603
FXUS63 KGLD 070823
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
123 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY.
- AN UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW, BREEZY
TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
PLEASANT, DRY CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A WEAK CUT-OFF TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. FOR TONIGHT,
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES. ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES INTO A WEAK
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST MOVES OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD US THE
RAP, NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF ALL HAVE IT BECOMING A CUT- OFF TROUGH
INSTEAD. LOOKING AT 12Z GUIDANCE FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS,
ALL SEEM TO FAVOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT ALOFT
WILL HELP MATURE THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO A
SURFACE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THE POSITIONING OF THIS LOW WILL IMPACT THE
SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING.
LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE, A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY- THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE LOW SWEEPS OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SO FAR, THE 850 MB MOISTURE
COULD MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NORTON TO COLBY TO
TRIBUNE LINE WITHIN THE STRATIFORM/"COMMA-HEAD" REGION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS A NORTHEAST TREK ACROSS
KANSAS FROM ~GARDEN CITY, KS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI-KANSAS-
NEBRASKA BORDER AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY, WHICH COULD
LEAVE THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR
RAIN. THIS IS WHERE THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL REALLY MATTER IN
TERMS OF WHETHER WE GET LITTLE TO NO RAIN FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA OR NOT. LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM)
RUN IS FAVORING BETTER SNOWFALL (>0.5") OVERNIGHT THURSDAY ALONG
AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25. WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
IN THE LOW 40S AT THE GOODLAND OFFICE, IT WILL TAKE A HEAVY
SNOW RATE OR JUST A LOT OF SNOW FALLING WITH THE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SYSTEMS FOR US TO SEE MUCH STICK. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
RECEIVE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO BELOW
FREEZING. WITH THE TRANSITION PHASE, THE INITIAL SNOW (EAST-
CENTRAL COLORADO TO KANSAS BORDER AREA) SHOULD SEE MORE OF A WET
SNOW BEFORE WE SEE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS DROP TO OUR TYPICAL
~14:1 RATIO (POWDERY SNOW) OVERNIGHT THURSDAY-FRIDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOWFALL COULD FAVOR A TRACE TO 1" ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, MEASURABLE SNOW MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE TO THE
GROUND TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT, THE SECOND ONE WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITH AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH, PERHAPS APPROACHING
ONE INCH IN WESTERN KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO
WITH PALMER DIVIDE ENHANCEMENT. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
WITH THAT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THE MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
EXPECTING 1-2" AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FLAGLER, COLORADO,
TO SHARON SPRINGS AND SCOTT CITY, KANSAS, LINE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING LESS THAN ONE
INCH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
SNOW AREAS, PARTICULARLY IN KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES WHERE
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE,
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW WHERE IT DOES ACCUMULATE. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
QUICKLY ENDING FRIDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
WITH A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST,
BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE IMPACTFUL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 40S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WILL RETURN TO A FAMILIAR PATTERN:
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 935 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS AT/ABOVE
~15,000 FT AGL) WED EVENING.. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
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