753
FXUS63 KGLD 070438
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
938 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY.
- AN UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW, BREEZY
TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 216 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
PLEASANT, DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK CUT-OFF TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. FOR TONIGHT,
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A WEAK
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD US THE
RAP, NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF ALL HAVE IT BECOMING A CUT- OFF TROUGH
INSTEAD. LOOKING AT 12Z GUIDANCE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS,
ALL SEEM TO FAVOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT ALOFT
WILL HELP MATURE THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO A
SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE POSITIONING OF THIS LOW WILL IMPACT THE
SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING.
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE, A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SWEEPS OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SO FAR, THE 850 MB MOISTURE
COULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NORTON TO COLBY TO
TRIBUNE LINE WITHIN THE STRATIFORM/"COMMA-HEAD" REGION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS A NORTHEAST TREK ACROSS
KANSAS FROM ~GARDEN CITY, KS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI-KANSAS-
NEBRASKA BORDER AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, WHICH COULD
LEAVE THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR
RAIN. THIS IS WHERE THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL REALLY MATTER IN
TERMS OF WHETHER WE GET LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA OR NOT. LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM)
RUN IS FAVORING BETTER SNOWFALL (>0.5") OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ALONG
AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25. WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW 40S AT THE GOODLAND OFFICE, IT WILL TAKE A HEAVY
SNOW RATE OR JUST A LOT OF SNOW FALLING WITH THE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SYSTEMS FOR US TO SEE MUCH STICK. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
RECEIVE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW
FREEZING. WITH THE TRANSITION PHASE, THE INITIAL SNOW (EAST-
CENTRAL COLORADO TO KANSAS BORDER AREA) SHOULD SEE MORE OF A WET
SNOW BEFORE WE SEE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DROP TO OUR TYPICAL
~14:1 RATIO (POWDERY SNOW) OVERNIGHT THURSDAY-FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOWFALL COULD FAVOR A TRACE TO 1" ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, MEASURABLE SNOW MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO THE
GROUND TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
FRIDAY, WE CONTINUE TO SEE IMPACTS FROM THE WINTER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
(POPS) FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE 40-60% OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA), ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO SNOW. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST FROM 15-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS FOR THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. COLORADO COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE HIGHER WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS 30-40 KNOTS. SNOW MAY
HAVE A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING DUE TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES, BUT
BLOWING SNOW IS A CONCERN DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. MODELS ARE
SHOWING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE WITH HIGH END
SCENARIO BEING 5+ INCHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH OUR
AREA RATHER QUICKLY. SNOWFALL WILL WRAP UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN BY FRIDAY EVENING. POPS ARE DOWN TO <10%
BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS ARE IN THE MID 20S AND WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OUR
COLORADO COUNTIES WILL SEE VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY. HIGHS ARE
IN THE MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL BE
WEST/NORTHWEST FROM 10-15 KNOTS. WIND CHILLS ARE A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL SEE
VALUES <0 AND THE EASTERN PORTION WILL SEE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
50S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MILD AND VARIABLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 935 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS AT/ABOVE
~15,000 FT AGL) WED EVENING.. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK/RHOADES
AVIATION...VINCENT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page