334
FXUS63 KGLD 232151
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
251 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM 15
TO 24 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING MAY ALSO HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GOVE AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES FROM 12PM FRIDAY THROUGH 12AM SATURDAY. SNOWFALL
AROUND 7 INCHES IS FORECAST BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THE REST OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS. SNOWFALL OF 3-6 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY CAN EXPECT UP TO 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
NO CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS. THAT BEING SAID, THERE
IS STILL A CONCERN THAT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE UNDERDONE IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SNOW RATIOS
MAY BE DRIVING THIS, SINCE THE NBM IS USING VALUES CLOSE TO
20:1, BUT IN THIS COLD AIR THEY MAY BE CLOSER TO 30:1 OR HIGHER
(A MEASUREMENT AT 19Z YIELDED 35:1), WHICH WOULD ADD A FEW
INCHES TO THE TOTALS. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS, ECMWF AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT HRRR, USING HIGHER RATIOS, ALSO SHOW AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS (6-8") ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THAT STRETCHES AS FAR WEST AS COLORADO. CONFIDENCE
LEVEL IS PROBABLY AROUND 50% FOR THIS OCCURRING. OTHERWISE,
TIMING IS STILL ON TRACK WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON (UP TO 1"), THEN INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING MORE OR LESS
AS EXPECTED, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER, AND WIND CHILLS
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 24 BELOW RANGE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1". STILL NOT SEEING WIND AS A FACTOR FOR
THIS EVENT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGINNING
THE WARMING PROCESS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
TUESDAY WE REMAIN IN A MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH A
PROMINENT RIDGE BUILDING WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND A LOW
DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY. THIS KEEPS OUR
WEATHER PATTERN MILD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 40S AND
LOWS IN THE TEENS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MILD AND VARIABLE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA).
THE LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION DEEPENS WEDNESDAY CAUSING OUR
REGION TO ENTER A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO PRESENT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR
AND WARMING TO OCCUR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 40S WITH
SOME AREAS SEEING LOW 50S. LOWS REMAIN IN THE TEENS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE HIGH 30S/LOW 40S
THURSDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY
IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT SWEEPS THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CURRENTLY, THE TROUGH DIGS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH THAT PRECIPITATIONS CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THE REGION.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE FROM 5-10% OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF IF WE RECEIVE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM, THINGS WILL COOL DOWN WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE TEENS.
SOME AREAS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY SEE SINGLE DIGITS.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE MILD AND VARIABLE, SO WIND CHILLS
ARE NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1006 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK, THEN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AT KGLD TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL VFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW LULLS, BUT
THEN MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING, MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE SNOW,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR AT KGLD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/
SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>015-027-028-041-042.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
KSZ016-029.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...024
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page