244
FXUS63 KGLD 230820
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
120 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM 15
TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING MAY ALSO HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS DUE TO EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM 3-6 INCHES. POCKETS OF SNOW UP TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY CAN EXPECT
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
- 10% CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN U.S. 385
AND 83 LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
THE REST OF THE DAY, MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS, LEADING TO WINDS CHILLS AS
LOW AS -20F. IT'S LIKELY FRIDAY WILL SEE A MIDNIGHT HIGH IN THE MID
TEENS. AN 850 MB HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER NEBRASKA, TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUALLY PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNRISE WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAXIMUM FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO BE
AROUND -5 TO -15 RANGE. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STARTS TONIGHT AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MIDDAY.
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, A LOW AROUND BAJA CALIFORNIA LOOKS TO PROVIDE
700 MB SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD PUSH WARM, MOIST AIR
INTO THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE MORNING,
THE 700 MB LAYER LOOKS TO STILL BE DRY. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE EAST PUSHES MOISTURE INTO THE CWA, THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN U.S. 385 AND 83.
FOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR, TEMPERATURES WOULD NEED TO BE IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO SUPPORT SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS. IN THIS SCENARIO,
A TRACE TO 0.03 INCHES OF ICE WOULD OCCUR. CURRENT FORECAST IS THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO COLD TO SUPPORT DROPLETS, IN WHICH CASE
STRATUS WOULD OCCUR AND OCCASIONAL FLURRIES WILL FALL.
SNOW MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA AS EARLY AS 9Z, AND MOST OF THE
CWA WILL SEE SNOW BY 13-15Z. PEAK SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE BETWEEN 21-
6Z. THE EASTERN CWA WILL SEE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, AND ALSO
HAS A 15-20% CHANCE OF SEEING A SNOWBAND FORM. LOOKING AT NAM, 0-6Z
THE COLUMN IS SATURATED, AND NEAR SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE BETWEEN 7.5-9 C/KM, WITH OMEGA AROUND -5. IF A BAND FORMS,
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE AREAS WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND 8-10
INCHES.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN KANSAS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 3-6 INCHES, PROMPTING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE
ISSUED. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA LOOK TO RECEIVE 1-2.5 INCHES OF
SNOW. THESE AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE SYSTEM FAVORING
A NORTHERLY PATH AND SLRS INCREASING (AROUND 1:15-20) DUE TO THE
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. THERE IS STILL A 30% CHANCE THE SYSTEM TAKES
A MORE SOUTHERLY PATH, WHICH WOULD BASICALLY HALF THESE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO AROUND -5,
LEADING TO WIND CHILLS AROUND -15 TO -25. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE AIR
TEMPERATURES DROP EVEN COLDER, AND PUSH WIND CHILLS IN THE CENTRAL
CWA TO -30, IN WHICH CASE A COLD WEATHER WARNING WOULD NEED TO BE
ISSUED.
SATURDAY, THE MID-LEVEL COLD FRONT BASICALLY STALLS OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 0-10
DEGREES, WHICH MAY STILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES TOO WARM. WIND CHILLS
WILL LIKELY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 0 DEGREES SATURDAY.
SNOW SHOULD END BY SUNRISE SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH. THERE IS
A 20-30% CHANCE THE SYSTEM SLOWS, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING SUNDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO
AROUND 0 TO -5, PUSHING WIND CHILLS TO AROUND -15, AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
SUNDAY STARTS THE AREA OFF WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH SNOW FORECAST TO BE ON THE
GROUND ALREADY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO NOT RECOVER TOO MUCH
AND LARGELY STAY IN THE TEENS AND LOW TWENTIES. THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW, BUT
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND A TRACE TO MAYBE ONE INCH.
SUNDAY NIGHT, IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL AGAIN TO AROUND 0. WITH WINDS FORECASTING TO INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO AROUND 5-10 MPH, WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AGAIN. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE NECESSITY OF
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IF THIS HOLDS.
MONDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WE SHIFT TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH. IF THIS SETS UP, MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND A
BIT WARMER AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO BE MORE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. FOR THOSE WHO STILL
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE
20'S AND 30S, WHILE THOSE WHO HAVE LITTLE SNOW (MAINLY TO THE NORTH)
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW TO HANDLE
THE NEXT SYSTEM. WE GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WEST AND THE MAIN TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO PUSHING THE TROUGH
THROUGH AROUND THE MID-WEEK (WED/THUR) AND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
(FRI/SAT).
FOR THE EARLIER PROGRESSION, THE TROUGH WOULD PUSH THROUGH AND
GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR MASS SHORT OF MAYBE A BREAK
DAY ON TUE OR WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN
LOWER BACK INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES WHEN THE TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH AND THEN SLOWLY WARM AFTER THAT. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW
FLURRIES, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WOULD RECOVER TO
GIVE US ACCUMULATING SNOW. WINDS ALSO COULD BECOME BREEZY WHEN THE
FRONT PASSES, BUT THERE IS NO SIGNAL RIGHT NOW FOR STRONG WINDS.
FOR THE LATER PROGRESSION, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WOULD LIKELY BE
WARMER AND POTENTIALLY HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THOUGH, THE SYSTEM WOULD THEN PUSH IN AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES LIKELY INTO THE 10S, 20S, OR 30S. THERE IS ALSO A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM,
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ABOVE A FEW INCHES LOOKS TO BE
UNLIKELY.
REGARDLESS OF WHEN THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN, THE AREA WILL HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND
CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z AT KGLD AND
KMCK WITH MVFR STRATUS OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST
NE IN THE 10-15Z PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY IMPACTS INCREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH LIGHTER FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT EARLIER. THE BES
WINDS DO INCREASE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO THE 12-15KT RANGE,
AND WINDS MAY PERIODICALLY GUST TO 25KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO MINOR BLOWING SNOW
BEFORE ANY GUSTS DROP OFF BEFORE FRIDAY EVENING. THE SIGNAL FOR
BEST CHANCES FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL AT TAF SITES WOULD BE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN VISIBILITIES UNDER 3SM WOULD
BE MOST LIKELY. BRIEF/LOCALIZED DROPS UNDER 1SM MAY OCCUR IN
MODERATE SNOW POCKETS, HOWEVER TIMING/DURATION/COVERAGE OF THOSE
IMPACTS ARE TOO UNCERTAIN TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-
013>015-027-028-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...DR
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