125
FXUS63 KGLD 231113
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
413 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM 15
TO 25 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING MAY ALSO HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GOVE AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES FROM 12PM FRIDAY THROUGH 12AM SATURDAY. SNOWFALL
AROUND 7 INCHES IS FORECAST BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THE REST OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS. SNOWFALL OF 3-6 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY CAN EXPECT UP TO 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW.
- 5-10% CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH OF US-40 THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 207 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
OUR ARCTIC AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT HAVE
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BUT ARE FORECAST TO WANE AS WE LOSE THE
EFFECT OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONTINUING TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40 AS WEAK OMEGA AROUND -3 MICROBARS HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SEE IN ALL CROSS SECTIONS AS SOME LINGERING
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE VARIABLE PLAYING AGAINST FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ESSENTIALLY REMAINING
AT THE SURFACE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT VERY FINE FLURRIES IS
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME OF THIS. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE THAT
THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE HOWEVER, BUT THINK THIS THREAT WILL END AROUND
8AM MT OR 9AM CT.
SNOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INITIALLY AS EARLY AS 5AM MT THIS
MORNING AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
QUADRANT OF A MID LEVEL JET. INITIAL SNOW MAY BE MORE SPOTTY IN
NATURE THROUGH THE MORNING AS WE FIGHT TO OVERCOME SOME MID
LEVEL DRYNESS THAT IS SEEN IN SOUNDINGS. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES SYNOPTIC FORCING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A
SHORTWAVE FROM THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND THE DRY LAYER BEGINS
SATURATING. SNOW COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW STARTING AS EARLY
AS 2PM MT OR 3PM CT. WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS LINE ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15MPH
SUSTAINED WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW AS
IT IS FALLING. THIS IS AROUND THE TIME THE PEAK OF THE SNOWFALL
IS FORECAST TO START AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM A 700MB TROUGH AND
FRONTOGENESIS BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY SATURDAY AS
WE AGAIN END UP IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE OVERNIGHT
JET. CURRENT END TIME FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OF SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS GREELEY AND
WICHITA COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO KEEP ANY SNOWFALL OUT OF THE AREA.
HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A 700MB FRONTOGENESIS CONFLUENCE
BAND IS FORECAST TO ORIENTATE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
GOVE, TREGO AND GRAHAM COUNTIES LEADING TO A BAND OF HEAVIER
SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. ENSEMBLE QPF OUTPUTS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING
THE SAME SCENARIO AS WELL. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL OF 6
INCHES OR GREATER IS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF EACH RESPECTIVE
COUNTY OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MONUMENT ROCKS
TO HILL CITY. THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
AS WELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF EACH COUNTY WITH SOME
SPOTTY EPV* ACROSS THE AREA. THERE AREA QUESTION MARKS IF ENOUGH
SATURATION WILL BE PRESENT FOR CSI TO OCCUR HOWEVER. IF IT DOES
OCCUR THEN LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES MAY BE OBSERVED.
FELT THIS WAS ENOUGH COVERAGE TO WARRANT THE UPGRADE AND WITH AN
OVERALL SLIGHTLY NORTH BIAS WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF THE
COUNTY TO BE IMPACTED.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
INCLUDE CHEYENNE COUNTY AS MOST SHORT TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS
TRENDING TOWARDS HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL UP TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTY. CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THE
ADVISORY AREA REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A LARGE
AREA OF 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS. IF THE MID LEVELS CAN SATURATED QUICK
ENOUGH THIS MORNING THEN THE SURROUNDING NEBRASKA AND COLORADO
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT THERE AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE THEM. THERE IS ALSO A 20-30%
CHANCE OF MESOSCALE SNOWBAND DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
WHICH APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISMS AS SEEN
IN THE 06Z RAP CROSS SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE 06Z NAMNEST IS ALSO SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW AS WELL. IF THE LOCATION OF THIS HOLDS TRUE THEN
SHERMAN, CHEYENNE (KS), RAWLINS, THOMAS AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES
MAY BE AFFECTED BY THIS. BUT AS WE ALL KNOW MESOSCALE SNOWBANDS
ARE VERY FINICKY IN LOCATION, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SO OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW BUT IS SOMETHING NEEDS TO
HAVE AN EYE KEPT ON. THE OTHER PART TO BE AWARE OF WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THAT SNOW RATIOS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20:1, SOME
GUIDANCE DOES HAVE RATIOS AROUND 25:1 WHICH MAY BE PLAUSIBLE IF
THE SYSTEM DOES COME IN COLDER. IF THIS OCCURS THEN SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE AREA MAY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ONTO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS. OVERALL NOT MUCH
HAS CHANGED WHEN IT COMES TO THIS AS THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS INTACT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. MAIN CHANGES WERE TO CONTINUE TO
DECREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY TIME HOURS TODAY AND SATURDAY
AS COLD AIR MASSES TYPICALLY COME IN COLDER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AND THAT SEEMS TO BE THE CASE LOOKING NORTHWARD CURRENTLY
WHERE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THAT GUIDANCE HAS SEEMED TO BE PLAYING
CATCHUP THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WELL. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA AS OF 2AM MT. COLD AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
STREAMING INTO THE AREA AS DAY TIME HIGHS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER WIND IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME DURING THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD 10-15
MPH MOST LIKELY, THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND AND THE SINGLE
DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR WIND CHILLS TO
EXCEED NEGATIVE 10 DEGREES FOR THE DAY TIME. WIND CHILLS AROUND
NEGATIVE 20-24 DEGREES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AIR TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO -10 OR LOWER BUT DO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS ABOUT THIS DUE TO FULL CLOUD COVER KEEPING THE
SURFACE INSULATED. AM ALSO NOT FINDING ANY 850MB TEMPERATURES
LESS THAN -22C WHICH LEADS TO ME TO BELIEVE THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS ARE ON POINT. IF THE AIRMASS IS MORE SHALLOW AND
THE -10 DEGREE TEMPERATURES DO OCCUR THEN AN UPGRADE TO AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED AS WIND CHILLS MAY FALL TO
AROUND -30 DEGREES AS A 6-10 KNOT WIND IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS AROUND 20% TO OCCUR.
ESSENTIALLY A RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE DAY
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE
AREA. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COLORADO COUNTIES MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS DUE TO BEING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COLD
AIR MASS AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE NEW SNOWPACK. WINDS FOR THE
DAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER AROUND 5 MPH KEEPING WIND CHILLS
DURING THE DAY IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST AIR
TEMPERATURES OF THE EVENT BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR. A PERIOD OF CLEARING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE NIGHT SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AREA CLOSER TO -10 DEGREES DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED DEEPER SNOWPACK. IF WE CAN HAVE ENOUGH OF AN
EXPANSE OF FRESH SNOWPACK AND ENOUGH CLEARING THEN CONCERN IS
THERE FOR WIDESPREAD AIR TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A BIT MORE
WESTERLY WHICH MAY HELP MITIGATE HOW LOW WE CAN GO, BUT A FRESH
SNOWPACK AND OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE ENOUGH TO NEGATE
THAT. CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO IS AROUND 10-20% AT THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
SUNDAY STARTS THE AREA OFF WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH SNOW FORECAST TO BE ON THE
GROUND ALREADY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO NOT RECOVER TOO MUCH
AND LARGELY STAY IN THE TEENS AND LOW TWENTIES. THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW, BUT
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND A TRACE TO MAYBE ONE INCH.
SUNDAY NIGHT, IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL AGAIN TO AROUND 0. WITH WINDS FORECASTING TO INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO AROUND 5-10 MPH, WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AGAIN. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE NECESSITY OF
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IF THIS HOLDS.
MONDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WE SHIFT TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH. IF THIS SETS UP, MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND A
BIT WARMER AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO BE MORE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. FOR THOSE WHO STILL
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE
20'S AND 30S, WHILE THOSE WHO HAVE LITTLE SNOW (MAINLY TO THE NORTH)
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW TO HANDLE
THE NEXT SYSTEM. WE GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WEST AND THE MAIN TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO PUSHING THE TROUGH
THROUGH AROUND THE MID-WEEK (WED/THUR) AND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
(FRI/SAT).
FOR THE EARLIER PROGRESSION, THE TROUGH WOULD PUSH THROUGH AND
GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR MASS SHORT OF MAYBE A BREAK
DAY ON TUE OR WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN
LOWER BACK INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES WHEN THE TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH AND THEN SLOWLY WARM AFTER THAT. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW
FLURRIES, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WOULD RECOVER TO
GIVE US ACCUMULATING SNOW. WINDS ALSO COULD BECOME BREEZY WHEN THE
FRONT PASSES, BUT THERE IS NO SIGNAL RIGHT NOW FOR STRONG WINDS.
FOR THE LATER PROGRESSION, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WOULD LIKELY BE
WARMER AND POTENTIALLY HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THOUGH, THE SYSTEM WOULD THEN PUSH IN AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES LIKELY INTO THE 10S, 20S, OR 30S. THERE IS ALSO A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM,
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ABOVE A FEW INCHES LOOKS TO BE
UNLIKELY.
REGARDLESS OF WHEN THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN, THE AREA WILL HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND
CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 408 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE IN LOW STRATUS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT GLD AND
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MCK AROUND 15Z. SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT GLD THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING A BIT MORE
FREQUENT AFTER THIS. A 30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIESFALLING SOME ESPECIALLY IF IT CAN OCCUR WHEN WINDS
ARE A LITTLE BREEZY CURRENTLY FAVORING GLD. LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO
DEVELOP AROUND MCK BUT THE LACK OF WIND MAY NOT BRING ANY
VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW 6SM. SNOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST AS WELL AND IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. BE AWARE OF ICING IF FLYING AS WELL AS
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL OCCUR TODAY
ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-
013>015-027-028-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ016-029.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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