624
FXUS63 KGLD 240828
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
128 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR
THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA. WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM 15
TO 24 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. MONDAY
MORNING MAY ALSO HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GOVE AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES FROM 12PM FRIDAY THROUGH 12AM SATURDAY. SNOWFALL
AROUND 7 INCHES IS FORECAST BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT.
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR THE REST OF NORTHWEST
KANSAS. SNOWFALL OF 3-6 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY CAN EXPECT UP TO 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
NO CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING HIGHLIGHTS. THAT BEING SAID, THERE
IS STILL A CONCERN THAT SNOW AMOUNTS MAY BE UNDERDONE IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. SNOW RATIOS
MAY BE DRIVING THIS, SINCE THE NBM IS USING VALUES CLOSE TO
20:1, BUT IN THIS COLD AIR THEY MAY BE CLOSER TO 30:1 OR HIGHER
(A MEASUREMENT AT 19Z YIELDED 35:1), WHICH WOULD ADD A FEW
INCHES TO THE TOTALS. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS, ECMWF AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT HRRR, USING HIGHER RATIOS, ALSO SHOW AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS (6-8") ALONG THE
I-70 CORRIDOR THAT STRETCHES AS FAR WEST AS COLORADO. CONFIDENCE
LEVEL IS PROBABLY AROUND 50% FOR THIS OCCURRING. OTHERWISE,
TIMING IS STILL ON TRACK WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON (UP TO 1"), THEN INCREASING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING MORE OR LESS
AS EXPECTED, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES COLDER, AND WIND CHILLS
REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 24 BELOW RANGE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SECONDARY
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1". STILL NOT SEEING WIND AS A FACTOR FOR
THIS EVENT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO START WITH SOME WIND
CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ON MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE WITH SUNNY SKIES
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THAT BEING SAID, LOCALES CLOSER TO CENTRAL
KANSAS MAY STILL HAVE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND AND ONLY WARM INTO THE
30S.
TUESDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A LARGER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE TROUGH
STILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WITH
THIS, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS. DAYTIME HIGHS MAY BE A BIT COOLER
IF A SHORTWAVE CAN MOVE THROUGH THE LARGER FLOW AS SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AND BRING SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH.
WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY FAVORING THE RIDGE SLIDING OVER
THE AREA WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE EAST BEGINS SWINGING THROUGH
THE PLAINS. SHOULD THIS HOLD, TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OTHER LOW CHANCE SCENARIO IS THAT
THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH AMPLIFIES AND SPEEDS UP, BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN THIS SCENARIO, DAYTIME
HIGHS WOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER AND WINDS A LITTLE GUSTIER, WITH GUSTS
NEARING 40-50 MPH AS THE FRONT PASSES.
THURSDAY AND INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK IS WHERE MORE UNCERTAINTY
CREEPS IN. IF THE TROUGH DOES DIG WEST, THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD
BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING TO END THE
WEEK. OTHERWISE, THE NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WOULD CONTINUE UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WOULD SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
BRING A COOL DOWN. IN EITHER SCENARIO, NEITHER STRONG WINDS NOR
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE A CONCERN WITH MOST GUIDANCE REMAINING DRY
AND KEEPING WIND GUSTS BELOW 45 MPH. THE ONLY POTENTIAL HAZARD RIGHT
NOW LOOKS TO BE THE RETURN OF VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVES
TEENS OR COOLER IF THE TROUGH GETS DEEP ENOUGH AND BRINGS A VERY
COLD AIR MASS INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT
CHANCE IS ABOUT 15%.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN VARIABLE AT KGLD AND KMCK AS LIGHT
SNOW LINGERING OVER THE REGION DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD.
CEILINGS ARE VARYING FROM VFR TO MVFR EARLY ON (2000-4000 FT
AGL), WITH VISIBILITIES GENERALLY PREVAILING AT MVFR (BRIEF
DROPS TO IFR). THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE FOR LIFR VISIBILITIES IF
A MODERATE POCKET OF SNOW WERE TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERMINALS,
BUT CHANCES ARE DECREASING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/OB TRENDS. THE
SYSTEM TRANSITIONS EAST AND SNOW/LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD START TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH TO
THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHTER SNOW OR FLURRIES TO
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING IN KS, HOWEVER
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY AT THAT TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST /MIDNIGHT CST/ THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR COZ090>092.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ SUNDAY FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...DR
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