084
FXUS63 KGLD 230523
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1023 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT MIDDAY SUNDAY
FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING
FROM 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS DUE TO EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 3-6 INCHES. POCKETS OF SNOW UP TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY CAN EXPECT
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
- 10% CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN U.S. 385
AND 83 LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
THE REST OF THE DAY, MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS, LEADING TO WINDS CHILLS AS
LOW AS -20F. IT'S LIKELY FRIDAY WILL SEE A MIDNIGHT HIGH IN THE MID
TEENS. AN 850 MB HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER NEBRASKA, TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUALLY PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNRISE WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO BE
AROUND -5 TO -15 RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STARTS TONIGHT AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, A LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA LOOKS TO PROVIDE
700 MB SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD PUSH WARM, MOIST AIR
INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE MORNING,
THE 700 MB LAYER LOOKS TO STILL BE DRY. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE EAST PUSHES MOISTURE INTO THE CWA, THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN U.S. 385 AND 83.
FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR, TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO SUPPORT SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS. IN THIS SCENARIO,
A TRACE TO 0.03 INCHES OF ICE WOULD OCCUR. CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO COLD TO SUPPORT DROPLETS, IN WHICH CASE
STRATUS WOULD OCCUR AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL FALL.
SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS 9Z, AND MOST OF THE
CWA WILL SEE SNOW BY 13-15Z. PEAK SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE BETWEEN 21-
6Z. THE EASTERN CWA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, AND ALSO
HAS A 15-20% CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOWBAND FORM. LOOKING AT NAM, 0-6Z
THE COLUMN IS SATURATED, AND NEAR SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE BETWEEN 7.5-9 C/KM, WITH OMEGA AROUND -5. IF A BAND FORMS,
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND 8-10
INCHES.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN KANSAS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 3-6 INCHES, PROMPTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE 1-2.5 INCHES OF
SNOW. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE SYSTEM FAVORING
A NORTHERLY PATH AND SLRS INCREASING (AROUND 1:15-20) DUE TO THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE IS STILL A 30% CHANCE THE SYSTEM TAKES
A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH, WHICH WOULD BASICALLY HALF THESE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO AROUND -5,
LEADING TO WIND CHILLS AROUND -15 TO -25. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE AIR
TEMPERATURES DROP EVEN COLDER, AND PUSH WIND CHILLS IN THE CENTRAL
CWA TO -30, IN WHICH CASE A COLD WEATHER WARNING WOULD NEED TO BE
ISSUED.
SATURDAY, THE MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT BASICALLY STALLS OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 0-10
DEGREES, WHICH MAY STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES TOO WARM. WIND CHILLS
WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 0 DEGREES SATURDAY.
SNOW SHOULD END BY SUNRISE SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS
A 20-30% CHANCE THE SYSTEM SLOWS, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING SUNDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO
AROUND 0 TO -5, PUSHING WIND CHILLS TO AROUND -15, AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 252 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
SUNDAY REMAINS COLD IN THE WAKE OF OUR WINTER STORM SYSTEM. A TROUGH
DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ARE 10-15% WITH KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES BEING ON THE
HIGHER END. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S AND LOWS
AROUND ZERO. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOWPACK WE GET FROM THE WINTER
STORM, TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE CURRENTLY FORECAST
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ARE STILL
DANGEROUSLY LOW WITH VALUES RANGING FROM -15F TO -20F FOR THE ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOW WE RECEIVE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND, MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY OCCUR.
THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MILD NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MILD AND
VARIABLE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN
THE 40S MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT AGAIN THIS MAY LOWER BASED ON
THE SNOWPACK WE RECEIVE FROM THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. LOWS ARE FORECAST
IN THE TEENS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WITH POPS OVERNIGHT FROM 5-10% FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER WINTER
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS CURRENTLY, BUT WE WILL KNOW MORE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z AT KGLD AND
KMCK WITH MVFR STRATUS OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST
NE IN THE 10-15Z PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY IMPACTS INCREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH LIGHTER FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT EARLIER. THE BES
WINDS DO INCREASE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE 12-15KT RANGE,
AND WINDS MAY PERIODICALLY GUST TO 25KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO MINOR BLOWING SNOW
BEFORE ANY GUSTS DROP OFF BEFORE FRIDAY EVENING. THE SIGNAL FOR
BEST CHANCES FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL AT TAF SITES WOULD BE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN VISIBILITIES UNDER 3SM WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY. BRIEF/LOCALIZED DROPS UNDER 1SM MAY OCCUR IN
MODERATE SNOW POCKETS, HOWEVER TIMING/DURATION/COVERAGE OF THOSE
IMPACTS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 11 AM
MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-
042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ FRIDAY TO 11
PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ002>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MST /4 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 11 AM
MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...DR
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