886
FXUS63 KGLD 071032
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
332 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY.
- AN UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW,
BREEZY TO STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 APPEAR TO BE MOST AT RISK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
TODAY: EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (MOSTLY SUNNY,
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES), ALBEIT WITH AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL (SURFACE TO 850 MB) PATTERN AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
TONIGHT-THURSDAY: COOLER ON THU, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40'S. A
CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE OF BAJA, CA (AT 07Z THIS MORNING) WILL
DEAMPLIFY INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO (THIS AFTERNOON), THE DESERT SOUTHWEST (THIS
EVENING) AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES (TONIGHT). AN ASSOCIATED LEE
CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND SOUTHWEST KS (ROUGHLY
FROM LAMAR CO EAST TO GARDEN CITY KS) OVERNIGHT, AS THE UPPER
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ON THE E AND NE PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE LOW (MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF HWY 83) SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE
(10-12Z).. THAT THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION (AND GREATEST
AMOUNTS) WILL OCCUR BETWEEN ~12-20Z IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA (HWY 283), IN ASSOC/W STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IN VICINITY OF A SW-TO-NE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD (ROUGHLY) FROM JOHNSON/KJHN TO HILL
CITY/KHLC.. AND THAT PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT THE NWS GOODLAND
COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON (~19-21Z).
WHILE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.. AND SOUTHWARD ADVECTION OF A
DRIER AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH (IN NEBRASKA).. MAY AFFORD SOME
DEGREE OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING, ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
LOCALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30'S IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE/
PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION DURING THE LATE MORNING, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS VIA THE GFS AND HRRR INDICATE THAT THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE-FREEZING (ESP. IN THE LOWEST 1-3 KFT),
STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT AN ENTIRELY SEPARATE, SSW-TO-
NNE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD POTENTIALLY
DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST (AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS)
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST CO, WHERE THERMAL PROFILES ARE
MORE AMENABLE TO SNOW, THOUGH.. POOR MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT (AND WHERE) THIS
MIGHT OCCUR (AS FAR WEST AS THE I-76 CORRIDOR, AS FAR EAST AS
YUMA COUNTY) AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (TRACE TO ~0.10", IF ANY)
INDICATES THAT PREDICTABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MORE
THAN A BRIEF MENTION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
AS INITIAL SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT, THE SECOND ONE WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITH AMOUNTS
THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH, PERHAPS APPROACHING
ONE INCH IN WESTERN KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO
WITH PALMER DIVIDE ENHANCEMENT. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
WITH THAT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW THE MORE IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
EXPECTING 1-2" AMOUNTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FLAGLER, COLORADO,
TO SHARON SPRINGS AND SCOTT CITY, KANSAS, LINE BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SEEING LESS THAN ONE
INCH. SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
SNOW AREAS, PARTICULARLY IN KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE COUNTIES WHERE
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE,
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH ONLY PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW WHERE IT DOES ACCUMULATE. ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
QUICKLY ENDING FRIDAY EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES
WITH A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST,
BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE IMPACTFUL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 40S AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WILL RETURN TO A FAMILIAR PATTERN:
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 935 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES WILL
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER (CIRRUS AT/ABOVE
~15,000 FT AGL) WED EVENING.. NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...VINCENT
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