555
FXUS63 KGLD 232121
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM 15
TO 24 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING MAY ALSO HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GOVE AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES FROM 12PM FRIDAY THROUGH 12AM SATURDAY. SNOWFALL
AROUND 7 INCHES IS FORECAST BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THE REST OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS. SNOWFALL OF 3-6 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY CAN EXPECT UP TO 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
NO CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS. THAT BEING SAID, THERE
IS STILL A CONCERN THAT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE UNDERDONE IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SNOW RATIOS
MAY BE DRIVING THIS, SINCE THE NBM IS USING VALUES CLOSE TO
20:1, BUT IN THIS COLD AIR THEY MAY BE CLOSER TO 30:1 OR HIGHER
(A MEASUREMENT AT 19Z YIELDED 35:1), WHICH WOULD ADD A FEW
INCHES TO THE TOTALS. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS, ECMWF AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT HRRR, USING HIGHER RATIOS, ALSO SHOW AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS (6-8") ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THAT STRETCHES AS FAR WEST AS COLORADO. CONFIDENCE
LEVEL IS PROBABLY AROUND 50% FOR THIS OCCURRING. OTHERWISE,
TIMING IS STILL ON TRACK WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON (UP TO 1"), THEN INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING MORE OR LESS
AS EXPECTED, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER, AND WIND CHILLS
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 24 BELOW RANGE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1". STILL NOT SEEING WIND AS A FACTOR FOR
THIS EVENT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING
THE WARMING PROCESS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
SUNDAY STARTS THE AREA OFF WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WITH SNOW FORECAST TO BE ON THE
GROUND ALREADY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO NOT RECOVER TOO MUCH
AND LARGELY STAY IN THE TEENS AND LOW TWENTIES. THE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BRING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW, BUT
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND A TRACE TO MAYBE ONE INCH.
SUNDAY NIGHT, IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
COOL AGAIN TO AROUND 0. WITH WINDS FORECASTING TO INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE NIGHT TO AROUND 5-10 MPH, WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AGAIN. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE NECESSITY OF
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IF THIS HOLDS.
MONDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND WE SHIFT TO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH. IF THIS SETS UP, MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND A
BIT WARMER AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO BE MORE FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. FOR THOSE WHO STILL
HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ONLY WARM INTO THE
20'S AND 30S, WHILE THOSE WHO HAVE LITTLE SNOW (MAINLY TO THE NORTH)
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW TO HANDLE
THE NEXT SYSTEM. WE GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WEST AND THE MAIN TROUGH TO THE
EAST. THE ISSUE AT HAND IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS. GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO PUSHING THE TROUGH
THROUGH AROUND THE MID-WEEK (WED/THUR) AND LATE IN THE WORK WEEK
(FRI/SAT).
FOR THE EARLIER PROGRESSION, THE TROUGH WOULD PUSH THROUGH AND
GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA IN THE COLD AIR MASS SHORT OF MAYBE A BREAK
DAY ON TUE OR WED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN
LOWER BACK INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES WHEN THE TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH AND THEN SLOWLY WARM AFTER THAT. THERE MIGHT BE A FEW
FLURRIES, BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WOULD RECOVER TO
GIVE US ACCUMULATING SNOW. WINDS ALSO COULD BECOME BREEZY WHEN THE
FRONT PASSES, BUT THERE IS NO SIGNAL RIGHT NOW FOR STRONG WINDS.
FOR THE LATER PROGRESSION, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WOULD LIKELY BE
WARMER AND POTENTIALLY HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THOUGH, THE SYSTEM WOULD THEN PUSH IN AND
LOWER TEMPERATURES LIKELY INTO THE 10S, 20S, OR 30S. THERE IS ALSO A
HIGHER CHANCE FOR SNOW WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM,
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ABOVE A FEW INCHES LOOKS TO BE
UNLIKELY.
REGARDLESS OF WHEN THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN, THE AREA WILL HAVE THE
CHANCE FOR VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR WIND
CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK, THEN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AT KGLD TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW LULLS, BUT
THEN MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE SNOW,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGLD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/
SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>015-027-028-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
KSZ016-029.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page