065
FXUS63 KGLD 062105
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER A
LIMITED PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- WINTER SYSTEM MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 148 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT: NW-WNW LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK TO THE W-SW THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH SUPPLANTS THE LOW- LEVEL
RIDGE PRESENTLY IN PLACE OVER THE TRI-STATE. GFS AND HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
ASSOC/W VERTICAL MIXING MAY FOSTER BREEZY (~15-25 MPH G 30 MPH)
WNW TO NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA (MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36) WHERE ~20-25 KNOT LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT WITHIN A 6-7 KFT DEEP MIXED LAYER. IT
APPEARS THAT 'BREEZINESS' WILL DECREASE WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SHALLOWER MIXING (~4-5 KFT AGL) AND WEAKER (10-15 KNOT) LOW-
LEVEL FLOW THEREIN. EXPECT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ROUGHLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ALBEIT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER AND SOMEWHAT
BREEZIER IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER (TODAY): MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN (LOW END OF
THE SPECTRUM) THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36
WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BREEZY (15-25 MPH G 30 MPH) WNW TO
NW WINDS WILL OVERLAP WITH MINIMUM RH READINGS ~20%.
WED-WED NIGHT: SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALBEIT WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL (SURFACE TO 850 MB) PATTERN AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
FRIDAY, WE CONTINUE TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THE WINTER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) FOR
THIS SYSTEM ARE 40-60% OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA), ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 15-20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. COLORADO
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHER WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS
30-40 KNOTS. SNOW MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING DUE TO HIGHER
TEMPERATURES, BUT BLOWING SNOW IS A CONCERN DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. MODELS ARE SHOWING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
WITH HIGH END SCENARIO BEING 5+ INCHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH OUR AREA RATHER QUICKLY. SNOWFALL WILL WRAP UP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL CALM DOWN BY FRIDAY EVENING.
POPS ARE DOWN TO <10% BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS ARE IN THE
MID 20S AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OUR COLORADO COUNTIES WILL SEE VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE IN
THE MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST FROM 10-15 KNOTS. WIND CHILLS ARE A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL SEE
VALUES <0 AND THE EASTERN PORTION WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD AND VARIABLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD OVER KMCK
AND KGLD. WINDS FOR BOTH TERMINALS SHOULD SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 22-00Z THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL ~15Z WEDNESDAY WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO BE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY OVER KGLD AND WESTERLY OVER KMCK THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS OVER KGLD SHOULD BE LIGHT AT ~5-10 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. RANDOM GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER KGLD THROUGH ~22Z. KMCK SHOULD SEE WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
~23Z BEFORE DECREASING TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. KGLD COULD ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER, MOST LIKELY CIRRUS CLOUDS, CREEP UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FROM AROUND SUNRISE TO THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE WE ARE EXPECTING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
TERMINALS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...KMK/RHOADES
AVIATION...KMK
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