930
FXUS63 KGLD 222152
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
252 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT MIDDAY SUNDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS DUE TO EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 3-6 INCHES. POCKETS OF SNOW UP TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY CAN EXPECT
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
- 10% CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN U.S. 385
AND 83 LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
THE REST OF THE DAY, MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS, LEADING TO WINDS CHILLS AS
LOW AS -20F. IT'S LIKELY FRIDAY WILL SEE A MIDNIGHT HIGH IN THE MID
TEENS. AN 850 MB HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER NEBRASKA, TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUALLY PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNRISE WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO BE
AROUND -5 TO -15 RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STARTS TONIGHT AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, A LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA LOOKS TO PROVIDE
700 MB SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD PUSH WARM, MOIST AIR
INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE MORNING,
THE 700 MB LAYER LOOKS TO STILL BE DRY. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE EAST PUSHES MOISTURE INTO THE CWA, THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN U.S. 385 AND 83.
FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR, TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO SUPPORT SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS. IN THIS SCENARIO,
A TRACE TO 0.03 INCHES OF ICE WOULD OCCUR. CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO COLD TO SUPPORT DROPLETS, IN WHICH CASE
STRATUS WOULD OCCUR AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL FALL.
SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS 9Z, AND MOST OF THE
CWA WILL SEE SNOW BY 13-15Z. PEAK SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE BETWEEN 21-
6Z. THE EASTERN CWA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, AND ALSO
HAS A 15-20% CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOWBAND FORM. LOOKING AT NAM, 0-6Z
THE COLUMN IS SATURATED, AND NEAR SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE BETWEEN 7.5-9 C/KM, WITH OMEGA AROUND -5. IF A BAND FORMS,
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND 8-10
INCHES.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN KANSAS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 3-6 INCHES, PROMPTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE 1-2.5 INCHES OF
SNOW. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE SYSTEM FAVORING
A NORTHERLY PATH AND SLRS INCREASING (AROUND 1:15-20) DUE TO THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE IS STILL A 30% CHANCE THE SYSTEM TAKES
A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH, WHICH WOULD BASICALLY HALF THESE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO AROUND -5,
LEADING TO WIND CHILLS AROUND -15 TO -25. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE AIR
TEMPERATURES DROP EVEN COLDER, AND PUSH WIND CHILLS IN THE CENTRAL
CWA TO -30, IN WHICH CASE A COLD WEATHER WARNING WOULD NEED TO BE
ISSUED.
SATURDAY, THE MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT BASICALLY STALLS OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 0-10
DEGREES, WHICH MAY STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES TOO WARM. WIND CHILLS
WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 0 DEGREES SATURDAY.
SNOW SHOULD END BY SUNRISE SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS
A 20-30% CHANCE THE SYSTEM SLOWS, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING SUNDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO
AROUND 0 TO -5, PUSHING WIND CHILLS TO AROUND -15, AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
SYNOPTICALLY STARTING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHICH IS SLATED
TO SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCUR SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
FRONT. CROSS SECTIONAL ANALYSIS ON THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS
BOTH SHOW A SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 600MB
FAVORING NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z SUNDAY AND
00Z MONDAY. ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL OUTPUT ON THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND
AN INCH WHILE INTERESTING ENOUGH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DON'T
SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DRIER AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE OVERRUNNING THE BETTER LIFT. WILL INTRODUCE AROUND
10-14% POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA TO ADDRESS
THIS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. BUT WITH THE CONCERN OF THE DRY
AIR UNDERCUTTING THE LIFT WILL REFRAIN FROM GOING ANY HIGHER
CURRENTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK
BEFORE WE MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HOURS
QUICKER (TUESDAY NIGHT)THAN THE GFS (WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ON THIS
BUT SNOW WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD THIS
SIGNAL CONTINUE.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK WITH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW EXPANSE AND DEEP
WILL THE NEW SNOWPACK BE FROM THIS WEEKEND. YOU CAN SEE THIS IN
THE GUIDANCE SPREAD AS WELL WITH AROUND A 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES. IF SNOWPACK IS
PRESENT THEN HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO FREEZING PERHAPS
AS LONG AS MID WEEK. WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY DUE TO THE HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF A SNOWPACK BEING
PRESENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ALSO BE OF CONCERN AS WELL
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS SKIES CLEAR
LEADING TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL WHERE THE
SNOWPACK LIES. CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
A FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE EAST WHICH STILL HAS
INFLUENCE FROM THE COLDEST AIR. SHOULD OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING OCCUR THEN LOW TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FALL ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 952 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AND MOST OF THE NIGHT. STARTING AROUND
12-13Z, STRATUS WILL START MOVING IN. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE STRATUS. BETWEEN 14-18Z, SNOW WILL START MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 11 AM
MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-
042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ FRIDAY TO 11
PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ002>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 11 AM
MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...CA
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