS63 KGLD 060845
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
145 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- WINTER SYSTEM MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
WEST-SOUTHWEST SYNOPTIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA LEADING
TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR THE
SURFACE A TROUGH IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH IS FORECAST TO
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
REMAIN FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING AROUND 19Z AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
AS LOW AS 15% ESPECIALLY ACROSS YUMA COUNTY. WINDS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BETWEEN 22 AND 23Z AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION SETS IN. ANOTHER WAVE OFF OF THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WELL LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER
AS THE 15Z RAP SHOWS ACTUALLY FAIRLY STRONG OMEGA AROUND 15
MICROBARS ASSOCIATED WITH 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMA, BUT A DRY
LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 650MB SEVERELY RAISES MY DOUBTS
THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. BEHIND THIS WITH
THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BREEZY
OVERNIGHT GUSTING 20-30 MPH DESPITE VERY SHALLOW MIXING AS THE
WIND FIELD INCREASES. DUE TO THIS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES WHERE THE WIND IS
FORECASTED TO WANE SOONER.
TUESDAY, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A PERIOD OF STRATUS OR
PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR ACROSS RED WILLOW, HITCHCOCK, DECATUR
COUNTY AREAS TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS WITH
A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BUT HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT IF THE
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE THAT IT WON'T COME TO FRUITION SO WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT POTENTIAL. A SHORTWAVE OFF OF THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS IS
FORECAST TO LEAD TO SOME BREEZY WINDS FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WHERE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH WIND GUSTS GUST AROUND 30 MPH. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL THAT IF MIXING CAN BE A LITTLE DEEP THEN WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH CAN OCCUR, CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS AROUND
10-15%. THE BIGGEST CONCERN I HAVE WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
THE DURATION OF ANY CRITICAL CONDITIONS IF THEY EVEN OCCUR.
CONFIDENCE IN ONE HOURS IS AROUND 30-40% BUT CONFIDENCE IN 3 OR
MORE TO WARRANT A FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT IS ONLY AROUND 10%.
WEDNESDAY, CONTINUES TO BE A MORE TRANQUIL DAY AHEAD OF THE
UPCOMING TROUGHS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S
REMAIN FORECAST. WINDS FOR THE DAY HOWEVER APPEAR TO BE REMAIN
LIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO A LACK OF ANY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE START OF THE
TRANSITION TO OUR MORE ACTIVE LATTER WEEK PATTERN WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BUT MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SOME FOG OR
STRATUS DEVELOPING AS SOME MOISTURE RETURN DOES LOOK TO OCCUR.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND EJECT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER, AND STRONGER, SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON FRIDAY WHICH IS
MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE FIRST WAVE, MOVING UP FROM
THE SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUGGEST
MOSTLY SNOW ON THURSDAY IN COLORADO AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25, WITH
RAIN OR SNOW EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. HOWEVER, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ANY SNOW WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
ACCUMULATING AND MAY JUST MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. AS
THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES OUT, THE SECOND ONE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY LINGERING LIQUID PRECIPITATION
WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IN THE COLDER AIR. SNOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND WINDS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT.
PEAK TIME FOR IMPACTS WILL BE FRIDAY MORNING, WHERE A
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD OR NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES IF ENOUGH SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE.
MODELS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS, PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
FAVORABLE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GFS ENSEMBLE SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED AND NOW CLOSELY RESEMBLE THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, BOTH IN
THE 2-3" RANGE (10:1 RATIO). HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAS
SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS, FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. AS MENTIONED, WIND WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER
12Z WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, POSSIBLY UP TO 50 MPH AT
TIMES, BEFORE DIMINISHING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT A
PARTICULARLY COLD SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 30S AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET BY COMPARISON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW FLURRIES ON SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY LOBE
ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST, BUT SHOULD NOT
BE IMPACTFUL. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 20. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE MILDER AND NOT AS WINDY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000 FT AGL. NW WINDS
AT ~8-13 KNOTS WILL BACK TO THE W AND INCREASE TO ~13-18 KNOTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FURTHER BACK TO THE
SW AND DECREASE TO ~8-13 KNOTS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET (~23Z TUE).
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CEILINGS CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 18,000 FT AGL. NW TO WNW
WINDS AT ~10-15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW AND
DECREASE TO ~8-13 KNOTS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET (~23Z TUE).
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SOME IN ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. THE CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 30-40%. IF THE GFS VERIFIES WHICH
TYPICALLY HANDLES MIXING THE BEST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OCCURS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5000 FEET
ESPECIALLY ACROSS YUMA, DUNDY, HITCHCOCK AND RED WILLOW
COUNTIES. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE DRIER END OF THE FORECAST
ENVELOPE CURRENT YIELDING HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE MID
TEENS. DUE TO THIS CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IN HUMIDITY FALLING
WIDESPREAD BELOW 15% AND FOR MULTIPLE HOURS IS LOW WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEGATING THE NEED FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH. IF THE
STRONGER WINDS CAN OCCUR THEN GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES
IN THE VERY HIGH RANGE WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH MULTIPLE HOURS
POSSIBLE. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE OVER THE PAST
MONTH OR TWO.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
FIRE WEATHER...TRIGG
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