979
FXUS63 KGLD 062340
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
440 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER A
LIMITED PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- WINTER SYSTEM MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
PLEASANT, DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK CUT-OFF TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. FOR TONIGHT, WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA HELPING TO
AMPLIFY THE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD US THE RAP, NAM, GFS, AND
ECMWF ALL HAVE IT BECOMING A CUT- OFF TROUGH INSTEAD. LOOKING AT
12Z GUIDANCE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS, ALL SEEM TO FAVOR
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT ALOFT WILL HELP
MATURE THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO A SURFACE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. THE POSITIONING OF THIS LOW WILL IMPACT THE SNOW
POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING.
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SWEEPS OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SO FAR, THE 850 MB MOISTURE
COULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NORTON TO COLBY TO
TRIBUNE LINE WITHIN THE STRATIFORM/"COMMA-HEAD" REGION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS A NORTHEAST TREK ACROSS
KANSAS FROM ~GARDEN CITY, KS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI-KANSAS-
NEBRASKA BORDER AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, WHICH COULD
LEAVE THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR
RAIN. THIS IS WHERE THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL REALLY MATTER IN
TERMS OF WHETHER WE GET LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA OR NOT. LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM)
RUN IS FAVORING BETTER SNOWFALL (>0.5") OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ALONG
AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25. WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW 40S AT THE GOODLAND OFFICE, IT WILL TAKE A HEAVY
SNOW RATE OR JUST A LOT OF SNOW FALLING WITH THE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SYSTEMS FOR US TO SEE MUCH STICK. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
RECEIVE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW
FREEZING. WITH THE TRANSITION PHASE, THE INITIAL SNOW (EAST-
CENTRAL COLORADO TO KANSAS BORDER AREA) SHOULD SEE MORE OF A WET
SNOW BEFORE WE SEE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DROP TO OUR TYPICAL
~14:1 RATIO (POWDERY SNOW) OVERNIGHT THURSDAY-FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOWFALL COULD FAVOR A TRACE TO 1" ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, MEASURABLE SNOW MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO THE
GROUND TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
FRIDAY, WE CONTINUE TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THE WINTER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) FOR
THIS SYSTEM ARE 40-60% OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA), ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 15-20 KNOTS
AND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. COLORADO
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HIGHER WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS
30-40 KNOTS. SNOW MAY HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING DUE TO HIGHER
TEMPERATURES, BUT BLOWING SNOW IS A CONCERN DURING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. MODELS ARE SHOWING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
WITH HIGH END SCENARIO BEING 5+ INCHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH OUR AREA RATHER QUICKLY. SNOWFALL WILL WRAP UP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL CALM DOWN BY FRIDAY EVENING.
POPS ARE DOWN TO <10% BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS ARE IN THE
MID 20S AND WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OUR COLORADO COUNTIES WILL SEE VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE IN
THE MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST FROM 10-15 KNOTS. WIND CHILLS ARE A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL SEE
VALUES <0 AND THE EASTERN PORTION WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD AND VARIABLE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS AS WESTERLY WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIRMASS PRECLUDES
ANY THREAT FOR FOG OR LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK/RHOADES
AVIATION...JRM
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